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Oyster Bowl Open

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 210
2 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 266
3 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 290
4 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 292
5 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 297
6 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 316
7 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 325
8 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 339
9 George Washington University George Washington University Revolutionaries 574
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 TOT Sailors
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars A 1 10 8 6 8 11 9 14 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 81 Alexander Gonzalez '24
Brylie Schaubach '26
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 A 9 3 3 11 15 7 14 2 6 17 8 4 4 2 4 2 2 113 Jonathan Weed '26
Siena Adduci '27
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas A 6 16 4 9 12 15 7 3 2 2 5 3 6 13 3 16 4 126 Peter Barnard '27 [1-17]
Caro Gaston '25 [1-5, 10-17]
Vaughn Slatoff '26 [6-9]
Fordham University Fordham University Rams A 3 8 9 4 3 2 8 11 8 3 15 14 DNF 4 5 1 11 128 Peter Lobaugh '24
Isabela Hillmann '27
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars B 12 6 12 3 10 3 3 8 4 13 13 11 8 10 2 8 3 129 Harrison Thomson '26
Andrea Melnik '27
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers A 7 4 1 16 7 16 4 1 10 11 10 2 11 7 9 4 12 132 Cole Woodworth '26 [1-17]
Jude Ortega '26 [1-2, 7-8, 10-17]
Caroline Friendly '27 [3-6, 9]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas B 2 2 17 5 5 4 6 4 7 6 14 15 7 12 14 5 15 140 Benjamin Smith '26
Alexis Tamm '26
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs B 15 9 13 2 13 13 13 9 3 1 6 7 3 9 8 12 5 141 Blake Goodwin '27
Lindsey Kaufmann '26
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen A 16 12 2 12 11 12 1 5 5 10 4 12 14 5 7 7 13 148 Tanner Kelly '25
Darby Graham '26
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen B 10 1 16 8 14 8 2 6 9 14 2 10 2 14 13 6 14 149 Ava Farley '26 [1-10]
Hugh Carty '27 [11-17]
Hunter Anderson '24 [1-10]
Ava Farley '26 [11-17]
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs A 5 7 6 7 1 10 10 15 15 15 7 5 5 3 16 14 10 151 Tyler Brown '26
Isabelle Kanach '25
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 A 8 5 7 14 2 1 12 7 13 12 11 6 10 8 10 15 16 157 Landon Cormie '27
Grace Phillips '27
Fordham University Fordham University Rams B 4 11 5 15 6 9 5 16 12 9 9 8 13 11 11 11 7 162 Connor Bennett '26
Ava Brimicombe '25
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 B 11 13 11 13 4 5 11 12 16 5 3 9 15 6 15 10 9 168 Nathan Jensen '27 [1-17]
Elizabeth Crane '26 [1-10]
Felix Cutler '26 [11-17]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 B 17 14 18 1 9 17 16 10 11 7 12 17 12 15 12 9 6 203 Henry Haddon '25
Indiana Theurer '25
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers B 14 15 10 10 17 6 15 13 17 8 17 13 9 16 6 13 8 207 John Majernik '25
Cat Grogan '25
George Washington University George Washington University Revolutionaries A 18 17 15 18 16 18 17 17 14 16 16 16 16 18 DNF 17 18 286 Eva Wieting '26 [1-17]
Elizabeth Ellis '24 [1-4]
Ian Milko '26 [5-17]
George Washington University George Washington University Revolutionaries B 13 18 14 17 18 14 18 18 18 18 18 18 17 17 17 18 17 288 Thomas Belcastro '26 [1-17]
Avery Slayton '27 [1-4]
Andre Bochat '27 [5-10]
Alexander Huth '27 [11-17]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (41 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A17A
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars11111111111111111
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams22222222222222222
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Revolutionaries33333333333333333
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas44444444444444444
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen88888888888888888
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs55555555555555555
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers99999999999999999
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 166666666666666666
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 277777777777777777

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B16B17B
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars1010101010101010101010101010101010
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams1111111111111111111111111111111111
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Revolutionaries1212121212121212121212121212121212
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas1313131313131313131313131313131313
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen1717171717171717171717171717171717
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs1414141414141414141414141414141414
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers1818181818181818181818181818181818
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 11515151515151515151515151515151515
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 21616161616161616161616161616161616

Conditions — 10/07/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1008.5 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.6 kn
avg  ·  max 15.6 kn
Gusts to 32.3 kn
From NW (317°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover49% Sunshine7.8 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1008.5 hPa Rain0.10 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 10 kn · W 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Mary's: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.12 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.10 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →