NJISA 2021 Fall Series 3

HostChristian Brothers
Date09/29/2021
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	19	6	25
2	Ranney School	Panthers 1	14	14	28
3	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	15	20	35
4	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	24	15	39
5	Toms River North	Mariners	20	24	44
6	Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	16	36	52
7	Biotechnology High School	Nerds	30	23	53
8	Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	36	21	57
9	Ranney School	Panthers 2	39	33	72
10	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 4	28	45	73
11	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	54	40	94
12	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	42	56	98
13	Westfield High School	Blue Devils	53	46	99
14	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	46	53	99
15	Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	53	48	101
16	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	56	65	121

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers 1	2	2	6	4	14	Alexa Whitman '22 Ashley Abboud '22
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	3	8	2	2	15	James Kopack '24 Morgan Cashman '25
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	4	4	3	5	16	Turner Ryon '25 Natalie Shaw '23
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	6	1	4	8	19	Ryan Ehnot '22 Mitchell Hnatt '24
Toms River North	Mariners	5	7	7	1	20	Everett Botwinick '22 Lindsay Walsh '23
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	1	12	1	10	24	Colin Guerrera '22 Nicholas Cunha '23
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 4	10	10	5	3	28	Thomas Roeber '23 [1-4] Erick Shi '24 [1-2] Andrew Dinger '24 [3-4]
Biotechnology High School	Nerds	12	3	8	7	30	Benson Chiles '22 Ronan Downie '22
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	8	11	11	6	36	Will Kernan '23 Conor Greene '22
Ranney School	Panthers 2	7	6	15	11	39	Grace Bray '23 Alexandria Forrest '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	11	9	13	9	42	Noah Kuzloski '23 Kyle Lombardino '25
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	DNF	5	9	15	46	Jack Pentony '25 Nicholas Fatigate '24
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	14	15	10	14	53	Chloe Witt '23 No Show
Westfield High School	Blue Devils	15	14	12	12	53	Owen Carolan '22 Joey Mcdevitt '22
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	9	13	16	16	54	Ella Bilow '22 [1-2] Margaret Burns '27 [3-4] Sophia Galiano '26 [1-2] Sydney Gusmer '22 [3-4]
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	13	16	14	13	56	Mason Medolla '22 Zander Rudd '24

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	2	1	1	2	6	Bryce Vitiello '23 Luke Pennisi '24
Ranney School	Panthers 1	3	5	2	4	14	Jack Whitman '23 Tomas Mora '23
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	1	3	4	7	15	Andrew Chiles '23 Connor Feury '22
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	8	2	5	5	20	Kevin Brooksbank '23 Nora Ciak '23
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	4	8	3	6	21	Matt Mcintyre '24 Esteban Pedroza '23
Biotechnology High School	Nerds	5	11	6	1	23	Gabby Fontana '23 Aiden Welch '24
Toms River North	Mariners	10	4	7	3	24	Iliana Vasslides '23 Stephanie Maulshagen '23
Ranney School	Panthers 2	7	9	9	8	33	Anthony Abboud '25 [1-4] Sophia Behar '25 [1-2] Kieran Collins '25 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	9	7	8	12	36	Belle Placa '25 [1-4] Alex Klinov '22 [1-2] Natalie Shaw '23 [3-4]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	6	6	14	14	40	Allison Beisel '24 [1-2] Caroline Duffy '25 [3-4] Sydney Gusmer '22 [1-2] Ella Bilow '22 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 4	12	10	13	10	45	Sam Santos '25 [1-2] Greyson Colman '25 [3-4] John Flannery '23 [1-2] Ryan Mullholland '25 [3-4]
Westfield High School	Blue Devils	13	12	12	9	46	Seamus Carolan '25 [1-4] Kevin Halleran '23 [1-2] Liam Hiltwein '22 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	14	13	10	11	48	Erin Little '24 Noah Tallman '25
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	15	14	11	13	53	Alex Kraljic '23 [1-4] Dan Drennan '24 [1-2] Richard Mcgowan '25 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	11	15	15	15	56	Matthew Wilhelm '24 [1-4] Daniel Stephan '24 [1-2] Donald Johnston '25 [3-4]
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	16	DNS	16	16	65	Cameron Mattern '25 Charles Agnew '25

