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ISSA Cressy Singlehanded Nationals ILCA 7

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 TOT
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Guthrie Braun '22 1 1 2 1 2 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 20
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Jack Baldwin '22 5 3 OCS 4 7 2 2 10 3 3 10 4 12 5 5 94
Seattle Prep Seattle Prep Jack Carroll '24 9 2 4 9 9 6 1 4 13 7 12 2 14 7 2 101
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Ethan Danielson '22 3 4 7 2 6 3 5 14 10 4 15 18 11 2 3 107
Palos Verdes High School Palos Verdes High School Tommy Kraak '24 7 11 1 11 1 7 17 1 2 5 7 12 2 15 11 110
Lemon Bay High School Lemon Bay High School Morgan Smith '23 8 7 3 7 3 4 4 6 11 10 6 3 16 18 14 120
The Grauer School The Grauer School Devon Owen '23 12 14 9 6 8 5 15 8 8 2 2 8 5 8 15 125
Norfolk Academy Norfolk Academy Sean Trudell '24 4 6 10 3 5 10 7 17 7 12 5 15 15 4 10 130
Weston High School Weston High School William Walker '26 11 13 12 8 14 11 14 13 5 16 3 9 7 6 9 151
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Henry Scholz '23 2 9 6 15 16 9 18 5 14 8 14 10 13 9 4 152
Greens Farms Academy Greens Farms Academy Harrison Stevens '22 16 12 8 5 12 15 8 15 9 6 18 14 3 3 17 161
Montclair Kimberley Academy Montclair Kimberley Academy Aidan Cunningham '22 17 5 5 12 4 14 10 16 16 15 13 6 4 16 12 165
Rockwall-Heath High School Rockwall-Heath High School Aston Atherton '22 6 10 11 14 15 8 11 11 15 11 9 16 8 13 8 166
Point Pleasant Beach High School Point Pleasant Beach High School Zylinski Luke '22 10 8 14 16 11 18 13 7 6 14 11 17 6 17 7 175
Norfolk Collegiate School Norfolk Collegiate School Harrison Thomson '22 15 17 16 10 17 13 9 3 12 9 8 5 17 11 13 175
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Owen Harrod '22 13 15 OCS 13 10 12 6 9 17 13 17 7 10 10 16 187
Barrington High School Barrington High School Olin Guck '22 14 16 15 17 13 16 12 12 4 17 4 13 9 12 18 192
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Jackson Walker '23 18 18 13 18 18 17 16 18 18 18 16 11 18 14 6 237

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 15 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Guthrie Braun '22Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 215/153.457.19+3.7399th → 99th28.7<1%1.3 / 6.3
2Jack Baldwin '22Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL15/153.323.62+0.3099th → 99th0.445%6.3 / 6.6
3Jack Carroll '24Seattle Prep15/152.67u3.17+0.5095th → 99th1.328%6.7 / 8.3
4Ethan Danielson '22Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 115/152.522.69+0.1792nd → 95th0.123%7.1 / 8.7
5Tommy Kraak '24Palos Verdes High School15/152.192.82+0.6386th → 96th2.020%7.3 / 9.6
6Morgan Smith '23Lemon Bay High School15/152.702.56−0.1395th → 92nd0.146%8.0 / 8.3
7Devon Owen '23The Grauer School15/153.092.58−0.5199th → 93rd1.774%8.3 / 7.3
8Sean Trudell '24Norfolk Academy15/152.122.48+0.3784th → 92nd0.731%8.7 / 9.7
9William Walker '26Weston High School15/150.832.33+1.5051st → 89th10.112%10.1 / 13.0
10Henry Scholz '23Lake Forest High School15/152.922.00−0.9298th → 83rd5.690%10.1 / 7.6
11Harrison Stevens '22Greens Farms Academy15/151.691.90+0.2078th → 82nd0.247%10.7 / 10.9
12Aidan Cunningham '22Montclair Kimberley Academy15/152.501.85−0.6592nd → 81st2.885%11.0 / 8.9
13Aston Atherton '22Rockwall-Heath High School15/150.882.20+1.3253rd → 86th8.116%11.1 / 12.9
14Harrison Thomson '22Norfolk Collegiate School15/152.201.61−0.6086th → 75th2.179%11.7 / 9.6
14Zylinski Luke '22Point Pleasant Beach High School15/151.741.68−0.0679th → 77th0.065%11.7 / 10.7
16Owen Harrod '22Mahtomedi15/151.981.85−0.1383rd → 81st0.187%12.5 / 10.2
17Olin Guck '22Barrington High School15/151.781.37−0.4180th → 68th1.080%12.8 / 10.6
18Jackson Walker '23Arrowhead High School15/151.340.03−1.3168th → 22nd7.197%15.8 / 11.8

Conditions — 12/18/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 77%  ·  Pressure 1019.5 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 74°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.7 kn
avg  ·  max 13.0 kn
Gusts to 23.5 kn
From SE (127°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1019.5 hPa Rain0.06 in

What this breeze does at Saint Thomas Aquinas — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Saint Thomas Aquinas in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.10)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Saint Thomas Aquinas by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Saint Thomas Aquinas, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →