| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Spencer Barnes '24 | 12 |
| 2 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Nicholas Sessions '24 | 16 |
| 3 |  |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | David Pearce '23 | 21 |
| 4 | |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Michael Burns '25 | 31 |
| 5 | |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Lucas Sawin '25 | 34 |
| 6 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26 | 39 |
| 7 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Collin Porter '23 | 51 |
| 8 | |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Lars Osell '24 | 51 |
| 9 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Owen Harrod '26 | 51 |
| 10 | |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Patrick Modin '23 | 55 |
| 11 |  |
Webb Institute | Daniel Escudero '24 | 57 LOP |
| 12 | |
SUNY Maritime College | Ben Hosford '25 | 73 |
| 13 | |
SUNY Maritime College | Brooks Turcotte '26 | 76 |
| 14 | |
SUNY Maritime College | Finn Mahan '26 | 83 |
| School | Sailor | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SUNY Maritime College | Spencer Barnes '24 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Nicholas Sessions '24 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
|
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | David Pearce '23 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 21 |
|
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Michael Burns '25 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 31 |
|
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Lucas Sawin '25 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 34 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 39 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Collin Porter '23 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 51 |
|
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Lars Osell '24 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 51 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Owen Harrod '26 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 51 |
|
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Patrick Modin '23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 55 |
|
Webb Institute | Daniel Escudero '24 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 57 LOP |
|
SUNY Maritime College | Ben Hosford '25 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 73 |
|
SUNY Maritime College | Brooks Turcotte '26 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 76 |
|
SUNY Maritime College | Finn Mahan '26 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 83 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spencer Barnes '24 | SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1 | 6/6 | 2.62 | 5.56 | +2.93 | 69th → 99th | 9.9 | <1% | 2.0 / 6.7 |
| 2 | Nicholas Sessions '24 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 | 6/6 | 3.90 | 4.63 | +0.73 | 94th → 99th | 0.9 | 18% | 2.7 / 4.2 |
| 3 | David Pearce '23 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 | 6/6 | 3.12 | 4.14 | +1.02 | 84th → 97th | 1.8 | 13% | 3.5 / 5.6 |
| 4 | Michael Burns '25 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 | 6/6 | 2.95 | 2.98 | +0.04 | 81st → 81st | 0.0 | 37% | 5.2 / 6.0 |
| 5 | Lucas Sawin '25 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3 | 6/6 | 2.96 | 3.09 | +0.13 | 81st → 83rd | 0.0 | 50% | 5.7 / 5.9 |
| 6 | Daniel Escudero '24 | Webb Institute | 6/6 | 2.05u | 3.06 | +1.00 | 53rd → 83rd | 1.9 | 27% | 6.2 / 7.8 |
| 7 | Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 | 6/6 | 2.20 | 2.28 | +0.08 | 58th → 59th | 0.0 | 30% | 6.5 / 7.6 |
| 8 | Collin Porter '23 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 | 6/6 | 2.38 | 2.08 | −0.29 | 61st → 54th | 0.2 | 76% | 8.5 / 7.2 |
| 8 | Lars Osell '24 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4 | 6/6 | 1.93 | 2.05 | +0.12 | 49th → 53rd | 0.0 | 57% | 8.5 / 8.1 |
| 8 | Owen Harrod '26 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4 | 6/6 | 2.06 | 2.04 | −0.02 | 53rd → 53rd | 0.0 | 63% | 8.5 / 7.9 |
| 11 | Patrick Modin '23 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 5 | 6/6 | 1.60 | 1.79 | +0.18 | 40th → 44th | 0.1 | 58% | 9.2 / 8.7 |
| 12 | Ben Hosford '25 | SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2 | 6/6 | 1.05 | 0.68 | −0.37 | 24th → 17th | 0.3 | 86% | 12.2 / 9.8 |
| 13 | Brooks Turcotte '26 | SUNY Maritime College Privateers 4 | 6/6 | 1.35 | 0.24 | −1.11 | 32nd → 10th | 2.9 | 96% | 12.7 / 9.2 |
| 14 | Finn Mahan '26 | SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3 | 6/6 | 0.82 | -2.09 | −2.92 | 18th → 1st | 8.3 | >99% | 13.8 / 10.2 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
