| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 5–3 |
| 3 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 4–4 |
| 4 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 3–5 |
| 5 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 22,017 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 20 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.335 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.51 ± 0.45: an orderly event, more orderly than 93% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 1 | 9.85 school +0.31 | Jack Welburn / Ellie Alex 3.08 Nathan Smith / Darby Graham 3.14 Henry Allgeier / Madeline Smith | 74% | 8–0 (100%) | +2.1 |
| 2 | University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 2 | 9.76 school +0.38 | Cole Woodworth / Anna Hoffman Jackson Mcaliley / Joshua Zeelander Jordan Bruce / Shaanti Choi-Bose 3.61 | 72% | 5–3 (62%) | −0.7 |
| 3 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 4 | 8.79 school +0.10 | Will Murray / Frances Depke 3.03 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones / Rachel Duggan 2.91 Jj Klempen / Anna Mcbride | 48% | 4–4 (50%) | +0.1 |
| 4 | Fordham University Rams | 3 | 8.94 school +0.26 | Peter Lobaugh / Kristen Healy 2.97 Jacob Zils / Bella Rabeni Connor Bennett / Ava Brimicombe | 52% | 3–5 (38%) | −1.2 |
| 5 | SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 5 | 6.18 school −0.24 | Spencer Barnes / Eva Leggett 2.76 Ben Hosford / Nicholas Cunha 1.80 Marcus Adam / Kaitlyn Scarcella 1.69 0–4 Brooks Turcotte / Kaitlyn Scarcella 1.89 0–4 | 4% | 0–8 (0%) | −0.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. S. Naval Academy | 9.85 | 12.85 | 8–0 | 5.9 | ≥+3.00 | 3.6 | 7% |
| 3 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 8.79 | 8.90 | 4–4 | 3.8 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2 | University of Pennsylvania | 9.76 | 9.25 | 5–3 | 5.7 | −0.50 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 4 | Fordham University | 8.94 | 8.05 | 3–5 | 4.2 | −0.89 | 0.7 | 93% |
| 5 | SUNY Maritime College | 6.18 | 3.18 | 0–8 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Hosford | SUNY Maritime College | 1.80 | -1.20 | 0–8 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Midshipmen | Quakers | Statesmen | Rams | Privateers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 2–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 2–2 | L | W | ✕ | L | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 2–2 | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Midshipmen | Quakers | Statesmen | Rams | Privateers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 3–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 2–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Quakers | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Rams | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 2-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Quakers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-3-6 |
| 9 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Privateers | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Quakers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Statesmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Quakers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | Henry Allgeier '27 Jack Welburn '26 Nathan Smith '26 |
Madeline Smith '24 Ellie Alex '26 Darby Graham '26 |
|
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | Cole Woodworth '26 Jackson Mcaliley '27 Jordan Bruce '24 |
Anna Hoffman '26 Joshua Zeelander '24 Shaanti Choi-Bose '24 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | Jj Klempen '27 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones '26 Will Murray '24 |
Anna Mcbride '24 Rachel Duggan '25 Frances Depke '25 |
|
Fordham University | Rams | Connor Bennett '26 Jacob Zils '27 Peter Lobaugh '24 |
Ava Brimicombe '25 Bella Rabeni '24 Kristen Healy '24 |
|
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | Ben Hosford '25 Brooks Turcotte '26 Marcus Adam '23 Spencer Barnes '24 |
Nicholas Cunha '27 Kaitlyn Scarcella '27 Eva Leggett '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