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.150+0.15

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Biotechnology High School Nerds	12	12	12	12
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	14	14	14	14
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	15	15	15	15
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	16	16	16	16
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4	17	17	17	17
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	18	18	18	18
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	19	19	19	19
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	20	20	20	20
Ranney School Panthers 1	1	1	1	1
Ranney School Panthers 2	2	2	2	2
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	4	4	4	4
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	6	6	6	6
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	11	11	11	11
Toms River North Mariners	7	7	7	7
Trinity Hall Monarchs	8	8	8	8
Westfield High School Blue Devils	9	9	9	9

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Biotechnology High School Nerds	12	12	12	12
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	14	14	14	14
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	15	15	15	15
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	16	16	16	16
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4	17	17	17	17
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	18	18	18	18
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	19	19	19	19
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	20	20	20	20
Ranney School Panthers 1	1	1	1	1
Ranney School Panthers 2	2	2	2	2
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	4	4	4	4
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	6	6	6	6
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	11	11	11	11
Toms River North Mariners	7	7	7	7
Trinity Hall Monarchs	8	8	8	8
Westfield High School Blue Devils	9	9	9	9

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Biotechnology High School	Benson Chiles '22	Ronan Downie '22
Nerds	Gabby Fontana '23	Aiden Welch '24
Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Ehnot '22	Mitchell Hnatt '24
Colts 1	Bryce Vitiello '23	Luke Pennisi '24
Christian Brothers Academy	Colin Guerrera '22	Nicholas Cunha '23
Colts 2	Andrew Chiles '23	Connor Feury '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Noah Kuzloski '23	Kyle Lombardino '25
Colts 3	Matthew Wilhelm '24 [1-4]	Daniel Stephan '24 [1-2] Donald Johnston '25 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Thomas Roeber '23 [1-4]	Erick Shi '24 [1-2] Andrew Dinger '24 [3-4]
Colts 4	Sam Santos '25 [1-2] Greyson Colman '25 [3-4]	John Flannery '23 [1-2] Ryan Mullholland '25 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	James Kopack '24	Morgan Cashman '25
Griffins 1	Kevin Brooksbank '23	Nora Ciak '23
Donovan Catholic High School	Jack Pentony '25	Nicholas Fatigate '24
Griffins 2	Alex Kraljic '23 [1-4]	Dan Drennan '24 [1-2] Richard Mcgowan '25 [3-4]
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Will Kernan '23	Conor Greene '22
Rangers	Matt Mcintyre '24	Esteban Pedroza '23
Ranney School	Alexa Whitman '22	Ashley Abboud '22
Panthers 1	Jack Whitman '23	Tomas Mora '23
Ranney School	Grace Bray '23	Alexandria Forrest '22
Panthers 2	Anthony Abboud '25 [1-4]	Sophia Behar '25 [1-2] Kieran Collins '25 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Turner Ryon '25	Natalie Shaw '23
Rams 1	Belle Placa '25 [1-4]	Alex Klinov '22 [1-2] Natalie Shaw '23 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Chloe Witt '23	No Show
Rams 2	Erin Little '24	Noah Tallman '25
St. Augustine Prep School	Mason Medolla '22	Zander Rudd '24
Hermits	Cameron Mattern '25	Charles Agnew '25
Toms River North	Everett Botwinick '22	Lindsay Walsh '23
Mariners	Iliana Vasslides '23	Stephanie Maulshagen '23
Trinity Hall	Ella Bilow '22 [1-2] Margaret Burns '27 [3-4]	Sophia Galiano '26 [1-2] Sydney Gusmer '22 [3-4]
Monarchs	Allison Beisel '24 [1-2] Caroline Duffy '25 [3-4]	Sydney Gusmer '22 [1-2] Ella Bilow '22 [3-4]
Westfield High School	Owen Carolan '22	Joey Mcdevitt '22
Blue Devils	Seamus Carolan '25 [1-4]	Kevin Halleran '23 [1-2] Liam Hiltwein '22 [3-4]

Conditions — 09/29/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 47% · Pressure 1015.5 hPa

Temperature

64°F

↑ 70°F ↓ 55°F

Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.7 kn

avg · max 9.2 kn

Gusts to 22.4 kn

From NNW (341°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover25% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1015.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Christian Brothers: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.07

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.07 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christian Brothers by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Christian Brothers, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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