New England Fall Dinghy Tournament

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 8 5 13
2 Bates College Bates College Saltcats 4 9 13
3 Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 10 4 14
4 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 12 12 24
5 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 14 20 34
6 Huskies Huskies Huskies 19 16 35
7 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 17 18 35
8 Phoenix Phoenix Phoenix 27 27 54
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Bates College Bates College Saltcats 2 1 1 4 Ted Lutton '24
Courtney Tally '23
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 1 5 2 8 Grace Cannon '23
Martin Keene '23
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 3 2 5 10 Wilson Kaznoski '24
Anastasia Mastrocola '23
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 5 4 3 12 Kate Myler '23
Marshall Rodes '26
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 4 3 7 14 Hal Clews '23
Sam Lowery '23
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 7 6 4 17 Dane Phippen '23
Jordan Morris '23
Huskies Huskies Huskies 6 7 6 19
Phoenix Phoenix Phoenix DNS DNS DNS 27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 1 2 1 4 Nolan Cooper '25
Grace Gunsalus '24
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 2 1 2 5 Sam Harris '26
Scott Senatore '26
Bates College Bates College Saltcats 3 3 3 9 Harry Stevenson '24
Maggie Forger '25
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen 4 4 4 12 Cole Perra '26
Tiernan O'Kane '26
Huskies Huskies Huskies 6 5 5 16
Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 5 6 7 18 Brett Tardie '25
Rohan Rao '25
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 7 7 6 20 Pierre Offredi '26
Hollister Rhone '24
Phoenix Phoenix Phoenix DNS DNS DNS 27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (40 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Bates CollegeBates College Saltcats111
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons222
HuskiesHuskies Huskies666
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags333
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen777
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds444
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats888
PhoenixPhoenix Phoenix555

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Bates CollegeBates College Saltcats999
Bentley UniversityBentley University Falcons101010
HuskiesHuskies Huskies141414
Fairfield UniversityFairfield University Stags111111
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen151515
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds121212
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats161616
PhoenixPhoenix Phoenix131313

Conditions — 10/29/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1031.5 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 36°F
Feels like 46°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.2 kn
avg  ·  max 4.7 kn
Gusts to 8.7 kn
From SW (217°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1031.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 5 kn · S 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at New Hampshire: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.08 ± 0.35)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at New Hampshire by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (22 labelled days at New Hampshire).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →