| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
Jacksonville University | Fins | 5–3 |
| 3 |  |
University of South Florida | Bulls | 5–3 |
| 4 |  |
North Carolina State University | Wolfpack | 2–6 |
| 5 |  |
Florida State University | Seminoles | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Rollins College | Tars | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 24,295 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 20 of 22 matches (91%) with a log-loss of 0.243 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.46 ± 0.38: an orderly event, more orderly than 91% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | College of Charleston | 8.98 | 11.98 | 8–0 | 7.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 45% |
| 2 | Jacksonville University | 6.94 | 7.96 | 6–3 | 4.6 | +1.02 | 1.0 | 21% |
| 5 | Florida State University | 4.28 | 4.50 | 1–4 | 0.9 | +0.22 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 4 | North Carolina State University | 5.89 | 5.20 | 2–6 | 2.6 | −0.70 | 0.3 | 89% |
| 3 | University of South Florida | 7.63 | 6.88 | 5–4 | 6.0 | −0.75 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 6 | Rollins College | 3.97 | 0.97 | 0–5 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrikke Foss | College of Charleston | 2.62 | 5.62 | 8–0 | 7.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 45% |
| Agija Elerte | Jacksonville University | 2.09 | 3.11 | 6–3 | 4.6 | +1.02 | 1.0 | 21% |
| Isabella Du Plessis | North Carolina State University | 2.33 | 1.63 | 2–6 | 2.6 | −0.70 | 0.3 | 89% |
| Annika Milstien | North Carolina State University | 1.26 | 0.56 | 2–6 | 2.6 | −0.70 | 0.3 | 89% |
| Julia Scott | Rollins College | 1.54 | -1.46 | 0–5 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| Zi Burns | Rollins College | 0.90 | -2.10 | 0–5 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| Ka Hamner | Rollins College | 1.38 | -1.62 | 0–5 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Fins | Bulls | Wolfpack | Seminoles | Tars | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 3–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 4–1 | L | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| North Carolina State University Wolfpack | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Florida State University Seminoles | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Rollins College Tars | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Fins | Bulls | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville University Fins | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Cougars | Fins | Bulls | Wolfpack | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| College of Charleston Cougars | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Jacksonville University Fins | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of South Florida Bulls | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| North Carolina State University Wolfpack | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Fins | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tars | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-5-6 DNF |
| 4 | |
Bulls | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 2-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tars | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Bulls | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seminoles | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Fins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tars | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Seminoles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tars | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Bulls | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fins | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tars | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Fins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seminoles | 3-5-6 DNF |
| 15 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Fins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Bulls | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Fins | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Fins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 DNS |
| 21 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulls | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
College of Charleston | Cougars | Emma Tallman '25 Fredrikke Foss '25 Grace Squires '24 |
Rowan Schanley '24 Lucy Klempen '24 Marina Dryer '26 |
|
Jacksonville University | Fins | Agija Elerte '26 Emily Allen '25 Kaitlyn Liebel '26 |
Kayla Putzke '24 Reagan Carris '26 Payton Ruth '26 |
|
University of South Florida | Bulls | Emma Shakespeare '24 Kalea Woodard '24 Kay Brunsvold '25 |
Hannah Marsicano '24 Madisen Hamai '26 Saleta Powell '25 |
|
North Carolina State University | Wolfpack | Annika Milstien '25 Isabella Du Plessis '25 Olivia Sowa '24 |
Jane Caroline Minchew '25 Julia Boutet '27 Shea Hoffacker '27 |
|
Florida State University | Seminoles | Katie Nelson '24 Niah Ford '26 Tia Schoening '26 |
Avery Harris '25 Faith Hayden '26 Olivia Hoover '27 |
|
Rollins College | Tars | Julia Scott '27 Ka Hamner '26 Zi Burns '25 |
Jane Mckenzie '27 Angelina Khourisader '23 Nora Vandermeid '27 Maggie Burnham '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
