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Mustang Open (JV)

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 45 16 61
2 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 56 34 90
3 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2 50 46 96
4 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1 71 29 100
5 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 47 57 104
6 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 45 71 116
7 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 43 77 120
8 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 66 75 141
9 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 68 85 153
10 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4 79 74 153
11 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3 78 80 158
12 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 68 102 170
13 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 2 102 77 179
14 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 91 98 189
15 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 3 93 104 197
16 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 105 105 210
17 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 1 118 98 216
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 3 2 3 15 1 4 9 6 43 Aivan Durfee '25 [1-8]
Ivanni Jamin '24 [1-2, 6-7]
Gabriel Rousseau '27 [3-5, 8]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 1 1 4 8 9 1 4 17 45 Jack Kisling '25 [1-7]
Kyle Hirth '25 [8]
Kyle Hirth '25 [1-2, 5-7]
Sarah Kate Mcelroy '24 [3-4, 8]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 DNS 4 10 5 3 2 2 1 45 Ian Johnston '25
Cheyenne Ozaeta '27
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 7 5 8 2 5 9 1 10 47 Jt Long '25
Max Bloom '27
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2 5 14 2 1 8 7 8 5 50 Dante Massaro '26 [1-8]
Megan Amen-Kroeger '26 [1-7]
Lachlan Hodge '27 [8]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 4 8 1 11 15 8 5 4 56 Lucas Kasper '27 [1-8]
Alexis Kovacevic '27 [1-2]
Paulina Williams '26 [3-4]
Maya Peña '26 [5-7]
Andrew Harper '26 [8]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 13 3 5 14 17 3 3 8 66 Adem Evecek '25
Evie Evie '24
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 2 17 15 6 13 6 6 3 68 Alex Bussey '25
Carsten Hoeke '24
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 6 7 16 4 7 13 13 2 68 Orion Spatafora '25
Jonah Sullivan '25
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1 12 12 6 10 2 5 10 14 71 Connor Fagan '26 [1-8]
Caden Domingo '27 [1-4]
Maximus Suh '26 [5-7]
Elle Frankston '26 [8]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3 9 13 11 7 14 10 7 7 78 Colin Thompson '25 [1-8]
Gabriel Peralta '27 [1-2, 5-7]
Hazel Ross '27 [3-4]
Lea Bourges-Sevenier '27 [8]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4 11 6 9 3 10 15 14 11 79 Nathan Briar '26 [1-8]
Clare Parnham '27 [1-2, 6-7]
Luc Chone '27 [3-5]
Michelle Dorn '27 [8]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 10 10 12 12 4 14 16 13 91 John Gallagher '24 [1-8]
Greg Griffin '26 [1-2, 6-7]
Hanqi Ma '27 [3-5, 8]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 3 15 9 13 9 12 11 12 12 93 Alexander Lohan '24
Emerson Coskey '27
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 2 8 15 7 17 11 17 11 16 102 Sara Camarero '24
Aryaman Patel '24
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 16 16 14 13 6 16 15 9 105 Mason Norwood '26
Elias Ricken '27
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 1 14 11 17 16 16 12 17 15 118 Chloe Lighterink '24
Nicholas Conti '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 1 1 1 2 1 4 5 1 16 Garrett Henderson '27 [1-8]
Ryan Lovejoy '28 [1-2]
Noa Brassfield '25 [3-8]
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1 4 3 4 1 2 1 1 13 29 Devon Baker-Berry '26 [1-8]
Nathan Ho '26 [1-5]
Annika Burmester '27 [6-8]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 9 2 5 4 5 3 4 2 34 Jack Phibbs '27 [1-8]
Annika Burns '27 [1-2, 6-8]
Elizabeth Ellis '26 [3-5]
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2 3 4 10 6 4 2 3 14 46 Hunter Holguin '25 [1-8]
Max Lopez '27 [1-5]
Maggie Mceachen '27 [6-7]
Maximus Suh '26 [8]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 15 17 3 5 3 5 2 7 57 Andrew Kestenbaum '27
Vibhas Simha '27
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 11 13 6 10 9 6 6 10 71 Maria Gunness '25
Elsa Engesser '26
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4 8 8 2 8 11 12 16 9 74 Daniel Gates '26 [1-8]
Nathan Buehner '27 [1-2, 6-8]
Josephine Muss '27 [3-5]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 3 2 11 12 7 6 17 14 6 75 Laurence Mach '24
Anna Potapenko '24
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 2 7 5 17 9 12 9 10 8 77 Nathan Baer '27 [1-8]
Laith Moustafa '26 [1-2, 6-8]
Tristan Meyer '27 [3-5]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 12 9 7 3 7 8 13 OCS 77 Aidan Ramblas '24
Madalyn Gordon '25
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3 5 15 14 12 8 13 9 4 80 Dylan Tran '24 [1-8]
Paul Munsell '27 [1-2, 6-8]
Tyler Stump '26 [3-5]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 14 12 9 16 15 7 7 5 85 Sophia Pless '25
Johnathan Garcia '26
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 1 6 16 15 14 17 16 11 3 98 Blossom Jee '25
Stephanie Ng '26
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 13 7 16 15 14 10 8 15 98 Katinka Lennemann '26
Dana Roelofs '26
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 10 10 11 11 10 15 17 DNS 102 Aidan Araoz '25
Nitsa Thotz '26
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 3 DNS 6 13 17 13 11 15 11 104 Blossom Jee '25
Stephanie Ng '26
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 16 14 8 13 16 14 12 12 105 Elizabeth Ratterree '27 [1-8]
Maxwell Kandas '27 [1-5]
Ivanna Sepulveda Suarez '26 [6-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils139139139139139139139139
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears123123123123123123123123
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 144444444
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3311311311311311311311311
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4132132132132132132132132
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 1147147147147147147147147
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 2148148148148148148148148
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 34747474747474747
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1282282282282282282282282
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2271271271271271271271271
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 1291291291291291291291291
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 2292292292292292292292292
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 3295295295295295295295295
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos131131131131131131131131
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1134134134134134134134134
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 23333333333333333

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils139139139139139139139139
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears123123123123123123123123
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 144444444
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3311311311311311311311311
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4132132132132132132132132
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 1147147147147147147147147
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 2148148148148148148148148
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 34747474747474747
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1282282282282282282282282
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2271271271271271271271271
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 1291291291291291291291291
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 2292292292292292292292292
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 3295295295295295295295295
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos131131131131131131131131
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1134134134134134134134134
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 23333333333333333
School / Team SkipperCrew
Arizona State University Arizona State University Mason Norwood '26 Elias Ricken '27
Sun Devils Elizabeth Ratterree '27 [1-8] Maxwell Kandas '27 [1-5]
Ivanna Sepulveda Suarez '26 [6-8]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Lucas Kasper '27 [1-8] Alexis Kovacevic '27 [1-2]
Paulina Williams '26 [3-4]
Maya Peña '26 [5-7]
Andrew Harper '26 [8]
Mustangs 1 Jack Phibbs '27 [1-8] Annika Burns '27 [1-2, 6-8]
Elizabeth Ellis '26 [3-5]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Jack Kisling '25 [1-7]
Kyle Hirth '25 [8]		 Kyle Hirth '25 [1-2, 5-7]
Sarah Kate Mcelroy '24 [3-4, 8]
Mustangs 2 Garrett Henderson '27 [1-8] Ryan Lovejoy '28 [1-2]
Noa Brassfield '25 [3-8]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Colin Thompson '25 [1-8] Gabriel Peralta '27 [1-2, 5-7]
Hazel Ross '27 [3-4]
Lea Bourges-Sevenier '27 [8]
Mustangs 3 Dylan Tran '24 [1-8] Paul Munsell '27 [1-2, 6-8]
Tyler Stump '26 [3-5]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Nathan Briar '26 [1-8] Clare Parnham '27 [1-2, 6-7]
Luc Chone '27 [3-5]
Michelle Dorn '27 [8]
Mustangs 4 Daniel Gates '26 [1-8] Nathan Buehner '27 [1-2, 6-8]
Josephine Muss '27 [3-5]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Aivan Durfee '25 [1-8] Ivanni Jamin '24 [1-2, 6-7]
Gabriel Rousseau '27 [3-5, 8]
Bears Aidan Ramblas '24 Madalyn Gordon '25
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Chloe Lighterink '24 Nicholas Conti '26
Aggies 1 Blossom Jee '25 Stephanie Ng '26
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Sara Camarero '24 Aryaman Patel '24
Aggies 2 Nathan Baer '27 [1-8] Laith Moustafa '26 [1-2, 6-8]
Tristan Meyer '27 [3-5]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Alexander Lohan '24 Emerson Coskey '27
Aggies 3 Blossom Jee '25 Stephanie Ng '26
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Orion Spatafora '25 Jonah Sullivan '25
Bruins 1 Aidan Araoz '25 Nitsa Thotz '26
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles John Gallagher '24 [1-8] Greg Griffin '26 [1-2, 6-7]
Hanqi Ma '27 [3-5, 8]
Bruins 2 Katinka Lennemann '26 Dana Roelofs '26
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Ian Johnston '25 Cheyenne Ozaeta '27
Tritons 1 Maria Gunness '25 Elsa Engesser '26
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Alex Bussey '25 Carsten Hoeke '24
Tritons 2 Sophia Pless '25 Johnathan Garcia '26
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Adem Evecek '25 Evie Evie '24
Tritons 3 Laurence Mach '24 Anna Potapenko '24
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Jt Long '25 Max Bloom '27
Gauchos Andrew Kestenbaum '27 Vibhas Simha '27
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Connor Fagan '26 [1-8] Caden Domingo '27 [1-4]
Maximus Suh '26 [5-7]
Elle Frankston '26 [8]
Banana Slugs 1 Devon Baker-Berry '26 [1-8] Nathan Ho '26 [1-5]
Annika Burmester '27 [6-8]
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Dante Massaro '26 [1-8] Megan Amen-Kroeger '26 [1-7]
Lachlan Hodge '27 [8]
Banana Slugs 2 Hunter Holguin '25 [1-8] Max Lopez '27 [1-5]
Maggie Mceachen '27 [6-7]
Maximus Suh '26 [8]

Conditions — 02/24/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 52%  ·  Pressure 1016.5 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.5 kn
avg  ·  max 5.7 kn
Gusts to 12.2 kn
From SW (230°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover39% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1016.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 6 kn · SW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Cal Poly: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.23
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.49 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cal Poly by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Cal Poly, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →