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Carl Van Duyne MAISA Open Singles

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
Georgetown University Georgetown University Peter Barnard '27 4 14 1 1 1 6 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 5 44
Webb Institute Webb Institute Daniel Escudero '25 1 4 7 3 11 7 1 1 1 1 9 3 3 2 54
Georgetown University Georgetown University Benjamin Smith '26 2 6 9 11 BKD 8 5 3 6 10 2 2 9 7 86
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Charlie Anderson '25 7 1 3 7 3 5 2 17 5 5 10 9 8 9 91
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Spencer Dominguez '27 6 8 4 2 7 1 13 12 10 12 12 5 2 8 102
Queen's University Queen's University Julian Van Den Driessche '25 10 5 5 9 5 3 4 11 4 13 5 10 5 14 103
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Mats Braaten '27 13 2 2 10 4 16 14 4 7 7 4 13 4 10 110
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Teddy Martin '27 3 3 6 14 13 2 6 13 11 11 6 4 10 16 118
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Sean Trudell '28 12 12 10 4 14 4 7 5 9 8 3 8 6 17 119
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Pierce Brindley '28 15 15 13 5 8 11 10 8 3 3 8 11 7 12 129
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26 8 10 15 8 2 10 9 16 12 9 17 6 13 3 138
Princeton University Princeton University Ossian Kamal '26 11 9 14 13 10 14 11 18 15 6 7 12 11 6 157
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Reed Mcallister '27 5 7 8 17 16 12 16 9 8 15 14 14 18 1 160
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Calvin Marsh '28 9 11 12 6 6 17 12 10 14 18 15 7 16 15 168
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Sam Riley '27 18 16 11 18 9 9 15 7 13 14 16 18 14 4 182
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Owen Harrod '26 17 13 16 15 18 13 18 6 BKD 4 13 16 17 11 191
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Dante Garcia '28 14 18 17 12 12 18 8 15 17 17 DNS 17 15 13 212
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Jack Carter '27 16 17 18 16 17 15 17 14 16 16 11 15 12 18 218

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  18 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Peter Barnard '27Georgetown University Hoyas 114/144.034.73+0.7095th → 99th1.94%3.1 / 5.7
2Daniel Escudero '25Webb Institute14/143.424.45+1.0489th → 99th4.43%3.9 / 7.1
3Charlie Anderson '25St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 114/143.223.36+0.1485th → 89th0.129%6.5 / 7.7
4Benjamin Smith '26Georgetown University Hoyas 214/143.453.65+0.2089th → 93rd0.253%7.1 / 7.1
5Spencer Dominguez '27U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 314/142.913.23+0.3279th → 85th0.529%7.3 / 8.5
6Julian Van Den Driessche '25Queen's University14/142.513.28+0.7764th → 86th2.814%7.4 / 9.6
7Mats Braaten '27St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 214/142.822.90+0.0777th → 78th0.034%7.9 / 8.8
8Teddy Martin '27U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 214/142.842.82−0.0278th → 77th0.047%8.4 / 8.7
9Sean Trudell '28U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 114/142.542.84+0.3166th → 78th0.532%8.5 / 9.5
10Pierce Brindley '28Old Dominion University Monarchs 114/142.662.74+0.0870th → 73rd0.051%9.2 / 9.2
11Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 114/142.362.38+0.0161st → 61st0.045%9.9 / 10.1
12Ossian Kamal '26Princeton University14/142.432.18−0.2562nd → 57th0.475%11.2 / 9.8
13Reed Mcallister '27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 114/142.701.81−0.8972nd → 44th4.787%11.4 / 9.1
14Calvin Marsh '28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 214/141.371.88+0.5133rd → 47th1.238%12.0 / 12.6
15Sam Riley '27Old Dominion University Monarchs 214/141.991.37−0.6251st → 33rd1.982%13.0 / 11.1
16Owen Harrod '26Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 214/141.951.35−0.6050th → 31st1.893%14.0 / 11.1
17Dante Garcia '28Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 414/141.260.97−0.2930th → 22nd0.489%15.1 / 12.9
18Jack Carter '27Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 314/141.541.04−0.4938th → 24th1.397%15.6 / 12.2

Conditions — 09/28/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 86%  ·  Pressure 1010.1 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 81°F   ↓ 72°F
Feels like 84°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.1 kn
avg  ·  max 5.2 kn
Gusts to 11.3 kn
From ESE (114°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover54% Sunshine6.2 hrs Humidity86% Pressure1010.1 hPa Rain0.07 in

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →