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Cedarfest Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Western Michigan 17 14 31
2 University of Toledo University of Toledo Toledo 22 22 44
3 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 21 30 51
4 Ohio State University Ohio State University The Ohio State Univ. 19 33 52
5 Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 38 14 52
6 Michigan State University Michigan State University Michigan State 32 28 60
7 Denison University Denison University Big Red 38 29 67
8 Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 36 37 73
9 Bowling Green State University Bowling Green State University Bowling Green 24 50 74
10 University of Akron University of Akron Akron 42 36 78
11 Miami University Miami University Miami University 45 41 86
12 John Carroll John Carroll John Carroll 65 65 130
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Western Michigan 4 5 2 1 5 17 Aras Karaitis '12
Vytenis Karaitis '14
Ohio State University Ohio State University The Ohio State Univ. 1 3 5 2 8 19 Adam Gilbertson '13
Nathan Volchko '15
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 5 2 7 6 1 21 Gabrielle Salvaterra '14
Molly Conroy '13
University of Toledo University of Toledo Toledo 3 1 1 DNF 4 22 Scott Marriott '12 [1-5]
Miruna Scutea '13 [1-4]
Eric Frissell '11 [5]
Bowling Green State University Bowling Green State University Bowling Green 2 4 8 8 2 24 Ryan Kyle '?? [1-5]
Cory Vanhouten '13 [1, 3, 5]
Sam Logan '14 [2, 4]
Michigan State University Michigan State University Michigan State 8 6 3 4 11 32 Milan Griffes '14
Colton Radenbaugh '15
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 6 8 DNF 3 6 36 Maggie Kloote '15
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 7 10 9 5 7 38 Hannah Kratz '12
Kerry Mclaughlin '14
Denison University Denison University Big Red 9 7 4 9 9 38 Tara Foster '14
Elisabeth Bertolett '15
University of Akron University of Akron Akron 10 9 10 10 3 42 Carl Hotz '13 [1-2, 5]
Richard Howes '13 [3-4]
Haley Carman '12 [1-2, 5]
Michelle Lazanich '11 [3-4]
Miami University Miami University Miami University 11 11 6 7 10 45 Nathaniel Wicke '14
Connor Houlahan '15
John Carroll John Carroll John Carroll DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 65
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Western Michigan 3 5 3 2 1 14 John Buzzell '14
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 5 4 1 1 3 14 Seth Kratz '14 [1-2, 5]
Matthew Leon '13 [3-4]
Charlie Coombs '14 [1-2, 5]
University of Toledo University of Toledo Toledo 2 3 6 5 6 22 Christopher Fortesue '13
Connor Kress '14
Michigan State University Michigan State University Michigan State 1 9 7 7 4 28 Bill Weiland '14
Nicholas Caudell '15
Denison University Denison University Big Red 6 6 2 4 11 29 Nicolas Lyman '15
Erin White '11
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 9 8 5 6 2 30 Carson Potter '14
Emily Fontaine '14
Ohio State University Ohio State University The Ohio State Univ. 4 BKD 10 10 7 33 Andrew Miller '12
Peter Callahan '14
University of Akron University of Akron Akron 11 DNS 4 3 5 36 Ben Warner '15 [1-2, 5]
Daniel Clark '15 [3-4]
Andrew Logan '15 [1-2, 5]
Ben Warner '15 [3-4]
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 10 1 9 8 9 37 Brendan Wolohan '12
Kara Peltier '12
Miami University Miami University Miami University 7 7 8 9 10 41 Connor Doyle '13 [1-5]
Stephen Shade '15 [1, 3, 5]
Tyler Eltringham '15 [2, 4]
Bowling Green State University Bowling Green State University Bowling Green 8 10 DNS 11 8 50 Hilary Rieman '13
Lindsay Durham '14
John Carroll John Carroll John Carroll DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 65
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2011 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
University of AkronUniversity of Akron Akron11336
Bowling Green State UniversityBowling Green State University Bowling Green22447
Denison UniversityDenison University Big Red33669
John CarrollJohn Carroll John Carroll1515224
Miami UniversityMiami University Miami University447710
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Michigan State669912
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One77101013
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats99121214
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats1010131415
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University The Ohio State Univ.121214141
University of ToledoUniversity of Toledo Toledo131315152
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Western Michigan1414113

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
University of AkronUniversity of Akron Akron22447
Bowling Green State UniversityBowling Green State University Bowling Green33669
Denison UniversityDenison University Big Red447710
John CarrollJohn Carroll John Carroll11336
Miami UniversityMiami University Miami University669912
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Michigan State77101013
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One99121214
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats1010131315
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats121214141
Ohio State UniversityOhio State University The Ohio State Univ.131315152
University of ToledoUniversity of Toledo Toledo1414113
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Western Michigan1515224

Conditions — 10/01/2011 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1022.9 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 51°F   ↓ 43°F
Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.3 kn
avg  ·  max 13.8 kn
Gusts to 29.0 kn
From N (3°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover65% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1022.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 14 kn* · N 12 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Michigan State: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.17 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.11 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Michigan State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Michigan State, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →