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SAISA North Points #5

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 11 7 18
2 North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 16 35 51
3 University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 31 31 62
4 Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 27 43 70
5 University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 39 33 72
6 Tar Heels Tar Heels Tar Heels 47 30 77
7 University of Georgia University of Georgia Bulldogs 56 41 97
8 Demon Deacons Demon Deacons Demon Deacons 45 60 105
9 Duke University Duke University Blue Devils 65 42 107
10 University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington The Dub 48 63 111
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 1 1 1 2 1 1 4 11 Malcolm Benn Smith '21
Laura Masterson '20
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 2 2 2 3 4 2 1 16 Scott Harris '22
Anneliese Carlson '21
Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 7 3 3 1 8 3 2 27 Robert Gruskos '20
Emilia Giovine '22
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 3 5 4 4 3 7 5 31 Alex Jones '19
James Ahern '19
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 5 4 8 8 2 4 8 39 Sarah Deloach '21
Grace O'Hare '22
Demon Deacons Demon Deacons Demon Deacons 8 6 5 5 9 6 6 45
Tar Heels Tar Heels Tar Heels 9 8 9 7 6 5 3 47
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington The Dub 6 9 6 6 5 9 7 48 Robert Williams '21
David Robertson '21
University of Georgia University of Georgia Bulldogs 4 7 7 9 10 10 9 56 Alexander Weisel '19
Mary James '20
Duke University Duke University Blue Devils 10 10 10 10 7 8 10 65 Avery Fulford '21
Victoria Bevard '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 Ryan Ratliffe '21
Adrianna Lee '22
Tar Heels Tar Heels Tar Heels 5 3 2 3 8 7 2 30
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks 8 2 4 2 2 9 4 31 Graham Shivers '19 [1-7]
Drew Davey '22 [1-2]
Elizabeth Howard '20 [3-7]
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 6 4 5 4 5 6 3 33 Keara Paquette '21 [1-7]
Matt Alburn '22 [1-2]
Caroline Keinath '21 [3-7]
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Wolfpack 3 6 7 5 3 2 9 35 Hogan O'Donnell '21
Olivia Gregg '22
University of Georgia University of Georgia Bulldogs 2 7 3 10 4 5 10 41 Amanda Heckler '21
Tristan Britt '20
Duke University Duke University Blue Devils 7 8 6 6 6 4 5 42 Carolina Cassedy '22
Christine Catherman '22
Clemson University Clemson University Tigers 4 5 9 8 7 3 7 43 Samuel Cabiness '20
Karl Martin '20
Demon Deacons Demon Deacons Demon Deacons 10 10 10 7 9 8 6 60
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington The Dub 9 9 8 9 10 10 8 63 Harley Lowery '19
Anika Pruim '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (23 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars2244668
Clemson UniversityClemson University Tigers1133557
Duke UniversityDuke University Blue Devils3355779
University of GeorgiaUniversity of Georgia Bulldogs5577991
Tar HeelsTar Heels Tar Heels668810102
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack44668810
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Gamecocks9911335
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks7799113
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington The Dub881010224
Demon DeaconsDemon Deacons Demon Deacons101022446

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
College of CharlestonCollege of Charleston Cougars3355779
Clemson UniversityClemson University Tigers2244668
Duke UniversityDuke University Blue Devils44668810
University of GeorgiaUniversity of Georgia Bulldogs668810102
Tar HeelsTar Heels Tar Heels7799113
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University Wolfpack5577991
University of South CarolinaUniversity of South Carolina Gamecocks101022446
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks881010224
University of North Carolina at WilmingtonUniversity of North Carolina at Wilmington The Dub9911335
Demon DeaconsDemon Deacons Demon Deacons1133557

Conditions — 03/23/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 40%  ·  Pressure 1023.2 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 43°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.8 kn
avg  ·  max 10.0 kn
Gusts to 19.8 kn
From NW (320°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity40% Pressure1023.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at UNC Wilmington: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.14)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.07 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UNC Wilmington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled days at UNC Wilmington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →