SAISA Cressy Qualifier [Radials]

HostRansom Everglades
Date09/21/2019
TypeDistrict Champ Qualifier
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Antilles School	Mateo Di Blasi '21	41
2	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Nicholas Reeser '22	43
3	Ransom Everglades School	Javier Garcon '21	66
4	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Guthrie Braun '22	68
5	McIntosh High School	Daniel Escudero '20	70
6	Immaculata La Salle High School	Justin Callahan '22	88
7	Good Hope County Day School	Mathieu Dale '21	141
8	William T. Dwyer High School	Ethan Homberger '21	145
9	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Heather Kerns '20	170
10	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Ethan Danielson '22	175
11	Stanton College Prep	Max Zhalilo '22	195
12	Antilles School	Julian Van Den Driessche '20	204
13	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Heidi Hicks '21	216
14	Immaculata La Salle High School	Mitchell Callahan '22	219
15	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Kaitlyn Hamilton '22	225
16	—		235
17	Belen Jesuit Preparatory School	Sammy Clark '21	238
18	St. Petersburg High School	Emily Allen '21	288
19	Tampa Christian Community School	Preston Weaver '23	311
20	St. Petersburg High School	Emma Shakespeare '20	314
21	Lemon Bay High School	Morgan Smith '23	321
22	McIntosh High School	Amaya Escudero '22	343
23	MAST Academy	Marina Geilen '22	362
24	The Pine School	Peter Foley '22	380
25	MAST Academy	Liam Dorsey '23	414
26	Bishop Kenny High School - FL	William Weinbecker '21	415
27	Antilles School	Katherine Majette '23	420
28	Ransom Everglades School	Jackson Mcaliley '23	422
29	Sarasota High School	Thommi Gritt '22	425
30	Antilles School	Mia Nicolosi '21	439
31	H. B. Plant High School	Garrett Brooks '22	443
32	Hibernian Private School	Dmitriy Ovren '22	478
33	Paxon School for Advanced Studies	Wesley Myler '21	498
34	St. Petersburg High School	Logan Rimel '23	499
35	Gulliver Preparatory School	Chris Purcell '21	500
36	H. B. Plant High School	Reid Nelson '23	503
37	St. Petersburg High School	Akseli Heikenin '21	525
38	Wando	Zack Carvajal '22	545
39	Ransom Everglades School	Eva Gonzalez '22	611
40	Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bridget Monahan '22	622
41	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Trevor Hicks '23	624
42	Lake Highland Preparatory School	Jack Carter '23	626
43	James Island Charter High School	Jack Mckenzie '23	643
44	St. Petersburg High School	Sidney Moyer '23	649
45	Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Maggie Mclauchlin '21	673
46	H. B. Plant High School	Ian Brown '23	705

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	TOT
Antilles School	Mateo Di Blasi '21	2	1	2	6	1	1	2	2	5	5	5	2	2	2	3	41
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Nicholas Reeser '22	1	2	4	1	7	4	1	3	1	3	2	4	4	5	1	43
Ransom Everglades School	Javier Garcon '21	3	6	5	8	3	7	3	5	3	1	6	7	1	4	4	66
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Guthrie Braun '22	5	5	1	4	2	3	4	6	9	4	4	3	7	3	8	68
McIntosh High School	Daniel Escudero '20	10	10	6	2	6	6	8	1	2	6	1	1	8	1	2	70
Immaculata La Salle High School	Justin Callahan '22	6	3	3	5	5	2	5	10	12	2	7	5	5	13	5	88
Good Hope County Day School	Mathieu Dale '21	4	4	10	3	4	5	7	4	DNF	19	3	16	3	6	6	141
William T. Dwyer High School	Ethan Homberger '21	9	7	12	11	8	12	16	7	4	8	16	13	6	7	9	145
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Heather Kerns '20	7	14	9	12	21	18	10	8	7	9	8	12	13	9	13	170
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Ethan Danielson '22	16	9	8	9	17	8	17	11	8	10	9	9	11	21	12	175
Stanton College Prep	Max Zhalilo '22	12	16	16	10	11	14	25	13	6	7	10	19	14	15	7	195
Antilles School	Julian Van Den Driessche '20	17	13	7	15	10	15	15	19	11	18	14	8	15	17	10	204
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Heidi Hicks '21	34	11	17	14	14	21	11	9	13	16	13	6	12	8	17	216
Immaculata La Salle High School	Mitchell Callahan '22	28	23	13	16	9	11	9	15	10	13	15	15	19	12	11	219
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Kaitlyn Hamilton '22	25	25	11	18	12	17	12	17	17	11	11	14	10	11	14	225
—		14	33	18	19	16	10	13	14	14	17	18	11	9	14	15	235
Belen Jesuit Preparatory School	Sammy Clark '21	18	22	14	17	15	9	21	16	15	14	12	17	22	10	16	238
St. Petersburg High School	Emily Allen '21	8	8	20	13	22	19	19	18	16	12	36	23	20	20	34	288
Tampa Christian Community School	Preston Weaver '23	11	OCS	24	38	18	23	14	12	22	15	21	10	17	16	23	311
St. Petersburg High School	Emma Shakespeare '20	20	20	23	23	25	26	22	21	20	21	20	20	16	18	19	314
Lemon Bay High School	Morgan Smith '23	13	15	22	28	19	25	34	20	19	20	17	18	30	19	22	321
McIntosh High School	Amaya Escudero '22	23	31	15	26	13	20	18	22	26	27	33	25	21	25	18	343
MAST Academy	Marina Geilen '22	22	12	21	20	28	16	DNF	OCS	18	30	19	21	18	22	21	362
The Pine School	Peter Foley '22	27	21	28	25	32	22	26	25	21	22	29	27	31	24	20	380
MAST Academy	Liam Dorsey '23	21	24	25	22	26	34	32	26	28	24	31	29	32	31	29	414
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	William Weinbecker '21	35	28	31	24	30	29	27	29	23	36	22	24	26	26	25	415
Antilles School	Katherine Majette '23	19	30	DNF	31	24	24	28	27	25	23	38	31	23	23	27	420
Ransom Everglades School	Jackson Mcaliley '23	31	34	27	30	27	33	20	23	27	28	24	34	29	27	28	422
Sarasota High School	Thommi Gritt '22	24	29	30	21	31	27	OCS	24	30	31	28	22	27	28	26	425
Antilles School	Mia Nicolosi '21	26	19	26	29	33	31	31	28	24	33	35	30	34	36	24	439
H. B. Plant High School	Garrett Brooks '22	30	38	29	27	20	28	23	34	39	39	23	28	25	30	30	443
Hibernian Private School	Dmitriy Ovren '22	40	18	38	35	37	36	29	38	35	29	25	26	24	33	35	478
Paxon School for Advanced Studies	Wesley Myler '21	36	32	32	33	23	32	30	30	31	32	32	32	DNF	29	DNF	498
St. Petersburg High School	Logan Rimel '23	32	35	36	32	35	37	35	32	32	34	30	35	28	35	31	499
Gulliver Preparatory School	Chris Purcell '21	15	17	19	7	DNF	13	6	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	500
H. B. Plant High School	Reid Nelson '23	33	40	33	34	39	38	33	33	33	25	26	36	33	34	33	503
St. Petersburg High School	Akseli Heikenin '21	37	27	35	36	DSQ	35	DNF	36	29	37	27	33	35	32	32	525
Wando	Zack Carvajal '22	29	26	34	DNF	29	30	24	31	34	26	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	545
Ransom Everglades School	Eva Gonzalez '22	38	42	DNF	DNF	DNF	43	39	39	41	41	40	38	36	37	36	611
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bridget Monahan '22	45	43	DNF	39	DNF	40	36	42	40	DNF	37	37	37	38	DNF	622
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Trevor Hicks '23	41	36	40	41	38	41	38	37	37	40	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	624
Lake Highland Preparatory School	Jack Carter '23	43	37	37	37	40	42	DNF	40	38	38	39	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	626
James Island Charter High School	Jack Mckenzie '23	39	41	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	35	36	35	34	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	643
St. Petersburg High School	Sidney Moyer '23	42	44	41	40	36	39	37	41	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	649
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Maggie Mclauchlin '21	44	39	39	DNF	34	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	673
H. B. Plant High School	Ian Brown '23	DNF	DNS	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	705

Boat Speed Analyzer

Division A

	Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A	14A	15A
	—	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54	54

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 46 boats · 15 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Mateo Di Blasi '21	Antilles School Hurricanes 2	15/15	2.58	5.91	+3.33	93rd → 99th	32.9	<1%	2.7 / 18.2
2	Nicholas Reeser '22	St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 2	15/15	1.52^u	5.82	+4.30	74th → 99th	48.9	<1%	2.9 / 25.3
3	Javier Garcon '21	Ransom Everglades School Raiders 2	15/15	3.09	5.00	+1.90	99th → 99th	14.3	1%	4.4 / 15.3
4	Guthrie Braun '22	Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 1	15/15	3.05	4.93	+1.88	99th → 99th	14.1	<1%	4.5 / 15.2
5	Daniel Escudero '20	McIntosh High School McIntosh 1	15/15	3.42	4.85	+1.43	99th → 99th	8.8	<1%	4.7 / 13.3
6	Justin Callahan '22	Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 2	15/15	3.41	4.43	+1.02	99th → 99th	4.9	5%	5.9 / 13.3
7	Mathieu Dale '21	Good Hope County Day School	15/15	2.79	4.17	+1.37	96th → 99th	8.0	5%	9.4 / 16.7
8	Ethan Homberger '21	William T. Dwyer High School	15/15	1.26	3.67	+2.40	66th → 99th	22.2	<1%	9.7 / 27.3
9	Heather Kerns '20	Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 2	15/15	1.79	3.38	+1.59	80th → 99th	11.4	<1%	11.3 / 23.7
10	Ethan Danielson '22	Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 3	15/15	2.26	3.31	+1.05	87th → 99th	5.6	3%	11.7 / 20.3
11	Max Zhalilo '22	Stanton College Prep	15/15	1.57	3.11	+1.54	74th → 99th	10.8	3%	13.0 / 25.0
12	Julian Van Den Driessche '20	Antilles School Hurricanes 1	15/15	2.51	3.07	+0.55	92nd → 99th	1.7	15%	13.6 / 18.7
13	Heidi Hicks '21	Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 4	15/15	1.21	2.91	+1.69	65th → 97th	12.7	1%	14.4 / 27.5
14	Mitchell Callahan '22	Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 1	15/15	2.97	2.88	−0.09	98th → 97th	0.1	44%	14.6 / 16.0
15	Kaitlyn Hamilton '22	St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 1	15/15	2.27	2.89	+0.62	88th → 97th	2.2	15%	15.0 / 20.3
17	Sammy Clark '21	Belen Jesuit Preparatory School	15/15	1.43^u	2.80	+1.37	71st → 96th	8.9	6%	15.9 / 26.0
18	Emily Allen '21	St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 1	15/15	1.08	2.05	+0.97	60th → 83rd	4.8	4%	19.2 / 28.3
19	Preston Weaver '23	Tampa Christian Community School	15/15	1.63^u	2.26	+0.63	76th → 88th	2.1	28%	20.7 / 24.6
20	Emma Shakespeare '20	St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 3	15/15	1.35	2.28	+0.93	68th → 88th	4.6	20%	20.9 / 26.7
21	Morgan Smith '23	Lemon Bay High School	15/15	2.70	2.03	−0.67	95th → 83rd	3.4	79%	21.4 / 17.5
22	Amaya Escudero '22	McIntosh High School McIntosh 2	15/15	1.47^u	1.99	+0.53	72nd → 83rd	1.6	35%	22.9 / 25.6
23	Marina Geilen '22	MAST Academy Mast Academy 1	15/15	1.95	2.23	+0.28	82nd → 87th	0.4	60%	24.1 / 22.5
24	Peter Foley '22	The Pine School	15/15	1.99	1.77	−0.22	83rd → 79th	0.3	68%	25.3 / 22.2
25	Liam Dorsey '23	MAST Academy Mast Academy 2	15/15	1.28^u	1.52	+0.24	67th → 74th	0.3	55%	27.6 / 26.6
26	William Weinbecker '21	Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 1	15/15	1.85	1.54	−0.32	81st → 74th	0.7	74%	27.7 / 23.3
