Indiana University '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.99 (fleet 1.28) | 311 of 328 | +0.06 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–31 (11%) as crew 7–7 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 3–17 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 1–14 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | — | 7–7 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (49 matches) the record is 11–38 against 6.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.8). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Big 10 Team Race | skipper | 1.17 | 3.04 | 3–7 | 0.7 | +1.88 | 3.6 | 3% |
| 2026-02-28 | Nelson Roltsch Team Race | skipper | 1.27 | -1.73 | 0–10 | 0.0 | ≤−3.00 | 0.0 | >99% |
| 2025-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 1.45 | 1.34 | 1–14 | 1.0 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 93% |
| 2024-03-02 | Garner Tullis | crew | 1.64 | 3.14 | 7–7 | 4.5 | +1.50 | 2.7 | 5% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Fall Fury | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.0 | 1.39 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Nigel Yu |  University of Wisconsin |
'27 |
| ISSA | Nigel Yu |  Minnetonka High School |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
