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Garner Tullis Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 19–1
2 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave Women 16–4
3 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 12–8
4 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 8–12
5 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 3–17
6 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 2–18

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 17,727 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 55 of 60 matches (92%) with a log-loss of 0.280 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.45 ± 0.23: an orderly event, more orderly than 89% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Tulane University
Green Wave		19.77
home +0.33		Thad Lettsome / Ellie Spearman 2.96
Cameron Giblin / Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez 3.50
Asher Zittrer / Grace Siwicki 2.97		89%19–1 (95%)+1.1
2Tulane University
Green Wave Women		28.89
home +0.33		Ciara Rodriguez-Horan / Lucy Spearman 3.25
Caroline Benson / Lydia Brown 2.94 12–4
Mia Hanes / Gillian Perrell 2.43 12–4
Caroline Benson / Abigail Borggaard 2.71 4–0
Mia Hanes / Essie Clifton 2.43 4–0		76%16–4 (80%)+0.8
3Jacksonville University
Fins		37.53Gordon Gurnell / Elisabeth Bowman 2.71 12–4
Matthew King / Rori Bywater 2.76 12–4
Brent Penwarden / Mia Porter 2.02 12–4
Gordon Gurnell / Rori Bywater 2.74 0–4
Matthew King / Mia Porter 2.71 0–4
Brent Penwarden / Mary Mann 1.99 0–4		49%12–8 (60%)+2.2
4Old Dominion University
Monarchs		47.44
school +0.31		Andrew Ciszewski / Ethan Tutt
Parker Purrington / Allison Volk 2.25
Noyl Odom / Joseph Paccione 2.40		47%8–12 (40%)−1.5
5University of Miami
Hurricanes		56.04
school +0.25		Richard Mccann / Chloe Beach
Aidan Dennis / Dominic Canonico 2.52
Zachary Ward / Lucas Vianna 1.62		20%3–17 (15%)−1.0
6University of South Florida
Bulls		65.96Zachariah Schemel / Saleta Powell 2.23
Humberto Porrata / Brilan Christopher 2.03
Chloe Sweeting / Emmy Digiacomo 1.52		18%2–18 (10%)−1.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Tulane University Green Wave9.7710.6619–117.9+0.890.734%
3Jacksonville University Fins7.538.2412–89.8+0.711.117%
2Tulane University Green Wave Women8.899.2216–415.2+0.320.245%
5University of Miami Hurricanes6.045.633–174.0−0.410.382%
4Old Dominion University Monarchs7.446.978–129.5−0.470.587%
6University of South Florida Bulls5.965.152–183.6−0.800.992%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Asher ZittrerTulane University2.973.8719–117.9+0.890.734%
Mia HanesTulane University2.432.7516–415.2+0.320.245%
Ciara Rodriguez-HoranTulane University3.253.5816–415.2+0.320.245%
Richard MccannUniversity of Miami1.380.963–174.0−0.410.382%
Aidan DennisUniversity of Miami2.522.113–174.0−0.410.382%
Zachary WardUniversity of Miami1.621.213–174.0−0.410.382%
Andrew CiszewskiOld Dominion University2.211.758–129.5−0.470.587%
Parker PurringtonOld Dominion University2.251.798–129.5−0.470.587%
Noyl OdomOld Dominion University2.401.938–129.5−0.470.587%
Zachariah SchemelUniversity of South Florida2.231.432–183.6−0.800.992%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of South Florida BullsOld Dominion University Monarchs20%upset
12Tulane University Green WaveJacksonville University Fins91%
13Tulane University Green Wave WomenUniversity of Miami Hurricanes95%
14Jacksonville University FinsUniversity of South Florida Bulls84%
15Old Dominion University MonarchsUniversity of Miami Hurricanes80%
16Tulane University Green WaveTulane University Green Wave Women70%
17University of Miami HurricanesUniversity of South Florida Bulls51%
18Tulane University Green Wave WomenJacksonville University Fins80%
19Tulane University Green WaveOld Dominion University Monarchs92%
110Jacksonville University FinsUniversity of Miami Hurricanes83%
111Tulane University Green Wave WomenOld Dominion University Monarchs83%
112Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of South Florida Bulls98%
113Jacksonville University FinsOld Dominion University Monarchs54%
114Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of Miami Hurricanes98%
115Tulane University Green Wave WomenUniversity of South Florida Bulls95%
216Old Dominion University MonarchsUniversity of South Florida Bulls81%
217Tulane University Green WaveJacksonville University Fins91%
218Tulane University Green Wave WomenUniversity of Miami Hurricanes94%
219Jacksonville University FinsUniversity of South Florida Bulls83%
220Old Dominion University MonarchsUniversity of Miami Hurricanes80%
221Tulane University Green WaveTulane University Green Wave Women70%
222University of Miami HurricanesUniversity of South Florida Bulls52%
223Tulane University Green Wave WomenJacksonville University Fins80%
224Tulane University Green WaveOld Dominion University Monarchs91%
225Jacksonville University FinsUniversity of Miami Hurricanes82%
226Tulane University Green Wave WomenOld Dominion University Monarchs82%
227Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of South Florida Bulls98%
228Jacksonville University FinsOld Dominion University Monarchs52%
229Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of Miami Hurricanes98%
230Tulane University Green Wave WomenUniversity of South Florida Bulls95%
331Old Dominion University MonarchsUniversity of South Florida Bulls82%
332Tulane University Green WaveJacksonville University Fins91%
333Tulane University Green Wave WomenUniversity of Miami Hurricanes93%
334Jacksonville University FinsUniversity of South Florida Bulls83%
335Old Dominion University MonarchsUniversity of Miami Hurricanes80%
336Tulane University Green Wave WomenTulane University Green Wave30%upset
337University of Miami HurricanesUniversity of South Florida Bulls53%
338Tulane University Green Wave WomenJacksonville University Fins80%
339Tulane University Green WaveOld Dominion University Monarchs91%
340Jacksonville University FinsUniversity of Miami Hurricanes81%
341Tulane University Green Wave WomenOld Dominion University Monarchs81%
342Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of South Florida Bulls98%
343Jacksonville University FinsOld Dominion University Monarchs51%
344Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of Miami Hurricanes97%
345Tulane University Green Wave WomenUniversity of South Florida Bulls95%
446Old Dominion University MonarchsUniversity of South Florida Bulls82%
447Tulane University Green WaveJacksonville University Fins91%
448Tulane University Green Wave WomenUniversity of Miami Hurricanes93%
449Jacksonville University FinsUniversity of South Florida Bulls82%
450Old Dominion University MonarchsUniversity of Miami Hurricanes80%
451Tulane University Green WaveTulane University Green Wave Women70%
452University of South Florida BullsUniversity of Miami Hurricanes47%upset
453Tulane University Green Wave WomenJacksonville University Fins80%
454Tulane University Green WaveOld Dominion University Monarchs90%
455Jacksonville University FinsUniversity of Miami Hurricanes80%
456Old Dominion University MonarchsTulane University Green Wave Women20%upset
457Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of South Florida Bulls98%
458Jacksonville University FinsOld Dominion University Monarchs49%upset
459Tulane University Green WaveUniversity of Miami Hurricanes97%
460Tulane University Green Wave WomenUniversity of South Florida Bulls95%

Round 1

TeamRec.WaveWomenFinsMonarchsHurricanesBulls
Tulane University Green Wave9–1✕✕WWWW
Tulane University Green Wave Women9–1✕✕WWWW
Jacksonville University Fins3–2LL✕WWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs1–4LLL✕WL
University of Miami Hurricanes1–4LLLL✕W
University of South Florida Bulls1–4LLLWL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.WaveWomenFinsMonarchsHurricanesBulls
Tulane University Green Wave9–1✕✕WWWW
Tulane University Green Wave Women9–1✕✕WWWW
Jacksonville University Fins3–2LL✕WWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs2–3LLL✕WW
University of Miami Hurricanes1–4LLLL✕W
University of South Florida Bulls0–5LLLLL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.WaveWomenFinsMonarchsHurricanesBulls
Tulane University Green Wave9–1✕✕WWWW
Tulane University Green Wave Women9–1✕✕WWWW
Jacksonville University Fins3–2LL✕WWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs2–3LLL✕WW
University of Miami Hurricanes1–4LLLL✕W
University of South Florida Bulls0–5LLLLL✕

Round 4

TeamRec.WaveWomenFinsMonarchsHurricanesBulls
Tulane University Green Wave8–2✕✕WLWW
Tulane University Green Wave Women8–2✕✕WLWW
Jacksonville University Fins3–2LL✕WWW
Old Dominion University Monarchs3–2WWL✕WW
University of Miami Hurricanes0–5LLLL✕L
University of South Florida Bulls1–4LLLLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of South Florida Bulls 1-3-6 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-4-5
2 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 4-5-6
3 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-2-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-6
4 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-5-6
5 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-6 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-5
6 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-5 def. Tulane University Green Wave Women 3-4-6
7 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 2-5-6
8 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
9 Tulane University Green Wave 1-3-6 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-4-5
10 Jacksonville University Fins 1-3-6 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 2-4-5
11 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-2-3 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 4-5-6
12 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. University of South Florida Bulls 4-5-6
13 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-4-6
14 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 4-5-6
15 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-2-3 def. University of South Florida Bulls 4-5-6
16 Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-5-6
17 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Jacksonville University Fins 4-5-6
18 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-2-3 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 4-5-6
19 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
20 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-3 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 4-5-6
21 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Tulane University Green Wave Women 4-5-6
22 University of Miami Hurricanes 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-5-6
23 Tulane University Green Wave Women 2-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 1-5-6
24 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-4-6
25 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-4 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 1-5-6
26 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-2-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-4-6
27 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
28 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-4-6
29 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 4-5-6
30 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-2-3 def. University of South Florida Bulls 4-5-6
31 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
32 Tulane University Green Wave 1-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-5-6
33 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-2-4 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-5-6
34 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 1-5-6
35 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-6
36 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-2-4 def. Tulane University Green Wave 3-5-6
37 University of Miami Hurricanes 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
38 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-3-4 def. Jacksonville University Fins 2-5-6
39 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 4-5-6
40 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-6 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-5
41 Tulane University Green Wave Women 2-3-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-5-6
42 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-5
43 Jacksonville University Fins 2-3-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-5-6
44 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-6
45 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6
46 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-6 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-5
47 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-6 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-5
48 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-2-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-6
49 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-4-6
50 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-6 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-5
51 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-5 def. Tulane University Green Wave Women 3-4-6
52 University of South Florida Bulls 1-2-6 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-5
53 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-2-5 def. Jacksonville University Fins 3-4-6
54 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-4 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 3-5-6
55 Jacksonville University Fins 1-2-5 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 3-4-6
56 Old Dominion University Monarchs 1-2-6 def. Tulane University Green Wave Women 3-4-5
57 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. University of South Florida Bulls 4-5-6
58 Jacksonville University Fins 1-3-6 def. Old Dominion University Monarchs 2-4-5
59 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. University of Miami Hurricanes 4-5-6
60 Tulane University Green Wave Women 1-2-4 def. University of South Florida Bulls 3-5-6

Conditions — 04/02/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 73%  ·  Pressure 1016.0 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.4 kn
avg  ·  max 7.9 kn
Gusts to 15.6 kn
From ENE (60°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover62% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1016.0 hPa Rain0.42 in

What this breeze does at Tulane — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Tulane in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tulane by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (38 labelled fleet-race days at Tulane).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →