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Stony Brook Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 17–3
2 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 16–4
3 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 12–9
4 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 11–9
5 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 6–15
6 University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 3–17
7 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 3–18
8 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 0–21

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 28,606 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 2 of 3 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.662 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
7Stevens Institute of Technology
Ducks		1-0.33Oscar Mcmahan / Nolan Thompson
Tristan Feves / Ty Mazzga
Luke Saletta / Jack Ceriello		56%2–1 (67%)+0.3
8SUNY Stony Brook
Seawolves		2-0.55
school −0.14		Jeffrey Rhoads / Khai Hern Low
Cassandra Edwards / Avery Connor
Sophia Dimont / Ella Musso		44%1–2 (33%)−0.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
7Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks-0.330.142–11.7+0.470.158%
8SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves-0.55-1.021–21.3−0.470.183%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Oscar McmahanStevens Institute of Technology-0.110.362–11.7+0.470.158%
Tristan FevesStevens Institute of Technology0.130.602–11.7+0.470.158%
Luke SalettaStevens Institute of Technology-0.54-0.072–11.7+0.470.158%
Jeffrey RhoadsSUNY Stony Brook0.21-0.261–21.3−0.470.183%
Cassandra EdwardsSUNY Stony Brook-0.64-1.111–21.3−0.470.183%
Sophia DimontSUNY Stony Brook-0.16-0.631–21.3−0.470.183%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
121SUNY Stony Brook SeawolvesStevens Institute of Technology Ducks44%upset
249Stevens Institute of Technology DucksSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves56%
377Stevens Institute of Technology DucksSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves56%

Round 1

TeamRec.1Shoremen2LionsTigersHensDucksSeawolves
Fordham University Rams 112–2✕W✕WWWWW
Washington College Shoremen6–1L✕LWWWWW
Fordham University Rams 212–2✕W✕WWWWW
Columbia University Lions4–3LLL✕WWWW
Princeton University Tigers3–4LLLL✕WWW
University of Delaware Blue Hens2–5LLLLL✕WW
Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks0–7LLLLLL✕L
SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves1–6LLLLLLW✕

Round 2

TeamRec.1Shoremen2LionsTigersHensDucksSeawolves
Fordham University Rams 111–3✕W✕WWWWW
Washington College Shoremen6–1L✕LWWWWW
Fordham University Rams 211–3✕W✕WWWWW
Columbia University Lions5–2LLL✕WWWW
Princeton University Tigers3–4LLLL✕WWW
University of Delaware Blue Hens1–6LLLLL✕WL
Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks1–6LLLLLL✕W
SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves1–6LLLLLWL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.1Shoremen2LionsTigersHensDucksSeawolves
Fordham University Rams 110–3✕L✕WWWWW
Washington College Shoremen6–0W✕WWWWWW
Fordham University Rams 210–3✕L✕WWWWW
Columbia University Lions4–2LLL✕W–WW
Princeton University Tigers2–5LLLL✕WLW
University of Delaware Blue Hens2–4LLL–L✕WW
Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks2–5LLLLWL✕W
SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves0–7LLLLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Fordham University Rams 2 1-2-3 def. Princeton University Tigers 4-5-6
2 Fordham University Rams 1 1-2-3 def. Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 4-5-6
3 University of Delaware Blue Hens 1-2-3 def. SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4-5-6
4 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. Columbia University Lions 4-5-6
5 Fordham University Rams 2 1-2-3 def. Fordham University Rams 1 4-5-6
6 Princeton University Tigers 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6
7 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 4-5-6
8 Columbia University Lions 1-2-3 def. SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4-5-6
9 Fordham University Rams 1 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6
10 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. Fordham University Rams 2 4-5-6
11 Princeton University Tigers 1-2-3 def. SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4-5-6
12 Columbia University Lions 1-2-3 def. Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 4-5-6
13 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6
14 Fordham University Rams 1 1-2-3 def. SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4-5-6
15 Fordham University Rams 2 1-2-3 def. Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 4-5-6
16 Columbia University Lions 1-2-3 def. Princeton University Tigers 4-5-6
17 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4-5-6
18 University of Delaware Blue Hens 1-2-3 def. Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 4-5-6
19 Fordham University Rams 1 1-2-3 def. Princeton University Tigers 4-5-6
20 Fordham University Rams 2 1-2-3 def. Columbia University Lions 4-5-6
21 SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1-2-3 def. Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 4-5-6
22 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. Princeton University Tigers 4-5-6
23 Fordham University Rams 2 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6
24 Fordham University Rams 1 1-2-3 def. Columbia University Lions 4-5-6
25 Princeton University Tigers 1-2-3 def. Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 4-5-6
26 Fordham University Rams 2 1-2-3 def. SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4-5-6
27 Fordham University Rams 1 1-2-3 def. Washington College Shoremen 4-5-6
28 Columbia University Lions 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6
29 Fordham University Rams 2 1-2-3 def. Princeton University Tigers 4-5-6
30 Fordham University Rams 1 1-2-3 def. Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 4-5-6
31 SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6
32 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. Columbia University Lions 4-5-6
33 Fordham University Rams 1 1-2-3 def. Fordham University Rams 2 4-5-6
34 Princeton University Tigers 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6
35 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 4-5-6
36 Columbia University Lions 1-2-3 def. SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4-5-6
37 Fordham University Rams 1 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6
38 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. Fordham University Rams 2 4-5-6
39 Princeton University Tigers 1-2-3 def. SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4-5-6
40 Columbia University Lions 1-2-3 def. Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 4-5-6
41 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6
42 Fordham University Rams 1 1-2-3 def. SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4-5-6
43 Fordham University Rams 2 1-2-3 def. Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 4-5-6
44 Columbia University Lions 1-2-3 def. Princeton University Tigers 4-5-6
45 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4-5-6
46 University of Delaware Blue Hens 1-2-3 def. Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 4-5-6
47 Fordham University Rams 1 1-2-3 def. Princeton University Tigers 4-5-6
48 Columbia University Lions 1-2-3 def. Fordham University Rams 2 4-5-6
49 Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 1-2-3 def. SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4-5-6
50 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. Princeton University Tigers 4-5-6
51 Fordham University Rams 2 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6
52 Fordham University Rams 1 1-2-3 def. Columbia University Lions 4-5-6
53 Princeton University Tigers 1-2-3 def. Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 4-5-6
54 Fordham University Rams 2 1-2-3 def. SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4-5-6
55 Fordham University Rams 1 1-2-3 def. Washington College Shoremen 4-5-6
56 Columbia University Lions 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6
57 Fordham University Rams 2 1-2-3 def. Princeton University Tigers 4-5-6
58 Fordham University Rams 1 1-2-3 def. Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 4-5-6
59 University of Delaware Blue Hens 1-2-3 def. SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4-5-6
60 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. Columbia University Lions 4-5-6
61 Fordham University Rams 1 1-2-3 def. Fordham University Rams 2 4-5-6
62 Princeton University Tigers 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6
63 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 4-5-6
64 Columbia University Lions 1-2-3 def. SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4-5-6
65 Fordham University Rams 1 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6
66 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. Fordham University Rams 2 4-5-6
67 Princeton University Tigers 1-2-3 def. SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4-5-6
68 Columbia University Lions 1-2-3 def. Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 4-5-6
69 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6
70 Fordham University Rams 1 1-2-3 def. SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4-5-6
71 Fordham University Rams 2 1-2-3 def. Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 4-5-6
72 Columbia University Lions 1-2-3 def. Princeton University Tigers 4-5-6
73 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4-5-6
74 University of Delaware Blue Hens 1-2-3 def. Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 4-5-6
75 Fordham University Rams 1 1-2-3 def. Princeton University Tigers 4-5-6
76 Columbia University Lions 1-2-3 def. Fordham University Rams 2 4-5-6
77 Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 1-2-3 def. SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4-5-6
78 Washington College Shoremen 1-2-3 def. Princeton University Tigers 4-5-6
79 Fordham University Rams 2 1-2-3 def. University of Delaware Blue Hens 4-5-6
80 Fordham University Rams 1 1-2-3 def. Columbia University Lions 4-5-6
81 Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 1-2-3 def. Princeton University Tigers 4-5-6
82 Fordham University Rams 2 1-2-3 def. SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 4-5-6

Conditions — 03/07/2026 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 91%  ·  Pressure 1021.2 hPa

Temperature

41°F
↑ 46°F   ↓ 35°F
Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.1 kn
avg  ·  max 6.2 kn
Gusts to 15.2 kn
From S (184°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.2 hrs Humidity91% Pressure1021.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Fordham — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Fordham in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Fordham by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled fleet-race days at Fordham).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →