Stuart Walker Regatta

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 34
2 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 53
3 Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 73
4 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 78
5 Williams College Williams College Ephs 117
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 A 2 1 1 1 1 1 7 Ben Arquit '20
Evelyn Lane '23
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 A 1 3 2 2 2 3 13 Lucie Rochat '22
Patrick Stevenson '23
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths A 3 2 4 3 3 2 17 Adam Gibbs '22 [1-6]
Elizabeth Do '21 [1-2]
Jay Figurelli-Reid '20 [3-6]
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 B 4 5 5 5 4 4 27 Nicholas Leshaw '22
Ding Pang '22
McGill University McGill University Redbirds A 5 4 3 7 5 5 29 Theodore Janson '22
John Wittmann '21
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 B 7 6 6 4 6 DNS 40 Hanna Mass '21
Thea Joseph '22
McGill University McGill University Redbirds B 6 8 7 6 DNF DNS 49 Finn Bascio '23
Ayden Watt '20
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths B 8 10 8 8 DNF DNS 56 Mclean Cozine '20
Grace Mercer '22
Williams College Williams College Ephs B 9 7 9 9 DNS DNS 56 Jamie Vaccaro '21
Patrick Hodgson '22
Williams College Williams College Ephs A 10 9 10 10 DNS DNS 61 Ariane Grossmann '22
Lucia Wiggers '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths112233
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds22111010
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 1334455
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 2443322
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs556677

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths665544
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds778899
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 1887766
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 299101011
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs10109988

Conditions — 09/14/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1020.6 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.2 kn
avg  ·  max 12.9 kn
Gusts to 31.9 kn
From S (184°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine1.0 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1020.6 hPa Rain0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 17 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Middlebury: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.25)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.40
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.36 ± 0.31)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.25 means a rating gap counts about 22% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Middlebury by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Middlebury, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →