Laser North

HostKings Point
Date09/13/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Queen's University	John Machum '17	42
2	SUNY Maritime College	Nick Valente '16	64
3	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Austin Neuman '16	91
4	SUNY Maritime College	Zachary Hill '18	100
5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Connor Swikart '18	107
6	Fordham University	Will Holz '17	108
7	Queen's University	Matthew Sherar '17	111
8	University of Pennsylvania	Keen Butcher '18	117
9	Cornell University	Daniel Birmingham '17	122
10	Cornell University	Matthew Schofield '17	137
11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Chris Wilson '16	156
12	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Ryan Wood '17	183
13	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Sam Hallowell '16	200
14	Fordham University	Anders Ekholm '17	210
15	Cornell University	Philippe Williamson '16	213
16	SUNY Stony Brook	Constantine Spentzos '17	214
17	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Devin Keister '18	218
18	Syracuse University	Nicholas Woviotis '15	222
19	SUNY Maritime College	James Keegan '16	238
20	SUNY Stony Brook	Cody Murphy '17	284

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	TOT
Queen's University	John Machum '17	1	BKD	1	1	3	2	1	1	7	1	8	1	2	6	4	42
SUNY Maritime College	Nick Valente '16	5	10	3	2	1	13	2	3	1	2	5	4	4	2	7	64
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Austin Neuman '16	2	4	2	10	10	7	5	10	5	4	4	12	13	1	2	91
SUNY Maritime College	Zachary Hill '18	16	2	7	4	7	6	8	9	6	18	1	3	3	7	3	100
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Connor Swikart '18	4	1	15	3	19	9	4	7	3	3	9	7	6	3	14	107
Fordham University	Will Holz '17	8	11	6	5	5	8	7	12	OCS	7	3	5	5	4	1	108
Queen's University	Matthew Sherar '17	12	12	5	6	2	3	6	2	OCS	6	7	14	1	8	6	111
University of Pennsylvania	Keen Butcher '18	6	8	8	9	8	4	3	6	OCS	11	6	10	7	5	5	117
Cornell University	Daniel Birmingham '17	3	9	4	15	4	5	16	5	2	5	16	6	10	13	9	122
Cornell University	Matthew Schofield '17	9	14	16	14	6	1	9	4	OCS	10	2	2	8	9	12	137
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Chris Wilson '16	10	18	9	7	9	11	13	8	4	9	12	11	9	18	8	156
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Ryan Wood '17	11	6	13	16	12	15	11	13	15	14	13	8	16	10	10	183
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Sam Hallowell '16	7	16	11	8	16	12	10	11	10	15	15	19	15	17	18	200
Fordham University	Anders Ekholm '17	17	15	19	12	11	14	12	14	12	8	18	17	14	12	15	210
Cornell University	Philippe Williamson '16	19	3	10	11	15	16	BKD	19	13	12	19	15	12	16	19	213
SUNY Stony Brook	Constantine Spentzos '17	14	13	18	20	18	19	14	20	9	13	14	9	11	11	11	214
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Devin Keister '18	13	5	17	18	14	17	17	17	11	16	11	13	18	14	17	218
Syracuse University	Nicholas Woviotis '15	15	17	14	13	13	18	19	15	8	17	10	18	17	15	13	222
SUNY Maritime College	James Keegan '16	18	7	12	17	17	10	15	18	14	20	20	16	19	19	16	238
SUNY Stony Brook	Cody Murphy '17	20	19	20	19	20	20	18	16	16	19	17	20	20	20	20	284

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 20 boats · 15 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	John Machum '17	Queen's University Gaels 1	15/15	1.45	4.23	+2.77	36th → 98th	22.7	1%	4.0 / 10.3
2	Nick Valente '16	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1	15/15	2.72	3.34	+0.62	72nd → 89th	1.8	9%	4.3 / 6.8
3	Austin Neuman '16	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1	15/15	1.84	2.68	+0.84	46th → 71st	3.4	8%	6.1 / 9.2
4	Zachary Hill '18	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3	15/15	2.65	2.19	−0.46	70th → 58th	1.2	47%	6.7 / 7.0
5	Connor Swikart '18	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3	15/15	1.85	2.07	+0.22	46th → 53rd	0.2	18%	7.1 / 9.2
6	Will Holz '17	Fordham University Rams 2	15/15	2.31	2.79	+0.48	60th → 75th	1.1	40%	7.2 / 7.9
7	Matthew Sherar '17	Queen's University Gaels 2	15/15	1.07	2.67	+1.60	25th → 71st	10.2	7%	7.4 / 11.5
8	Keen Butcher '18	University of Pennsylvania	15/15	2.34	2.63	+0.29	60th → 69th	0.4	55%	7.8 / 7.7
9	Daniel Birmingham '17	Cornell University Big Red 2	15/15	1.73	1.93	+0.20	43rd → 49th	0.2	28%	8.1 / 9.5
10	Matthew Schofield '17	Cornell University Big Red 1	15/15	2.23	2.01	−0.23	58th → 52nd	0.3	67%	9.1 / 8.1
11	Chris Wilson '16	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2	15/15	1.55	1.44	−0.11	38th → 35th	0.1	58%	10.4 / 10.0
12	Ryan Wood '17	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2	15/15	0.67	1.17	+0.50	17th → 27th	1.3	43%	12.2 / 12.6
13	Sam Hallowell '16	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1	15/15	1.08^u	0.82	−0.27	25th → 18th	0.4	75%	13.3 / 11.4
14	Anders Ekholm '17	Fordham University Rams 1	15/15	1.69	0.68	−1.01	42nd → 17th	7.3	94%	14.0 / 9.8
15	Constantine Spentzos '17	SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2	15/15	0.60	0.38	−0.23	15th → 12th	0.3	70%	14.3 / 12.8
16	Devin Keister '18	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3	15/15	1.22	0.55	−0.67	29th → 15th	3.1	94%	14.5 / 11.1
17	Philippe Williamson '16	Cornell University Big Red 3	15/15	0.35	0.49	+0.14	11th → 14th	0.1	67%	14.7 / 13.4
18	Nicholas Woviotis '15	Syracuse University	15/15	-0.04	0.56	+0.60	6th → 15th	1.8	53%	14.8 / 14.4
19	James Keegan '16	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2	15/15	0.88	-0.06	−0.94	21st → 5th	5.3	93%	15.9 / 12.0
20	Cody Murphy '17	SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1	15/15	-0.55	-1.74	−1.19	2nd → 1st	4.1	97%	18.9 / 15.5

Conditions — 09/13/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 75% · Pressure 1020.7 hPa

Temperature

66°F

↑ 68°F ↓ 64°F

Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.4 kn

avg · max 11.4 kn

Gusts to 22.2 kn

From E (98°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine1.3 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1020.7 hPa Rain0.32 in

What this breeze does at Kings Point — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Kings Point in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kings Point by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (80 labelled fleet-race days at Kings Point).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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