NJISA 2021 Fall Series 6

HostChristian Brothers
Date10/20/2021
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	17	6	23
2	Toms River North	Mariners	11	15	26
3	Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	16	16	32
4	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	5	28	33
5	Biotechnology High School	Nerds	28	9	37
6	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	30	37	67
7	Ranney School	Panthers 1	37	33	70
8	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	39	33	72
9	Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	35	39	74
10	Ranney School	Panthers 2	37	40	77
11	Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	30	55	85
12	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	52	33	85
13	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	54	35	89
14	Chatham High School	Cougars	44	55	99
15	Westfield High School	Blue Devils	54	51	105
16	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	58	60	118

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	1	1	1	2	5	Colin Guerrera '22 Kyle Lombardino '25
Toms River North	Mariners	5	2	3	1	11	Everett Botwinick '22 Lindsay Walsh '23
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	2	5	2	7	16	Turner Ryon '25 Natalie Shaw '23
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	4	3	4	6	17	James Kopack '24 Richard Mcgowan '25
Biotechnology High School	Nerds	9	4	6	9	28	Benson Chiles '22 Ronan Downie '22
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	3	14	8	5	30	Kennedy Laureigh '22 No Show
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	8	8	11	3	30	Jack Pentony '25 [1-4] Nicholas Fatigate '24 [1-2] Dan Drennan '24 [3-4]
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	7	6	12	10	35	No Show No Show
Ranney School	Panthers 1	14	10	5	8	37	No Show No Show
Ranney School	Panthers 2	DNS	9	7	4	37	No Show No Show
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	6	7	14	12	39	Thomas Roeber '23 [1-4] Connor Feury '22 [1-2] Daniel Stephan '24 [3-4]
Chatham High School	Cougars	12	12	9	11	44	Jamie Lynch '23 Jonathan Field '22
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	10	11	16	15	52	Ella Bilow '22 [1-2] Margaret Burns '27 [3-4] Mackenzie Boles '27 [1-2] Sophia Galiano '26 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	13	15	13	13	54	Matthew Wilhelm '24 [1-4] Erick Shi '24 [1-2] Alexander Escobar '25 [3-4]
Westfield High School	Blue Devils	DNS	13	10	14	54	Owen Carolan '22 [1-4] Kevin Halleran '23 [1-2] Liam Hiltwein '22 [3-4]
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	11	16	15	16	58	No Show No Show

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	1	1	3	1	6	Kevin Brooksbank '23 Nora Ciak '23
Biotechnology High School	Nerds	2	3	1	3	9	Gabby Fontana '23 Aiden Welch '24
Toms River North	Mariners	6	5	2	2	15	Iliana Vasslides '23 [1-4] Stephanie Maulshagen '23 [1-2] Scott Tedeschi '25 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	3	4	4	5	16	Belle Placa '25 No Show
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	7	7	5	9	28	Andrew Chiles '23 Nicholas Cunha '23
Ranney School	Panthers 1	4	2	16	11	33	No Show No Show
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	5	6	10	12	33	Allison Beisel '24 [1-2] Caroline Duffy '25 [3-4] Sydney Gusmer '22 [1-2] Alex Dacosta '24 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	8	9	8	8	33	Luke Pennisi '24 [1-4] Andrew Dinger '24 [1-2] Donald Johnston '25 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	11	8	9	7	35	Sam Santos '25 [1-2] Greyson Colman '25 [3-4] Ryan Mullholland '25 [1-2] Martin Horowitz '23 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	13	13	7	4	37	Alex Kraljic '23 Kaitlyn Di Dia '24
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	9	10	6	14	39	No Show No Show
Ranney School	Panthers 2	10	11	13	6	40	No Show No Show
Westfield High School	Blue Devils	12	12	12	15	51	Seamus Carolan '25 [1-4] Danny Mcdevitt '25 [1-2] Joey Mcdevitt '22 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	14	DNF	14	10	55	Erin Little '24 Noah Tallman '25
Chatham High School	Cougars	16	15	11	13	55	Grant Press '25 Cameron Francini '25
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	15	14	15	16	60	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.150+0.15

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Biotechnology High School Nerds	20	20	20	20
Chatham High School Cougars	19	19	19	19
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	18	18	18	18
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	17	17	17	17
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	16	16	16	16
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	15	15	15	15
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	14	14	14	14
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	12	12	12	12
Ranney School Panthers 1	11	11	11	11
Ranney School Panthers 2	10	10	10	10
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	8	8	8	8
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	7	7	7	7
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	6	6	6	6
Toms River North Mariners	5	5	5	5
Trinity Hall Monarchs	4	4	4	4
Westfield High School Blue Devils	2	2	2	2

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Biotechnology High School Nerds	20	20	20	20
Chatham High School Cougars	19	19	19	19
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	18	18	18	18
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	17	17	17	17
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	16	16	16	16
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	15	15	15	15
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	14	14	14	14
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	12	12	12	12
Ranney School Panthers 1	11	11	11	11
Ranney School Panthers 2	10	10	10	10
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	8	8	8	8
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	7	7	7	7
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	6	6	6	6
Toms River North Mariners	5	5	5	5
Trinity Hall Monarchs	4	4	4	4
Westfield High School Blue Devils	2	2	2	2

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Biotechnology High School	Benson Chiles '22	Ronan Downie '22
Nerds	Gabby Fontana '23	Aiden Welch '24
Chatham High School	Jamie Lynch '23	Jonathan Field '22
Cougars	Grant Press '25	Cameron Francini '25
Christian Brothers Academy	Colin Guerrera '22	Kyle Lombardino '25
Colts 1	Andrew Chiles '23	Nicholas Cunha '23
Christian Brothers Academy	Thomas Roeber '23 [1-4]	Connor Feury '22 [1-2] Daniel Stephan '24 [3-4]
Colts 2	Luke Pennisi '24 [1-4]	Andrew Dinger '24 [1-2] Donald Johnston '25 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Matthew Wilhelm '24 [1-4]	Erick Shi '24 [1-2] Alexander Escobar '25 [3-4]
Colts 3	Sam Santos '25 [1-2] Greyson Colman '25 [3-4]	Ryan Mullholland '25 [1-2] Martin Horowitz '23 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	James Kopack '24	Richard Mcgowan '25
Griffins 1	Kevin Brooksbank '23	Nora Ciak '23
Donovan Catholic High School	Jack Pentony '25 [1-4]	Nicholas Fatigate '24 [1-2] Dan Drennan '24 [3-4]
Griffins 2	Alex Kraljic '23	Kaitlyn Di Dia '24
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	No Show	No Show
Rangers	No Show	No Show
Ranney School	No Show	No Show
Panthers 1	No Show	No Show
Ranney School	No Show	No Show
Panthers 2	No Show	No Show
Southern Regional High School	Turner Ryon '25	Natalie Shaw '23
Rams 1	Belle Placa '25	No Show
Southern Regional High School	Kennedy Laureigh '22	No Show
Rams 2	Erin Little '24	Noah Tallman '25
St. Augustine Prep School	No Show	No Show
Hermits	No Show	No Show
Toms River North	Everett Botwinick '22	Lindsay Walsh '23
Mariners	Iliana Vasslides '23 [1-4]	Stephanie Maulshagen '23 [1-2] Scott Tedeschi '25 [3-4]
Trinity Hall	Ella Bilow '22 [1-2] Margaret Burns '27 [3-4]	Mackenzie Boles '27 [1-2] Sophia Galiano '26 [3-4]
Monarchs	Allison Beisel '24 [1-2] Caroline Duffy '25 [3-4]	Sydney Gusmer '22 [1-2] Alex Dacosta '24 [3-4]
Westfield High School	Owen Carolan '22 [1-4]	Kevin Halleran '23 [1-2] Liam Hiltwein '22 [3-4]
Blue Devils	Seamus Carolan '25 [1-4]	Danny Mcdevitt '25 [1-2] Joey Mcdevitt '22 [3-4]

Conditions — 10/20/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 52% · Pressure 1016.7 hPa

Temperature

69°F

↑ 76°F ↓ 57°F

Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.8 kn

avg · max 8.0 kn

Gusts to 18.3 kn

From W (273°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover19% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1016.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Christian Brothers: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.05

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.16 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christian Brothers by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Christian Brothers, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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