Bowdoin Weekday Invite

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3 9 9
2 Bates College Bates College Saltcats 1 10 10
3 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 10 10
4 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 4 14 14
5 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 5 17 17
6 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 25 25
7 Bates College Bates College Saltcats 2 27 27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3 3 3 2 1 9 Benjamin Stevens '25
Nellie Ross '26
Bates College Bates College Saltcats 1 1 5 1 3 10 Ted Lutton '24
Courtney Tally '23
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 2 2 4 2 10 Charlie Apolinsky '26
Caleb Adams-Hull '23
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 4 4 1 5 4 14 Alex Kitay '23
Katharine Kurtz '24
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 5 5 4 3 5 17 Isabelle Tsuchitori '26
Lucy Dutton '25
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 6 7 6 6 25 Kique Ruiz '26
Alex Bloom '26
Bates College Bates College Saltcats 2 7 6 7 7 27 Ethan Baker '24
Claudia Mabley '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (16 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Bates CollegeBates College Saltcats 11111
Bates CollegeBates College Saltcats 22222
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 13333
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 24444
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 35555
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 46666
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 57777
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Bates College Bates College Saltcats 1 Ted Lutton '24 Courtney Tally '23
Bates College Bates College Saltcats 2 Ethan Baker '24 Claudia Mabley '24
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 Kique Ruiz '26 Alex Bloom '26
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 Charlie Apolinsky '26 Caleb Adams-Hull '23
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3 Benjamin Stevens '25 Nellie Ross '26
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 4 Alex Kitay '23 Katharine Kurtz '24
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 5 Isabelle Tsuchitori '26 Lucy Dutton '25

Conditions — 09/30/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1026.7 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.0 kn
avg  ·  max 4.1 kn
Gusts to 12.4 kn
From SW (233°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover88% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1026.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 5 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Bowdoin: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.44 ± 0.38)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bowdoin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Bowdoin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →