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Cayuga Lake Invite

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 35 35
2 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 45 45
3 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 5 76 76
4 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 5 76 76
5 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 4 82 82
6 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 83 83
7 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 6 93 93
8 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 102 102
9 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 108 108
10 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 108 108
11 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 7 113 113
12 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4 116 116
13 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 8 146 146
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 1 1 3 2 7 2 1 9 1 1 4 1 2 35 Clark Uhl '19
Sally Wilmot '22
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 2 3 1 1 2 1 4 1 3 2 11 10 4 45 Gabby Rizika '20
Diana Otis '19
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 5 3 5 4 5 3 5 7 11 13 9 1 2 8 76 Gerard Eastman '21
Louisa Bjerke '22
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 5 5 2 6 4 5 7 5 8 6 13 7 3 5 76 Charles Kilvert '20
Katherine Klempen '22
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 4 4 6 10 7 1 11 8 13 4 8 5 4 1 82 Brooke Shachoy '22
Adeline Sutton '21
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 8 8 2 3 4 13 3 5 11 5 3 7 11 83 Blake Stackpoole '22
Aaron Tsuchitori '22
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 6 9 7 5 8 9 12 2 2 2 12 6 12 7 93 Phillip Schofield '21
Halle Buescher '21
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 6 4 13 13 11 10 11 4 5 7 2 6 10 102 Alex Fowkes '20
Miranda Sannino '20
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 7 9 7 9 13 4 12 7 10 4 12 11 3 108 Ella Withington '22
Blair Reilly '22
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 13 12 9 6 8 3 9 10 9 3 8 5 13 108 Caroline Martocci '22
Anna Flaherty '20
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 7 12 13 11 12 6 8 10 3 8 6 10 8 6 113 Tom O'Shea '21
Emily Hughes '21
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4 10 11 8 10 12 9 6 6 7 10 9 9 9 116 Sarah Smith '22
Leah Trow '19
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 8 11 10 12 11 10 6 13 12 12 11 13 13 12 146 Greg Moore '19
Jessie Stoller '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (27 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 118181818181818181818181818
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 217171717171717171717171717
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 316161616161616161616161616
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 415151515151515151515151515
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 514141414141414141414141414
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 613131313131313131313131313
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 712121212121212121212121212
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 811111111111111111111111111
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 110101010101010101010101010
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 29999999999999
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 38888888888888
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 47777777777777
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 56666666666666

Conditions — 09/22/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1023.7 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.1 kn
avg  ·  max 9.8 kn
Gusts to 25.1 kn
From NNW (340°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine4.2 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1023.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Cornell: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.11 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.21 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →