SAISA North Points #5

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 9 5 14
2 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 15 13 28
3 University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 1 18 14 32
4 University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 19 14 33
5 University of Georgia University of Georgia Bulldogs 14 23 37
6 University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 2 16 27 43
7 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror 29 29 58
8 North Carolina North Carolina North Carolina 50 MRP 40 MRP 90 MRP
9 Auburn University Auburn University Tigers 50 MRP 55 MRP 105 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 1 1 1 6 9 James Whitmore '20
Peter Barron '21
University of Georgia University of Georgia Bulldogs 2 6 5 1 14 Allison Chenard '19 [1-4]
Hailey Bennett '21 [1-2]
Ross Oliver '19 [3-4]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 7 2 4 2 15 Travis Tucker '20
Elizabeth Blenk '19
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 2 3 3 3 7 16 Robert Williams '21
Harley Lowery '19
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 1 4 5 6 3 18 Alex Jones '19
James Ahern '19
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 8 4 2 5 19 Christopher Chaplin '20
Mackey Leventis '19
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror 9 9 7 4 29 James Robertson '18
Mack Brooks '21
North Carolina North Carolina North Carolina 5 8 9 8 50 MRP
Auburn University Auburn University Tigers 6 7 8 9 50 MRP Carter Cooper '20
Weisa Wang '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 1 1 1 2 5 Nicole Simon '20
Katherine Matheson '18
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 5 4 3 1 13 Hogan O'Donnell '21
Katherine Richardson '19
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 1 3 2 4 5 14 Graham Shivers '19
Ashley Rambo '21
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 4 5 2 3 14 Keara Paquette '21
Ashley Thess '19
University of Georgia University of Georgia Bulldogs 6 6 5 6 23 Jennifer Cahalan '19
Kate Maner '20
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 2 2 9 8 8 27 Taylor Wood '18 [1-2]
Maria Teresa Felix '19 [3-4]
Elizabeth Howard '20 [1-2]
Katrina Bauermeister '19 [3-4]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Red Terror 8 7 7 7 29 Adam Augustine '19
Anneliese Carlson '21
North Carolina North Carolina North Carolina 7 3 6 4 40 MRP
Auburn University Auburn University Tigers 9 8 9 9 55 MRP Emalyn Blackwell '21
Weisa Wang '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (23 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Auburn UniversityAuburn University Tigers1133
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars2244
University of GeorgiaUniversity of Georgia Bulldogs5577
North CarolinaNorth Carolina North Carolina6688
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Red Terror4466
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack3355
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Gamecocks101022
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 1771010
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 28811

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Auburn UniversityAuburn University Tigers2244
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars3355
University of GeorgiaUniversity of Georgia Bulldogs6688
North CarolinaNorth Carolina North Carolina771010
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Red Terror5577
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack4466
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Gamecocks1133
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 18811
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 2101022

Conditions — 03/24/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 52%  ·  Pressure 1022.8 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.0 kn
avg  ·  max 5.8 kn
Gusts to 13.0 kn
From E (92°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine5.2 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1022.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at UNC Wilmington: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.05 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UNC Wilmington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled days at UNC Wilmington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →