Stoney Burke JV

HostBerkeley
Date10/07/2023
TypeFundamental
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	California Poly Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 1	41	21	62
2	California Poly Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 2	35	35	70
3	Banana Slugs	Banana Slugs	47 MRP	56 MRP	103 MRP
4	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs 1	59	49	108
5	Arizona State University	Sun Devils	61	54	115
6	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs 3	61	104	165
7	California Poly Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 3	80	87	167
8	University of California at Berkeley	Bears	88	89	177
9	University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	109	91	200
10	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs 2	112	102	214
11	California State University Channel Islands	Dolphins	121	129	250

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
California Poly Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 2	3	3	2	6	6	1	3	3	4	1	1	2	35	Ben Louttit '26 Jaden Lobbia '27
California Poly Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 1	2	2	5	3	5	3	1	2	1	3	8	6	41	Cyrus Khaleeli '24 [1-7] Ryan Downey '25 [8-12] Riley Deal '26 [1-7]
Banana Slugs	Banana Slugs	1	5	6	1	1	2	2	1	2	2	3	1	47 MRP
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs 1	8	4	1	4	2	OCS	4	4	5	4	7	4	59	Jack Kisling '25 Sarah Kate Mcelroy '24
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs 3	5	1	4	8	4	6	6	9	3	5	5	5	61	Lucas Kasper '27 [1-12] Dylan Tran '24 [1-2, 5-7, 11-12] Leah Oleksik '26 [3-4, 8-10]
Arizona State University	Sun Devils	6	9	3	2	8	4	5	5	8	6	2	3	61	Andrew Down '27 Samantha George '27
California Poly Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 3	4	7	7	5	7	10	7	6	6	9	4	8	80	Kole Kammerer '26 Carson Cowan '26
University of California at Berkeley	Bears	7	6	11	7	3	5	8	11	7	8	6	9	88	Aidan Ramblas '24 [1-12] Madalyn Gordon '25 [1-4] Ines Huret '24 [5-7] Dante Drolet '26 [8-12]
University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	10	10	9	10	9	9	9	8	9	7	9	10	109	Brayden Money '26 Julia Black '26
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs 2	9	8	8	9	10	8	10	7	11	11	10	11	112	Daniel Gates '26 [1-12] Clare Parnham '27 [1-2, 5-7, 11-12] Andrew Harper '26 [3-4, 8-10]
California State University Channel Islands	Dolphins	11	11	10	11	11	7	11	10	10	10	DNS	7	121	Liam Moran '24 Matthew Moran '24

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
California Poly Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 1	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	1	1	2	3	4	21	Kawika Tumilowicz '25 Mateo Krok '27
California Poly Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 2	2	2	1	2	2	6	3	2	8	RDG	1	3	35	Sam Jennings '27 Logan Chapman '26
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs 1	4	6	6	4	3	5	4	4	3	4	4	2	49	Jack Phibbs '27 Kyle Hirth '25
Arizona State University	Sun Devils	3	3	4	5	5	4	5	3	4	5	7	6	54	Sean Kenealy '25 Emily Broach '25
Banana Slugs	Banana Slugs	5	5	3	6	4	1	1	5	2	1	2	1	56 MRP
California Poly Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers 3	6	9	9	9	7	DNS	6	6	7	6	5	5	87	Blake Doscher '26 Adam Mollica '24
University of California at Berkeley	Bears	7	4	5	3	6	3	11	9	10	9	OCS	10	89	Adrien Stroumza '23 [1-5] Bodhi Silberling '27 [6-12] Gabriel Rousseau '27 [1-5] Madalyn Gordon '25 [6-12]
University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	9	7	7	7	8	7	8	8	5	7	9	9	91	Emma Feasey '25 Valentina Garcia '26
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs 2	10	10	8	10	10	9	7	7	6	DNF	6	7	102	Paige O’Dell '27 [1-12] Andrew Fowler '27 [1-2, 5-6, 11-12] Alyssa Shadduck '23 [3-4, 7-10]
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs 3	8	8	11	8	9	8	9	10	9	8	8	8	104	Nathan Briar '26 [1-12] Tyler Stump '26 [1-2, 5-6] Griffin Vernon '26 [3-4, 7-12]
California State University Channel Islands	Dolphins	11	11	10	11	11	10	10	11	11	10	OCS	11	129	Chase Shockley '27 Brent Lin '24

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.180+0.18

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
Arizona State University Sun Devils	140	140	140	140	140	140	140	140	140	140	140	140
University of California at Berkeley Bears	123	123	123	123	123	123	123	123	123	123	123	123
California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101
California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23
California State University Channel Islands Dolphins	109	109	109	109	109	109	109	109	109	109	109	109
University of California at Irvine Anteaters	250	250	250	250	250	250	250	250	250	250	250	250
Banana Slugs Banana Slugs	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B
Arizona State University Sun Devils	140	140	140	140	140	140	140	140	140	140	140	140
University of California at Berkeley Bears	123	123	123	123	123	123	123	123	123	123	123	123
California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101	101
California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23
California State University Channel Islands Dolphins	109	109	109	109	109	109	109	109	109	109	109	109
University of California at Irvine Anteaters	250	250	250	250	250	250	250	250	250	250	250	250
Banana Slugs Banana Slugs	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34	34

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Arizona State University	Andrew Down '27	Samantha George '27
Sun Devils	Sean Kenealy '25	Emily Broach '25
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Jack Kisling '25	Sarah Kate Mcelroy '24
Mustangs 1	Jack Phibbs '27	Kyle Hirth '25
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Daniel Gates '26 [1-12]	Clare Parnham '27 [1-2, 5-7, 11-12] Andrew Harper '26 [3-4, 8-10]
Mustangs 2	Paige O’Dell '27 [1-12]	Andrew Fowler '27 [1-2, 5-6, 11-12] Alyssa Shadduck '23 [3-4, 7-10]
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Lucas Kasper '27 [1-12]	Dylan Tran '24 [1-2, 5-7, 11-12] Leah Oleksik '26 [3-4, 8-10]
Mustangs 3	Nathan Briar '26 [1-12]	Tyler Stump '26 [1-2, 5-6] Griffin Vernon '26 [3-4, 7-12]
California Poly Maritime Academy	Cyrus Khaleeli '24 [1-7] Ryan Downey '25 [8-12]	Riley Deal '26 [1-7]
Keelhaulers 1	Kawika Tumilowicz '25	Mateo Krok '27
California Poly Maritime Academy	Ben Louttit '26	Jaden Lobbia '27
Keelhaulers 2	Sam Jennings '27	Logan Chapman '26
California Poly Maritime Academy	Kole Kammerer '26	Carson Cowan '26
Keelhaulers 3	Blake Doscher '26	Adam Mollica '24
California State University Channel Islands	Liam Moran '24	Matthew Moran '24
Dolphins	Chase Shockley '27	Brent Lin '24
University of California at Berkeley	Aidan Ramblas '24 [1-12]	Madalyn Gordon '25 [1-4] Ines Huret '24 [5-7] Dante Drolet '26 [8-12]
Bears	Adrien Stroumza '23 [1-5] Bodhi Silberling '27 [6-12]	Gabriel Rousseau '27 [1-5] Madalyn Gordon '25 [6-12]
University of California at Irvine	Brayden Money '26	Julia Black '26
Anteaters	Emma Feasey '25	Valentina Garcia '26

Conditions — 10/07/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 28% · Pressure 1011.6 hPa

Temperature

86°F

↑ 94°F ↓ 67°F

Feels like 84°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.5 kn

avg · max 6.2 kn

Gusts to 15.2 kn

From NW (316°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity28% Pressure1011.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 7 kn* · W 12 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Berkeley: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.04 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Berkeley by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (24 labelled days at Berkeley).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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