27	Katherine Majette '23	Antilles School Hurricanes 4	15/15	1.63^u	1.54	−0.09	76th → 74th	0.0	70%	28.0 / 24.5
28	Jackson Mcaliley '23	Ransom Everglades School Raiders 3	15/15	3.09	1.36	−1.72	99th → 68th	30.1	>99%	28.1 / 15.1
29	Thommi Gritt '22	Sarasota High School	15/15	2.01	1.62	−0.40	83rd → 75th	1.1	82%	28.3 / 22.0
30	Mia Nicolosi '21	Antilles School Hurricanes 3	15/15	2.45	1.16	−1.29	91st → 64th	14.6	93%	29.3 / 19.4
31	Garrett Brooks '22	H. B. Plant High School Panthers 3	15/15	0.99	1.17	+0.18	57th → 64th	0.2	53%	29.5 / 28.8
32	Dmitriy Ovren '22	Hibernian Private School	15/15	1.22^u	0.88	−0.34	65th → 53rd	0.8	75%	31.9 / 27.2
33	Wesley Myler '21	Paxon School for Advanced Studies	15/15	1.14^u	1.28	+0.14	62nd → 66th	0.1	79%	33.2 / 27.9
34	Logan Rimel '23	St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 5	15/15	0.71	0.96	+0.25	45th → 57th	0.4	65%	33.3 / 30.5
35	Chris Purcell '21	Gulliver Preparatory School	15/15	2.07	3.23	+1.16	84th → 99th	2.6	97%	33.3 / 21.6
36	Reid Nelson '23	H. B. Plant High School Panthers 2	15/15	1.24	0.78	−0.46	65th → 49th	1.5	83%	33.5 / 27.1
37	Akseli Heikenin '21	St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 4	15/15	1.15^u	0.89	−0.26	63rd → 54th	0.4	87%	35.0 / 27.7
38	Zack Carvajal '22	Wando	15/15	1.80	1.43	−0.36	80th → 71st	0.6	98%	36.3 / 23.6
39	Eva Gonzalez '22	Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1	15/15	0.77	-1.24	−2.02	49th → 2nd	15.1	98%	40.7 / 29.9
40	Bridget Monahan '22	Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 2	15/15	1.25	-0.66	−1.91	66th → 8th	17.5	100%	41.5 / 27.2
41	Trevor Hicks '23	Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 5	15/15	0.61	0.07	−0.54	43rd → 24th	1.3	98%	41.6 / 30.9
42	Jack Carter '23	Lake Highland Preparatory School	15/15	1.54	-0.06	−1.60	74th → 20th	14.2	>99%	41.7 / 25.1
43	Jack Mckenzie '23	James Island Charter High School	15/15	1.04	0.67	−0.38	59th → 45th	0.4	>99%	42.9 / 28.4
44	Sidney Moyer '23	St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 2	15/15	2.37	-0.56	−2.93	89th → 10th	44.7	>99%	43.3 / 19.6
45	Maggie Mclauchlin '21	Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 3	15/15	0.66	0.35	−0.31	45th → 32nd	0.2	>99%	44.9 / 30.7
46	Ian Brown '23	H. B. Plant High School Panthers 1	15/15	0.81^u	—	—	51st → —	0.0	>99%	47.0 / 29.9

Conditions — 09/21/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 74% · Pressure 1017.4 hPa

Temperature

82°F

↑ 84°F ↓ 78°F

Feels like 84°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

14.7 kn

avg · max 17.8 kn

Gusts to 32.9 kn

From ENE (59°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover66% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1017.4 hPa Rain0.23 in

What this breeze does at Ransom Everglades — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 16 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Ransom Everglades in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.20)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.20 means a rating gap counts about 17% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ransom Everglades by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 14 labelled days at Ransom Everglades, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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