Connecticut College '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 8–16 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | — | 8–16 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (24 matches) the record is 8–16 against 6.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-13 | Women's Team Race National Invitational | crew | 0.84 | 1.20 | 4–16 | 3.2 | +0.36 | 0.2 | 39% |
| 2019-03-23 | Staake Team Race NE Qualifier | crew | 2.87 | 5.87 | 4–0 | 3.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 58% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Crew | B | 4 | 14.8 | — |
| Women's Weekday Invite Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 4.2 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | A | 4 | 12.8 | — |
| Nickerson Trophy | Crew | B | 4 | 17.0 | — |
| Central Series6 | Crew | A, B | 8 | 6.0 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Ellen Reagan |  Northeastern University |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
