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The Dark of Night

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 14 10 24
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 7 18 25
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 9 16 25
4 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 17 9 26
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 11 25 36
6 Mammoths Mammoths Mammoths 24 21 45
7 Buccaneers 1 Buccaneers 1 Buccaneers 1 24 22 46
8 Phoenix Phoenix Phoenix 23 27 50
9 Brown University Brown University Bears 30 21 51
10 Buccaneers 2 Buccaneers 2 Buccaneers 2 23 36 59
11 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 39 23 62
12 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 41 28 69
13 Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals 40 32 72
14 Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 28 45 73
15 Huskies 1 Huskies 1 Huskies 1 36 38 74
16 University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 46 39 85
17 Huskies 2 Huskies 2 Huskies 2 47 49 96
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 2 3 2 7
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 6 2 1 9
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 5 1 5 11
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 1 6 7 14 Adrien Bellanger '25
Nicolas Echarte '25
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 3 4 10 17 Aidan Boni '26
Kyle Fitzgerald '24
Phoenix Phoenix Phoenix 7 7 9 23
Buccaneers 2 Buccaneers 2 Buccaneers 2 12 8 3 23
Buccaneers 1 Buccaneers 1 Buccaneers 1 4 14 6 24
Mammoths Mammoths Mammoths 8 5 11 24
Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 9 15 4 28 Matthew Yoder '23
Dominic Ioime '23
Brown University Brown University Bears 11 11 8 30 Keller Morrison '25 [1-3]
Viktor Bárdi '25 [1-2]
Daniel Van Heeckeren '26 [3]
Huskies 1 Huskies 1 Huskies 1 10 9 17 36
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 14 13 12 39 Marshall Rodes '26 [1-3]
Shannon Fitzgerald '23 [1-2]
Ben Macneil '24 [3]
Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals 13 12 15 40
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 17 10 14 41 Wilfred Hynes '26 [1-3]
Giselle Flores '23 [1-2]
Ryan Divelbiss '26 [3]
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 16 17 13 46 Jack Sullivan '23
Andrew Graham '24
Huskies 2 Huskies 2 Huskies 2 15 16 16 47
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 3 1 5 9 Liam Lawless '25
Mridhula Subramanian '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 5 3 2 10 Adrien Bellanger '25
Nicolas Echarte '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 2 8 6 16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 7 10 1 18
Mammoths Mammoths Mammoths 9 5 7 21
Brown University Brown University Bears 10 2 9 21 Aedan Moran '24
Logan Tullai '25
Buccaneers 1 Buccaneers 1 Buccaneers 1 1 4 17 22
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 12 7 4 23 Kai Latham '24
Cole Perra '26
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 4 6 15 25
Phoenix Phoenix Phoenix 11 13 3 27
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 6 9 13 28 Dane Phippen '23 [1-2]
Brett Tardie '25 [3]
Jordan Morris '23 [1-2]
Rohan Rao '25 [3]
Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals 8 14 10 32
Buccaneers 2 Buccaneers 2 Buccaneers 2 13 15 8 36
Huskies 1 Huskies 1 Huskies 1 15 12 11 38
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 14 11 14 39 Alan Andonian '23
Carissa Keung '23
Wentworth Institute of Technology Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards 16 17 12 45 Matthew Yoder '23
Dominic Ioime '23
Huskies 2 Huskies 2 Huskies 2 17 16 16 49
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
MammothsMammoths Mammoths242424
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons222
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears333
Huskies 1Huskies 1 Huskies 1131313
Huskies 2Huskies 2 Huskies 2151515
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen161616
Buccaneers 1Buccaneers 1 Buccaneers 1444
Buccaneers 2Buccaneers 2 Buccaneers 2555
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies212121
PhoenixPhoenix Phoenix888
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1999
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2101010
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 3111111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 4121212
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs171717
Wentworth Institute of TechnologyWentworth Institute of Technology Leopards191919
CardinalsCardinals Cardinals202020

Division B

Team1B2B3B
MammothsMammoths Mammoths242424
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons222
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears333
Huskies 1Huskies 1 Huskies 1131313
Huskies 2Huskies 2 Huskies 2151515
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen161616
Buccaneers 1Buccaneers 1 Buccaneers 1444
Buccaneers 2Buccaneers 2 Buccaneers 2555
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies212121
PhoenixPhoenix Phoenix888
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1999
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2101010
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 3111111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 4121212
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs171717
Wentworth Institute of TechnologyWentworth Institute of Technology Leopards191919
CardinalsCardinals Cardinals202020

Conditions — 10/27/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1017.3 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.1 kn
avg  ·  max 13.3 kn
Gusts to 25.5 kn
From NW (316°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover2% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1017.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.17 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →