Faye Bennet Maisa W Singles

HostNavy
Date09/25/2010
TypeConference Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Arielle Delisser '14	73
2	U. S. Naval Academy	Marissa Lihan '14	85
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Kelly Crane '11	86
4	Old Dominion University	Morgan Wilson '11	95
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Mayumi Roller '13	114
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Caroline Patten '11	137
7	Georgetown University	Sydney Bolger '12	146
8	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Brooke Lyon '14	151
9	Georgetown University	Nancy Hagood '14	167
10	Georgetown University	Emily Gowell '13	179
11	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Kayla Mccomb '13	190
12	Cornell University	Lauren Turner '13	204
13	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Lauren Schoene '13	215
14	Old Dominion University	Corina Radtke '14	224
15	U. S. Naval Academy	Killian Corbishley '14	228
16	Old Dominion University	Katie Cummings '14	253
17	Old Dominion University	Rachel Austin '14	256
18	Cornell University	Alison Love '11	275

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	R17	R18	TOT
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Arielle Delisser '14	9	1	1	8	6	2	4	1	5	4	9	2	11	2	1	1	2	4	73
U. S. Naval Academy	Marissa Lihan '14	2	7	5	6	9	5	8	3	1	3	4	5	5	1	8	9	3	1	85
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Kelly Crane '11	6	5	4	1	5	3	3	2	7	6	5	1	3	14	7	5	6	3	86
Old Dominion University	Morgan Wilson '11	1	2	2	5	3	1	6	6	18	7	1	6	6	4	9	10	1	7	95
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Mayumi Roller '13	3	3	10	2	4	6	2	4	12	8	3	10	10	6	4	13	4	10	114
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Caroline Patten '11	11	4	7	4	10	9	12	10	4	5	6	3	12	9	2	16	11	2	137
Georgetown University	Sydney Bolger '12	4	8	6	3	14	8	7	12	15	1	2	8	15	3	12	14	5	9	146
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Brooke Lyon '14	5	14	8	10	2	13	9	18	2	2	13	9	1	12	3	6	7	17	151
Georgetown University	Nancy Hagood '14	8	10	11	12	1	4	1	16	11	13	8	12	7	16	15	3	8	11	167
Georgetown University	Emily Gowell '13	15	9	3	15	13	10	5	8	6	11	10	13	2	7	6	17	15	14	179
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Kayla Mccomb '13	12	13	15	13	17	11	13	11	3	9	11	4	9	10	10	12	9	8	190
Cornell University	Lauren Turner '13	7	16	13	7	15	12	18	9	9	10	7	11	4	11	18	15	17	5	204
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Lauren Schoene '13	14	12	12	9	12	15	10	14	13	18	15	7	14	8	5	11	10	16	215
Old Dominion University	Corina Radtke '14	13	15	9	14	7	14	14	13	16	16	12	15	16	5	16	4	13	12	224
U. S. Naval Academy	Killian Corbishley '14	17	6	14	11	8	17	11	7	10	14	14	16	8	13	13	18	18	13	228
Old Dominion University	Katie Cummings '14	16	11	18	17	16	7	15	17	8	12	17	14	17	15	17	2	16	18	253
Old Dominion University	Rachel Austin '14	10	17	16	16	11	16	17	15	14	15	16	17	13	17	11	8	12	15	256
Cornell University	Alison Love '11	18	18	17	18	18	18	16	5	17	17	18	18	18	18	14	7	14	6	275

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 18 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Arielle Delisser '14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2	18/18	2.27	3.47	+1.20	59th → 90th	7.5	2%	4.1 / 7.7
2	Marissa Lihan '14	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	18/18	1.72	3.30	+1.58	43rd → 87th	12.6	1%	4.7 / 9.2
3	Kelly Crane '11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1	18/18	1.89	3.19	+1.30	48th → 85th	8.8	5%	4.8 / 8.7
4	Morgan Wilson '11	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	18/18	1.80	2.81	+1.01	44th → 76th	5.2	7%	5.3 / 9.0
5	Mayumi Roller '13	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	18/18	1.84	2.69	+0.85	46th → 71st	4.3	10%	6.3 / 8.9
6	Caroline Patten '11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	18/18	2.18	2.25	+0.07	57th → 59th	0.0	47%	7.6 / 8.0
7	Sydney Bolger '12	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	18/18	2.48	2.03	−0.45	62nd → 53rd	1.6	67%	8.1 / 7.2
8	Brooke Lyon '14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3	18/18	1.35	1.80	+0.45	32nd → 44th	1.2	19%	8.4 / 10.2
9	Nancy Hagood '14	Georgetown University Hoyas 3	18/18	1.48	1.78	+0.30	37th → 44th	0.6	39%	9.3 / 9.9
10	Emily Gowell '13	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	18/18	1.57	1.64	+0.07	39th → 40th	0.0	56%	9.9 / 9.6
11	Kayla Mccomb '13	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3	18/18	1.46	1.61	+0.15	36th → 40th	0.2	58%	10.6 / 10.0
12	Lauren Turner '13	Cornell University Big Red 2	18/18	1.17	1.15	−0.03	27th → 25th	0.0	61%	11.3 / 10.6
13	Lauren Schoene '13	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	18/18	1.36	1.23	−0.12	32nd → 29th	0.1	77%	11.9 / 10.1
14	Corina Radtke '14	Old Dominion University Monarchs 4	18/18	1.36	1.17	−0.19	32nd → 27th	0.3	86%	12.4 / 10.3
15	Killian Corbishley '14	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	18/18	1.37	0.87	−0.51	33rd → 20th	1.8	84%	12.7 / 10.1
16	Katie Cummings '14	Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	18/18	1.71	0.39	−1.31	42nd → 12th	14.3	98%	14.1 / 9.3
17	Rachel Austin '14	Old Dominion University Monarchs 3	18/18	1.21	0.72	−0.49	28th → 17th	1.9	97%	14.2 / 10.6
18	Alison Love '11	Cornell University Big Red 1	18/18	0.86	-0.48	−1.34	20th → 3rd	9.5	94%	15.3 / 11.5

Conditions — 09/25/2010 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 49% · Pressure 1010.9 hPa

Temperature

82°F

↑ 87°F ↓ 74°F

Feels like 84°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.8 kn

avg · max 8.4 kn

Gusts to 16.3 kn

From SW (214°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover26% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1010.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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