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PCCSC South 5 & Designate @ UCSB — Analysis

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* This regatta is not official yet. Ratings marked * are from the last weekly update and have not absorbed this event; the performance columns use the results posted so far, and everything refreshes as scoring is finalised.

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2011-W12). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 1,478 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

  • n no rating before this event — the model's estimate from this week is used as the baseline.

Division A  29 boats · 8 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Eliza Richartz '13 Stanford University Cardinal 1 8/8 253* 395 +141 84th → 99th 6.4 2% 3.4 / 9.6 255*
3 Kelsey Rupp '12 University of Southern California Trojans 2 8/8 222* 311 +89 79th → 95th 3.1 10% 6.0 / 11.2 228*
4 Stephen Lue '12 University of Southern California Trojans 1 8/8 246* 275 +30 83rd → 89th 0.4 22% 6.6 / 9.9 258*
5 Sarah Mace '14 Stanford University Cardinal 2 8/8 275* 286 +11 89th → 90th 0.1 35% 6.9 / 8.8 277*
6 Judge Ryan '14 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 8/8 321* 265 -56 95th → 87th 1.5 79% 9.8 / 7.0 322*
7 Patrick Taylor '12 Western Washington University Vikings 2 8/8 194* 213 +18 73rd → 77th 0.2 38% 10.8 / 12.6 199*
8 Matt Foster '11 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 8/8 227* 203 -25 80th → 75th 0.3 54% 10.9 / 10.9 223*
9 Brandon Wood '14 Santa Clara University 8/8 177* 211 +33 69th → 77th 0.5 39% 11.4 / 13.2 182*
10 Andrew Morton '11 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 8/8 145* 192 +47 63rd → 73rd 1.0 38% 13.1 / 14.8 150*
11 Trevor Moseley '13 Chapman University Panthers 1 8/8 70* 185 +115 44th → 71st 5.1 15% 13.2 / 18.2 75*
12 Brittany Hirsch '13 University of California at Davis UC Davis 1 8/8 -17* 180 +197 22nd → 69th 12.3 4% 13.6 / 22.0 13*
14 Dustin Durant '12 California State University Long Beach 8/8 209n* 161 -48 76th → 65th 1.4 66% 14.2 / 12.1 209*
14 Matthew Van Rensselaer '13 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1 8/8 212* 169 -43 77th → 67th 1.1 72% 14.2 / 11.6 206*
16 Ian Reeves '12 Western Washington University Vikings 3 8/8 61* 150 +90 42nd → 64th 3.3 17% 14.9 / 18.9 63*
17 Logan Swartz '11 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 8/8 158* 120 -38 65th → 56th 0.8 61% 15.5 / 14.2 157*
18 Cara Kuhlman '11 University of Oregon 8/8 44* 135 +91 38th → 60th 3.3 20% 16.1 / 19.5 53*
19 Bradley Schoch '11 California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1 8/8 140* 134 -6 62nd → 60th 0.0 61% 16.2 / 15.0 139*
20 Andrew Domingos '11 California State University Channel Islands 8/8 37* 106 +69 36th → 53rd 2.0 24% 16.6 / 19.8 43*
20 Bryan Rust '11 Western Washington University Vikings 1 8/8 124* 75 -50 58th → 45th 1.2 59% 16.6 / 15.7 124*
22 Erik Lund '14 Cal Poly University S.L.O. 8/8 108* 94 -14 53rd → 50th 0.1 62% 17.6 / 16.5 103*
23 Michael Lazzaro '12 University of California at Davis UC Davis 2 8/8 136* 65 -71 60th → 43rd 3.1 86% 20.9 / 15.4 127*
24 Nora Brackbill '13 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 8/8 40n* 71 +31 37th → 44th 0.5 56% 21.1 / 19.3 40*
25 Michael Rolfes '12 Chapman University Panthers 2 8/8 14n* 32 +19 30th → 35th 0.2 72% 24.4 / 20.4 14*
26 Joshua Kew '12 University of California at Berkeley 8/8 181n* 258 +77 70th → 86th 0.6 96% 24.8 / 13.2 181*
27 Hanna Miller '15 California State University Monterey Bay Otters 2 8/8 18n* 4 -14 31st → 27th 0.1 80% 25.4 / 20.2 18*
29 Donald Foster '14 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2 8/8 12n* -82 -93 29th → 7th 0.7 >99% 29.1 / 20.3 12*

Division B  29 boats · 8 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Gregory Dair '15 California State University Channel Islands 8/8 267* 324 +57 87th → 96th 1.3 20% 4.5 / 7.9 273*
2 Cameron Hutcheson '14 University of Southern California Trojans 1 8/8 241* 298 +57 82nd → 93rd 1.3 18% 5.0 / 9.0 249*
4 Molly Mckinney '14 Stanford University Cardinal 1 8/8 247* 241 -6 83rd → 82nd 0.0 42% 7.2 / 8.5 248*
5 Shane Young '14 California State University Long Beach 8/8 187n* 235 +48 71st → 81st 1.0 33% 7.9 / 11.4 187*
6 Cameron Walsh '13 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 8/8 238* 229 -8 82nd → 81st 0.0 46% 8.0 / 9.1 238*
6 Mallory Schluter '14 University of Southern California Trojans 2 8/8 208* 212 +5 76th → 77th 0.0 32% 8.0 / 10.4 213*
6 Oscar Jasklowski '11 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 8/8 213* 321 +108 77th → 95th 3.7 35% 8.0 / 10.0 217*
9 Tally Buckstaff '14 Stanford University Cardinal 2 8/8 165* 235 +70 66th → 81st 2.0 21% 8.2 / 12.3 182*
10 Dane Butera '12 Chapman University Panthers 1 8/8 104n* 171 +67 52nd → 68th 1.9 32% 11.6 / 14.9 104*
10 Dillon Lancaster '14 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1 8/8 181n* 154 -27 70th → 64th 0.4 52% 11.6 / 11.9 181*
12 William Edwards '12 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 8/8 110n* 161 +51 54th → 65th 1.2 39% 12.5 / 14.7 110*
13 John Connor Bathen '14 Santa Clara University 8/8 161* 136 -25 65th → 60th 0.3 61% 13.2 / 12.3 161*
14 Elizabeth Thome '11 University of California at Davis UC Davis 1 8/8 3* 153 +150 27th → 64th 6.8 12% 14.0 / 19.6 25*
15 Joshua Goldberg '14 University of California at Berkeley 8/8 102n* 110 +8 52nd → 54th 0.0 47% 14.6 / 15.1 102*
16 Thomas Preston '12 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 8/8 130* 101 -29 59th → 51st 0.5 65% 15.6 / 13.8 114*
17 Alex Waldron '13 Western Washington University Vikings 1 8/8 59* 107 +48 41st → 53rd 1.1 43% 16.4 / 17.1 58*
17 Zachary Haney '11 California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1 8/8 52* 104 +52 39th → 52nd 1.2 41% 16.4 / 17.5 67*
20 Casey Pruitt '13 Western Washington University Vikings 2 8/8 -7* 81 +89 24th → 46th 3.3 32% 18.2 / 20.0 79*
21 Ashley Vincent '12 Western Washington University Vikings 3 8/8 76* 71 -5 45th → 44th 0.0 74% 18.6 / 16.5 78*
23 Marissa Paulling '11 University of Oregon 8/8 -24* 21 +45 20th → 32nd 0.9 50% 20.9 / 20.6 -13*
24 Catherine Bevens '14 Chapman University Panthers 2 8/8 -26* 34 +60 20th → 35th 1.4 67% 23.1 / 20.8 -27*
25 Ryan Lee '12 University of California at Davis UC Davis 2 8/8 39* -38 -77 37th → 17th 3.3 94% 24.2 / 18.1 42*
26 Nevin Garcia '12 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2 8/8 -12* -53 -41 23rd → 13th 0.8 89% 25.4 / 20.4 -22*
28 Ashley Eberhard '11 California State University Monterey Bay Otters 2 8/8 -8* -89 -82 24th → 6th 2.8 91% 25.8 / 20.1 -19*
29 Macy Stout '13 Cal Poly University S.L.O. 8/8 -110n* -178 -68 4th → 1st 1.1 81% 27.2 / 23.2 -110*

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →