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Fall Fury

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 16 6 22
2 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 18 10 28
3 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 22 16 38
4 Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 18 26 44
5 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 23 32 55
6 Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 32 23 55
7 Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 21 37 58
8 University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 36 22 58
9 Washington University Washington University Bears 28 44 72
10 Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 32 42 74
11 Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 34 41 75
12 Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 42 36 78
13 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 47 34 81
14 Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 54 56 110
15 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 60 55 115
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 10 2 2 16 Nicholas Chesemore '27
Cora Star '26
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 3 2 9 4 18 Quinn Kaiser '26
Jenna Princing '28
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 9 3 1 5 18 Lucas Nykamp '29
Ella Sligh '28
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 5 1 8 7 21 Andrew Wiand '29
Jack Armstrong '29
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 DSQ 4 1 22 Lorenzo Puertas '29
Grace Redner '27
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 4 11 5 3 23 Scott Mather '27
Evelyn Dubois '27
Washington University Washington University Bears 6 4 10 8 28 Wyatt Tait '27
Jacob Hsia '26
Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 7 5 11 9 32 Nigel Yu '27
Bryce Lesinski '27
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 11 8 3 10 32 Ryan Dodge '26
Talena Monasmith '26
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 10 6 7 11 34 Marco Constantini '27
Leo Barch '27
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 12 12 6 6 36 Greg Bittle '25
Lily Lupardus '27
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 8 9 12 13 42 Brian Zettlemoyer '27
Kendall Herzog '26
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 14 7 14 12 47 Hayden Johansen '27
Drake Mayer '26
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 13 13 13 15 54 Nathaniel Bacheller '28
Roland Palmer '27
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 15 OCS 15 14 60 Patrick Gardiner '26
Austin Hargus '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 1 2 1 6 George Warfel '26
Maddie Fitzgerald '26
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 2 3 4 10 William Styslinger '28
Paige Kurtenbach '27
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 8 5 1 2 16 John Mccalmont '27 [1-2]
Graham Rebain '29 [3-4]
Oliver Peloquin '26 [1-2]
John Mccalmont '27 [3-4]
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Tommies 3 3 10 6 22 Rakesh Dhiman '26
Leila Montoya '28
Indiana University Indiana University Hoosiers 7 9 4 3 23 Carter Harms '27
Andreus Lara '29
Hope College Hope College Flying Dutchmen 6 4 7 9 26 Caroline Henry '27
Adelyn Zimmerman '28
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 4 12 9 7 32 Kate Hennig '26
Menya Bird '26
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 5 7 12 10 34 Isaac Sparber '26
Diya Shah '26
Marquette University Marquette University Golden Eagles 12 13 6 5 36 Benjamin Karle '28
Jacob Millman '26
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Husky One 9 6 14 8 37 Casey Dietsch '26 [1-4]
Charles Regan '28 [1-2]
Emilio Portillo '29 [3-4]
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Wildcats 10 8 11 12 41 Ted Johnston '26
Matt Cramer '26
Michigan State University Michigan State University Spartans 13 10 5 14 42 Lucia Sharp '29 [1-4]
Spencer Margolis '26 [1-2]
Oliver Zawadzki '29 [3-4]
Washington University Washington University Bears 11 14 8 11 44 Alexandra Adams '28 [1-4]
Greta Mueller '28 [1-2]
Peter Gavahan '29 [3-4]
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 14 11 15 15 55 Viviane Carroll '27 [1-2]
Mason Norwood '26 [3-4]
Christopher Moore '26 [1-2]
Cade Januszewski '27 [3-4]
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Lakers 15 15 13 13 56 Lucy Herlein '29
Logan Thien '29
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (21 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils1133
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers2255
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen3366
Indiana UniversityIndiana University Hoosiers5577
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles6699
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines14141616
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans771111
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One991212
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers15151717
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats11111313
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats12121414
University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies16161818
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies13131515
Washington UniversityWashington University Bears181822
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers171711

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils2255
Grand Valley State UniversityGrand Valley State University Lakers3366
Hope CollegeHope College Flying Dutchmen5577
Indiana UniversityIndiana University Hoosiers6699
Marquette UniversityMarquette University Golden Eagles771111
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines15151717
Michigan State UniversityMichigan State University Spartans991212
Michigan Technological UniversityMichigan Technological University Husky One11111313
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers16161818
Northern Michigan UniversityNorthern Michigan University Wildcats12121414
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats13131515
University of Saint ThomasUniversity of Saint Thomas Tommies171711
Texas A&M UniversityTexas A&M University Aggies14141616
Washington UniversityWashington University Bears1133
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers181822
School / Team SkipperCrew
Arizona State University Arizona State University Patrick Gardiner '26 Austin Hargus '27
Sun Devils Viviane Carroll '27 [1-2]
Mason Norwood '26 [3-4]		 Christopher Moore '26 [1-2]
Cade Januszewski '27 [3-4]
Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University Nathaniel Bacheller '28 Roland Palmer '27
Lakers Lucy Herlein '29 Logan Thien '29
Hope College Hope College Lucas Nykamp '29 Ella Sligh '28
Flying Dutchmen Caroline Henry '27 Adelyn Zimmerman '28
Indiana University Indiana University Nigel Yu '27 Bryce Lesinski '27
Hoosiers Carter Harms '27 Andreus Lara '29
Marquette University Marquette University Brian Zettlemoyer '27 Kendall Herzog '26
Golden Eagles Benjamin Karle '28 Jacob Millman '26
Michigan State University Michigan State University Ryan Dodge '26 Talena Monasmith '26
Spartans Lucia Sharp '29 [1-4] Spencer Margolis '26 [1-2]
Oliver Zawadzki '29 [3-4]
Michigan Technological University Michigan Technological University Andrew Wiand '29 Jack Armstrong '29
Husky One Casey Dietsch '26 [1-4] Charles Regan '28 [1-2]
Emilio Portillo '29 [3-4]
Northern Michigan University Northern Michigan University Marco Constantini '27 Leo Barch '27
Wildcats Ted Johnston '26 Matt Cramer '26
Northwestern University Northwestern University Nicholas Chesemore '27 Cora Star '26
Wildcats George Warfel '26 Maddie Fitzgerald '26
Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Scott Mather '27 Evelyn Dubois '27
Aggies Kate Hennig '26 Menya Bird '26
University of Michigan University of Michigan Lorenzo Puertas '29 Grace Redner '27
Wolverines John Mccalmont '27 [1-2]
Graham Rebain '29 [3-4]		 Oliver Peloquin '26 [1-2]
John Mccalmont '27 [3-4]
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Hayden Johansen '27 Drake Mayer '26
Gophers Isaac Sparber '26 Diya Shah '26
University of Saint Thomas University of Saint Thomas Greg Bittle '25 Lily Lupardus '27
Tommies Rakesh Dhiman '26 Leila Montoya '28
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Quinn Kaiser '26 Jenna Princing '28
Badgers William Styslinger '28 Paige Kurtenbach '27
Washington University Washington University Wyatt Tait '27 Jacob Hsia '26
Bears Alexandra Adams '28 [1-4] Greta Mueller '28 [1-2]
Peter Gavahan '29 [3-4]

Conditions — 09/13/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 76%  ·  Pressure 1014.9 hPa

Temperature

74°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.4 kn
avg  ·  max 9.8 kn
Gusts to 18.3 kn
From SE (130°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover50% Sunshine7.8 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1014.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 6 kn* · E 7 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Wisconsin: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.18
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.05 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Wisconsin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (41 labelled days at Wisconsin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →