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PCCSC South 5 & Designate @ UCSB

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 27 58 85
2 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 53 40 93
3 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 48 64 112
4 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 55 66 121
5 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 78 64 142
6 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 87 64 151
7 Anteaters Anteaters Anteaters 111 57 168
8 California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Channel Islands 133 36 169
9 UC San Diego 1 UC San Diego 1 UC San Diego 1 31 139 170
10 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach CSU Long Beach 114 63 177
11 Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Santa Clara 91 106 197
12 Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 1 106 93 199
13 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 105 100 205
14 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1 114 93 207
15 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis UC Davis 1 109 112 221
16 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 86 146 232
17 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 124 125 249
18 California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1 130 131 261
19 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 133 131 264
20 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 119 149 268
21 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 129 167 296
22 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Berkeley 198 117 315
23 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 169 151 320
24 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 141 218 359
25 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis UC Davis 2 167 194 361
26 Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 2 195 185 380
27 California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 2 203 206 409
28 UC San Diego 2 UC San Diego 2 UC San Diego 2 210 205 415
29 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2 233 203 436
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 2 1 2 4 1 9 5 3 27 Eliza Richartz '13
Mckenzie Wilson '14
UC San Diego 1 UC San Diego 1 UC San Diego 1 5 4 6 2 4 1 1 8 31
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 3 6 1 11 8 3 4 12 48 Kelsey Rupp '12
Erik Samuels '13
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 17 5 12 1 3 5 9 1 53 Stephen Lue '12
Alexander Kraebel '11
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 10 2 4 5 7 6 12 9 55 Sarah Mace '14
Katie Riklin '13
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 1 3 7 12 19 4 OCS 2 78 Judge Ryan '14
Erica Parker '14
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 6 16 11 9 6 17 6 15 86 Patrick Taylor '12
Meghan Mcdonald '12
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 19 7 10 21 13 10 3 4 87 Matt Foster '11
Krystal Treiberg '12
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Santa Clara 13 11 15 3 16 7 16 10 91 Brandon Wood '14
Blake Martini '11
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 14 8 9 20 10 12 15 17 105 Andrew Morton '11
Emelia Pelliccio '13
Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 1 12 13 5 10 15 21 17 13 106 Trevor Moseley '13
Lauren Mcnally '12
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis UC Davis 1 11 19 18 13 17 2 11 18 109 Brittany Hirsch '13
Kay Larsh '12
Anteaters Anteaters Anteaters 9 9 17 22 11 11 13 19 111
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach CSU Long Beach 7 10 8 15 22 13 18 21 114 Dustin Durant '12
Laura Newton '13
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1 8 14 20 17 18 15 8 14 114 Matthew Van Rensselaer '13
Mollie Mcquiston '14
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 4 20 16 18 24 18 14 5 119 Ian Reeves '12
Kate Taylor '14
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 21 18 3 19 21 26 10 6 124 Logan Swartz '11
Jessica Schem '13
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 25 15 13 14 20 14 21 7 129 Cara Kuhlman '11
Katherine Emberley '13
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1 16 17 14 24 5 16 22 16 130 Bradley Schoch '11
Natalie Cardoso '13
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 18 22 23 7 12 20 2 29 133 Bryan Rust '11
Debbi Kenote '13
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Channel Islands 22 21 19 6 9 8 20 28 133 Andrew Domingos '11
Cameron Demaranville '12
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 20 24 21 8 2 19 25 22 141 Erik Lund '14
Christine Gorney '11
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis UC Davis 2 15 12 22 25 25 22 26 20 167 Michael Lazzaro '12
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 23 25 24 16 14 24 19 24 169 Nora Brackbill '13
Amy Stuyvesant '13
Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 2 24 23 25 23 23 23 27 27 195 Michael Rolfes '12
Alexa Pukall '11
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Berkeley DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 7 11 198 Joshua Kew '12
Travis Benton '14
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 2 26 26 27 26 26 25 24 23 203 Hanna Miller '15
Charles Shane '13
UC San Diego 2 UC San Diego 2 UC San Diego 2 27 27 26 27 27 27 23 26 210
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2 DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ DSQ 28 25 233 Donald Foster '14
Jared Jawad '13
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Channel Islands 4 4 3 3 8 9 4 1 36 Gregory Dair '15
Lisa Marchand '12
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 10 12 2 2 5 1 1 7 40 Cameron Hutcheson '14
Maggie Nolting '14
Anteaters Anteaters Anteaters 1 5 1 20 11 11 5 3 57
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 3 10 4 4 9 16 2 10 58 Molly Mckinney '14
Iris Clayter '13
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach CSU Long Beach 2 2 7 7 14 10 13 8 63 Shane Young '14
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 7 3 DSQ 5 4 6 3 6 64 Oscar Jasklowski '11
Louise Lehman '14
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 9 8 9 15 10 2 7 4 64 Cameron Walsh '13
Kimberly Sultz '13
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 2 16 1 12 1 3 4 11 16 64 Mallory Schluter '14
Daniel Kivlovitz '12
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 5 11 8 12 6 13 9 2 66 Tally Buckstaff '14
Cam Hutton '14
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1 6 7 20 9 16 3 17 15 93 Dillon Lancaster '14
Sara Himes '13
Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 1 11 6 5 13 22 14 10 12 93 Dane Butera '12
Taylor Forster '13
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 20 9 15 6 13 8 16 13 100 William Edwards '12
Carly Olenick '13
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Santa Clara 23 14 10 11 7 19 8 14 106 John Connor Bathen '14
Daniel Marks '14
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis UC Davis 1 8 DSQ 6 22 2 21 12 11 112 Elizabeth Thome '11
Jessica Brown '14
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Berkeley 13 19 17 23 12 5 6 22 117 Joshua Goldberg '14
Jacob Freimer '11
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 12 20 13 14 27 15 15 9 125 Thomas Preston '12
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 14 21 14 18 21 7 19 17 131 Alex Waldron '13
Veronica Whitley '12
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 1 15 17 19 17 17 23 18 5 131 Zachary Haney '11
Mark Hurdle '13
UC San Diego 1 UC San Diego 1 UC San Diego 1 18 25 25 24 1 12 14 20 139
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 17 15 22 10 18 20 23 21 146 Casey Pruitt '13
Paul Foley '15
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 19 13 11 25 19 24 20 18 149 Ashley Vincent '12
Sara Welsh '12
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 21 23 16 8 25 17 22 19 151
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 22 16 18 19 15 25 28 24 167 Marissa Paulling '11
Caitlyn Bryson '11
Chapman University Chapman University Panthers 2 26 22 21 16 24 22 24 DNF 185 Catherine Bevens '14
Endsley Eggert '14
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis UC Davis 2 28 18 23 28 23 27 21 26 194 Ryan Lee '12
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2 24 27 26 27 29 18 27 25 203 Nevin Garcia '12
Andre Mercader '14
UC San Diego 2 UC San Diego 2 UC San Diego 2 27 26 24 26 28 26 25 23 205
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 2 25 24 28 21 26 29 26 27 206 Ashley Eberhard '11
Chelsey Hale '13
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 29 28 27 29 20 28 29 28 218 Macy Stout '13 [1-8]
Margaret Kaiserman '14 [1-2, 5-8]
Lauren Wheeler '12 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.190+0.19
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (20 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Berkeley2323232323232323
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 111111111
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 222222222
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Channel Islands99999999
Chapman UniversityChapman University Panthers 14141414141414141
Chapman UniversityChapman University Panthers 24242424242424242
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach CSU Long Beach411411411411411411411411
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters 11212121212121212
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters 2121121121121121121121121
Santa Clara UniversitySanta Clara University Santa Clara1919191919191919
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 13737373737373737
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 23838383838383838
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 12222222222222222
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 22121212121212121
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis UC Davis 14747474747474747
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis UC Davis 2471471471471471471471471
AnteatersAnteaters Anteaters2525252525252525
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 12727272727272727
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 22828282828282828
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3271271271271271271271271
UC San Diego 1UC San Diego 1 UC San Diego 12929292929292929
UC San Diego 2UC San Diego 2 UC San Diego 23030303030303030
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1130130130130130130130130
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2131131131131131131131131
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 18888888888888888
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 28787878787878787

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Berkeley2323232323232323
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 111111111
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 222222222
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Channel Islands99999999
Chapman UniversityChapman University Panthers 14141414141414141
Chapman UniversityChapman University Panthers 24242424242424242
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach CSU Long Beach411411411411411411411411
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters 11212121212121212
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters 2121121121121121121121121
Santa Clara UniversitySanta Clara University Santa Clara1919191919191919
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 13737373737373737
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans 23838383838383838
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 12222222222222222
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 22121212121212121
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis UC Davis 14747474747474747
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis UC Davis 2471471471471471471471471
AnteatersAnteaters Anteaters2525252525252525
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 12727272727272727
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 22828282828282828
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3271271271271271271271271
UC San Diego 1UC San Diego 1 UC San Diego 12929292929292929
UC San Diego 2UC San Diego 2 UC San Diego 23030303030303030
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1130130130130130130130130
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2131131131131131131131131
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 18888888888888888
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 28787878787878787
School / Team SkipperCrew
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Erik Lund '14 Christine Gorney '11
Mustang Macy Stout '13 [1-8] Margaret Kaiserman '14 [1-2, 5-8]
Lauren Wheeler '12 [3-4]
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Matthew Van Rensselaer '13 Mollie Mcquiston '14
Keelhaulers 1 Dillon Lancaster '14 Sara Himes '13
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Donald Foster '14 Jared Jawad '13
Keelhaulers 2 Nevin Garcia '12 Andre Mercader '14
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Andrew Domingos '11 Cameron Demaranville '12
Channel Islands Gregory Dair '15 Lisa Marchand '12
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach Dustin Durant '12 Laura Newton '13
CSU Long Beach Shane Young '14
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Bradley Schoch '11 Natalie Cardoso '13
Otters 1 Zachary Haney '11 Mark Hurdle '13
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Hanna Miller '15 Charles Shane '13
Otters 2 Ashley Eberhard '11 Chelsey Hale '13
Chapman University Chapman University Trevor Moseley '13 Lauren Mcnally '12
Panthers 1 Dane Butera '12 Taylor Forster '13
Chapman University Chapman University Michael Rolfes '12 Alexa Pukall '11
Panthers 2 Catherine Bevens '14 Endsley Eggert '14
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Brandon Wood '14 Blake Martini '11
Santa Clara John Connor Bathen '14 Daniel Marks '14
Stanford University Stanford University Eliza Richartz '13 Mckenzie Wilson '14
Cardinal 1 Molly Mckinney '14 Iris Clayter '13
Stanford University Stanford University Sarah Mace '14 Katie Riklin '13
Cardinal 2 Tally Buckstaff '14 Cam Hutton '14
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Joshua Kew '12 Travis Benton '14
Berkeley Joshua Goldberg '14 Jacob Freimer '11
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Brittany Hirsch '13 Kay Larsh '12
UC Davis 1 Elizabeth Thome '11 Jessica Brown '14
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Michael Lazzaro '12
UC Davis 2 Ryan Lee '12
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Judge Ryan '14 Erica Parker '14
Bruins 1 Oscar Jasklowski '11 Louise Lehman '14
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Andrew Morton '11 Emelia Pelliccio '13
Bruins 2 William Edwards '12 Carly Olenick '13
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Nora Brackbill '13 Amy Stuyvesant '13
Bruins 3
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Matt Foster '11 Krystal Treiberg '12
Gauchos 1 Cameron Walsh '13 Kimberly Sultz '13
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Logan Swartz '11 Jessica Schem '13
Gauchos 2 Thomas Preston '12
University of Oregon University of Oregon Cara Kuhlman '11 Katherine Emberley '13
Ducks Marissa Paulling '11 Caitlyn Bryson '11
University of Southern California University of Southern California Stephen Lue '12 Alexander Kraebel '11
Trojans 1 Cameron Hutcheson '14 Maggie Nolting '14
University of Southern California University of Southern California Kelsey Rupp '12 Erik Samuels '13
Trojans 2 Mallory Schluter '14 Daniel Kivlovitz '12
Western Washington University Western Washington University Bryan Rust '11 Debbi Kenote '13
Vikings 1 Alex Waldron '13 Veronica Whitley '12
Western Washington University Western Washington University Patrick Taylor '12 Meghan Mcdonald '12
Vikings 2 Casey Pruitt '13 Paul Foley '15
Western Washington University Western Washington University Ian Reeves '12 Kate Taylor '14
Vikings 3 Ashley Vincent '12 Sara Welsh '12

Conditions — 03/26/2011 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 75%  ·  Pressure 1016.5 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.2 kn
avg  ·  max 5.4 kn
Gusts to 15.2 kn
From SW (220°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover94% Sunshine8.5 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1016.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn · W 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UC Santa Barbara: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.12 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Santa Barbara by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled days at UC Santa Barbara).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →