ICSA Women's Singlehanded's

Women's
HostSouth Florida
Date11/05/2010
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Yale University	Claire Dennis '13	50
2	Boston College	Anne Haeger '12	51
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Arielle Delisser '14	85
4	Yale University	Emily Billing '13	86
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Krysta Rohde '11	97
6	Stanford University	Molly Mckinney '14	106
7	U. S. Naval Academy	Marissa Lihan '14	131
8	Western Washington University	Erika Vranizan '12	148
9	Stanford University	Sarah Mace '14	171
10	Brown University	Elizabeth Barry '11	172
11	University of South Florida	Abby Featherstone '13	195
12	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Rebekka Urbina '12	220
13	Eckerd College	Emilie Mademann '12	232
14	Old Dominion University	Morgan Wilson '11	233
15	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Kelly Crane '11	253
16	University of Minnesota	Allison Prange '11	261
17	College of Charleston	Corey Hall '12	272
18	University of Minnesota	Natalie Sinn '12	328

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	R17	R18	TOT
Yale University	Claire Dennis '13	9	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	5	2	2	1	5	2	1	11	4	50
Boston College	Anne Haeger '12	1	3	2	5	6	2	5	3	2	2	4	1	2	4	1	3	3	2	51
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Arielle Delisser '14	3	2	6	6	5	10	4	2	6	4	3	9	4	1	8	6	5	1	85
Yale University	Emily Billing '13	7	5	5	2	2	7	2	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	7	4	1	3	86
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Krysta Rohde '11	10	8	3	4	7	3	6	6	10	1	14	3	3	2	3	5	2	7	97
Stanford University	Molly Mckinney '14	11	4	4	3	3	16	3	4	4	3	5	7	8	8	5	2	4	12	106
U. S. Naval Academy	Marissa Lihan '14	4	6	7	7	4	5	7	7	7	8	17	8	7	3	11	9	8	6	131
Western Washington University	Erika Vranizan '12	13	10	11	8	9	6	10	10	3	12	1	4	5	11	6	7	12	10	148
Stanford University	Sarah Mace '14	8	7	9	16	13	4	8	8	17	9	7	5	16	6	4	8	7	OCS	171
Brown University	Elizabeth Barry '11	2	BKD	8	9	8	12	11	11	8	7	13	16	9	13	9	10	9	9	172
University of South Florida	Abby Featherstone '13	5	9	14	10	14	13	15	12	13	15	8	10	12	9	12	13	6	5	195
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Rebekka Urbina '12	16	14	12	11	15	17	9	9	11	10	9	11	14	15	13	11	10	13	220
Eckerd College	Emilie Mademann '12	17	12	OCS	14	11	8	14	14	9	11	16	14	11	10	15	15	14	8	232
Old Dominion University	Morgan Wilson '11	15	11	13	13	10	14	12	15	14	13	11	13	15	14	10	14	15	11	233
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Kelly Crane '11	6	17	10	15	16	15	13	17	15	14	12	17	13	16	17	12	13	15	253
University of Minnesota	Allison Prange '11	14	13	DNS	12	17	11	17	16	12	17	10	12	10	DNF	14	17	17	14	261
College of Charleston	Corey Hall '12	12	15	DNF	DNS	12	9	16	13	16	16	15	15	DNF	12	16	16	16	16	272
University of Minnesota	Natalie Sinn '12	18	18	15	17	18	DNS	18	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	18	18	17	328

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

— in the performance column: last in every race sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Division A 18 boats · 18 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Claire Dennis '13	Yale University Elis	18/18	2.36	4.35	+1.99	60th → 98th	16.7	<1%	2.8 / 8.0
2	Anne Haeger '12	Boston College	18/18	2.81	4.43	+1.63	76th → 99th	11.9	<1%	2.8 / 6.8
3	Arielle Delisser '14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	18/18	2.27	3.40	+1.13	59th → 89th	6.9	3%	4.7 / 8.2
4	Emily Billing '13	Yale University Bulldogs	18/18	2.09	3.42	+1.33	55th → 89th	9.3	2%	4.8 / 8.8
5	Krysta Rohde '11	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	18/18	1.96	3.09	+1.13	50th → 83rd	6.9	6%	5.4 / 9.1
6	Molly Mckinney '14	Stanford University Cardinal 2	18/18	2.01	2.79	+0.79	52nd → 75th	3.5	6%	5.9 / 9.0
7	Marissa Lihan '14	U. S. Naval Academy	18/18	1.76	2.47	+0.70	43rd → 62nd	2.8	12%	7.3 / 9.6
8	Erika Vranizan '12	Western Washington University	18/18	0.82	2.31	+1.50	18th → 60th	12.0	7%	8.2 / 12.0
9	Sarah Mace '14	Stanford University Cardinal 1	18/18	2.20	1.70	−0.49	58th → 42nd	1.5	66%	9.5 / 8.5
10	Elizabeth Barry '11	Brown University	18/18	2.36	1.89	−0.47	61st → 48th	1.7	81%	10.2 / 8.0
11	Abby Featherstone '13	University of South Florida	18/18	1.56	1.60	+0.04	39th → 40th	0.0	59%	10.8 / 10.2
12	Rebekka Urbina '12	Texas A&M University at Galveston	18/18	1.05	1.30	+0.25	24th → 30th	0.4	61%	12.2 / 11.5
13	Emilie Mademann '12	Eckerd College	18/18	1.61	1.27	−0.34	40th → 30th	0.9	88%	12.9 / 9.9
14	Morgan Wilson '11	Old Dominion University	18/18	1.87	1.19	−0.67	47th → 28th	3.9	92%	12.9 / 9.4
15	Kelly Crane '11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	18/18	1.99	0.49	−1.50	51st → 14th	18.0	98%	14.1 / 9.0
16	Allison Prange '11	University of Minnesota Minnesota Women 1	18/18	0.90	0.84	−0.06	21st → 18th	0.0	87%	14.5 / 11.9
17	Corey Hall '12	College of Charleston	18/18	1.90	0.77	−1.13	48th → 18th	9.7	>99%	15.1 / 9.3
18	Natalie Sinn '12	University of Minnesota Minnesota Women 2	18/18	0.99	—	—	22nd → —	23.8	>99%	18.2 / 11.7

Conditions — 11/05/2010 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 50% · Pressure 1013.0 hPa

Temperature

63°F

↑ 64°F ↓ 61°F

Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

13.2 kn

avg · max 14.3 kn

Gusts to 27.0 kn

From NNW (333°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover80% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1013.0 hPa

What this breeze does at South Florida — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at South Florida in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.07)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled fleet-race days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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