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SAISA South Spring Tournament

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 1 7 2 9
2 University of South Florida University of South Florida Bulls 2 8 10
3 Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 4 9 13
4 Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Fins 2 8 10 18
5 University of Miami University of Miami Hurricanes 9 9 18
6 Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 14 4 18
7 Palm Beach Atlantic University Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish 15 15 30
8 University of Central Florida University of Central Florida Knights 16 15 31
9 University of Florida University of Florida Gators 15 22 37
10 College of Coastal Georgia College of Coastal Georgia Mariners 20 18 38
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.220+0.22
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2020 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
College of Coastal GeorgiaCollege of Coastal Georgia Mariners11
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles22
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators88
Florida Institute of TechnologyFlorida Institute of Technology Panthers33
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 144
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 255
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes99
Palm Beach Atlantic UniversityPalm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish66
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls1010
University of Central FloridaUniversity of Central Florida Knights77

Division B

Team1B2B
College of Coastal GeorgiaCollege of Coastal Georgia Mariners22
Embry-Riddle UniversityEmbry-Riddle University Eagles33
University of FloridaUniversity of Florida Gators99
Florida Institute of TechnologyFlorida Institute of Technology Panthers44
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 155
Jacksonville UniversityJacksonville University Fins 266
University of MiamiUniversity of Miami Hurricanes1010
Palm Beach Atlantic UniversityPalm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish77
University of South FloridaUniversity of South Florida Bulls11
University of Central FloridaUniversity of Central Florida Knights88

Conditions — 02/17/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 84%  ·  Pressure 1013.5 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.3 kn
avg  ·  max 6.5 kn
Gusts to 11.7 kn
From NW (308°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity84% Pressure1013.5 hPa Rain0.23 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Embry-Riddle: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.22)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.01 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.22 means a rating gap counts about 19% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Embry-Riddle by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Embry-Riddle, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →