College of Charleston '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.60 (fleet 3.60) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–7 (53%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 8–7 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 8–7 against 8.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-02-23 | Frank I Mendelblatt | skipper | 2.69 | 2.65 | 8–7 | 8.1 | −0.05 | 0.0 | 64% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA North Points #4 | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.3 | 3.27 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA North Points #5 | Skipper | B | 7 | 1.0 | — |
| Frank I Mendelblatt | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 11.4 | 3.40 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA North Points #3 | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.0 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl Regatta 2018 | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.1 | 3.00 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Ryan Ratliffe |  Cathedral Catholic High School |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
