SAISA Cressy Qualifier Radial

HostShorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg
Date09/25/2021
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Jack Redmond '22	30
2	Ransom Everglades School	Jackson Mcaliley '23	31
3	Sarasota Military Academy	Sebastian Spinelli-Sax '23	34
4	The Pine School	Peter Foley '22	34
5	Cape Fear Academy	Benjamin Smith '22	43
6	St. Petersburg High School	Dorothy Mendelblatt '24	50
7	St. Petersburg High School	Bella Shakespeare '23	78
8	Sagemont School	Valerio Cassanmagnago '23	79
9	William T. Dwyer High School	Jake Homberger '27	79
10	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Kaitlyn Hamilton '22	80
11	Ransom Everglades School	Sebastian Van De Kreeke '25	84
12	The Pine School	Audrey Foley '24	86
13	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Kevin Gosselin '23	90
14	Belen Jesuit Preparatory School	Nico Garcia-Castrillon '22	94
15	John Paul II (SC)	Thomas Mazzeo '22	102
16	Miami Beach Senior High School	Spencer Dominguez '23	107
17	Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bridget Monahan '22	122
18	Ransom Everglades School	Olivia Drulard '23	122
19	Lake Highland Preparatory School	Jack Carter '23	122
20	Antilles School	Robert Richards '25	126
21	Sarasota High School	Sophia Woodbury '24	130
22	Immaculata La Salle High School	Umi Noritake '24	131
23	St. Petersburg High School	Sidney Moyer '23	134
24	Canterbury School of Florida	Callen Burnett '25	137
25	Hilton Head High School	Wyatt Norman '25	137
26	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Kate Danielson '24	138
27	Clearwater Central Catholic High School	Jan Mistak '25	140
28	Berkeley High School (SC)	Will Rucker '24	149
29	Hilton Head High School	Hilton Head 4	152
30	MAST Academy	Martin Barrera '24	167
31	Antilles School	Alejo Diblasi '25	168
32	Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Mary Katherine Monahan '24	173
33	Tampa Christian Community School	Preston Weaver '23	180
34	Hilton Head High School	Noah Clark '23	180
35	Calvary Christian Academy	Sophia Debs '24	186
36	Hilton Head High School	Isabel Thurlough '23	192
37	Tampa Christian Community School	Peyton Weaver '25	205
38	Robinson High School	Milo King '29	214
39	Carrollwood Day School	Claire Miller '22	216
40	H. B. Plant High School	Lee Jackson '25	234
41	Ransom Everglades School	Boris Bialer '22	240
42	Sarasota High School	Samantha Jones '25	242
43	Episcopal School of Jacksonville	Scott Busey '23	243
44	Sarasota Military Academy	Ayla Edwards '23	260

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Jack Redmond '22	2	19	1	1	3	4	30
Ransom Everglades School	Jackson Mcaliley '23	3	1	2	16	7	2	31
Sarasota Military Academy	Sebastian Spinelli-Sax '23	4	2	3	6	9	10	34
The Pine School	Peter Foley '22	5	6	5	10	2	6	34
Cape Fear Academy	Benjamin Smith '22	11	12	4	3	5	8	43
St. Petersburg High School	Dorothy Mendelblatt '24	1	9	12	8	8	12	50
St. Petersburg High School	Bella Shakespeare '23	10	25	10	9	11	13	78
Sagemont School	Valerio Cassanmagnago '23	12	5	DNF	15	1	1	79
William T. Dwyer High School	Jake Homberger '27	18	4	8	19	27	3	79
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Kaitlyn Hamilton '22	29	3	17	7	13	11	80
Ransom Everglades School	Sebastian Van De Kreeke '25	17	13	7	4	12	31	84
The Pine School	Audrey Foley '24	27	20	14	2	6	17	86
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Kevin Gosselin '23	19	26	15	11	4	15	90
Belen Jesuit Preparatory School	Nico Garcia-Castrillon '22	8	16	9	29	25	7	94
John Paul II (SC)	Thomas Mazzeo '22	21	15	19	14	19	14	102
Miami Beach Senior High School	Spencer Dominguez '23	7	21	20	26	14	19	107
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bridget Monahan '22	6	34	22	18	24	18	122
Ransom Everglades School	Olivia Drulard '23	16	29	6	20	30	21	122
Lake Highland Preparatory School	Jack Carter '23	25	23	13	12	20	29	122
Antilles School	Robert Richards '25	30	14	11	17	22	32	126
Sarasota High School	Sophia Woodbury '24	13	36	32	5	28	16	130
Immaculata La Salle High School	Umi Noritake '24	15	18	33	32	10	23	131
St. Petersburg High School	Sidney Moyer '23	9	8	16	31	36	34	134
Canterbury School of Florida	Callen Burnett '25	20	11	18	24	31	33	137
Hilton Head High School	Wyatt Norman '25	26	33	27	28	18	5	137
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Kate Danielson '24	23	17	21	41	16	20	138
Clearwater Central Catholic High School	Jan Mistak '25	22	10	30	30	26	22	140
Berkeley High School (SC)	Will Rucker '24	32	37	35	21	15	9	149
Hilton Head High School	Hilton Head 4	34	32	28	13	21	24	152
MAST Academy	Martin Barrera '24	14	28	34	27	29	35	167
Antilles School	Alejo Diblasi '25	37	35	26	22	23	25	168
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Mary Katherine Monahan '24	43	40	24	23	17	26	173
Tampa Christian Community School	Preston Weaver '23	24	30	25	42	32	27	180
Hilton Head High School	Noah Clark '23	39	7	29	34	34	37	180
Calvary Christian Academy	Sophia Debs '24	36	27	23	35	37	28	186
Hilton Head High School	Isabel Thurlough '23	28	39	31	25	39	30	192
Tampa Christian Community School	Peyton Weaver '25	31	24	41	36	35	38	205
Robinson High School	Milo King '29	33	31	38	38	38	36	214
Carrollwood Day School	Claire Miller '22	38	22	37	39	40	40	216
H. B. Plant High School	Lee Jackson '25	40	38	39	43	33	41	234
Ransom Everglades School	Boris Bialer '22	41	42	36	37	42	42	240
Sarasota High School	Samantha Jones '25	42	43	42	33	43	39	242
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	Scott Busey '23	35	41	40	40	44	43	243
Sarasota Military Academy	Ayla Edwards '23	44	44	43	44	41	44	260

Boat Speed Analyzer

Division A

	Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
	Hilton Head High School Hilton Head 4	8454	8454	8454	8454	8454	8454

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 44 boats · 6 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Jack Redmond '22	St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 3	6/6	2.84	4.66	+1.82	96th → 99th	5.4	3%	5.0 / 16.5
2	Jackson Mcaliley '23	Ransom Everglades School Raiders 3	6/6	3.09	4.72	+1.62	99th → 99th	4.5	2%	5.2 / 14.6
3	Peter Foley '22	The Pine School Knights 2	6/6	2.70	4.66	+1.96	95th → 99th	6.2	2%	5.7 / 17.1
3	Sebastian Spinelli-Sax '23	Sarasota Military Academy Eagles 2	6/6	2.15^u	4.66	+2.51	85th → 99th	9.3	1%	5.7 / 20.7
5	Benjamin Smith '22	Cape Fear Academy	6/6	2.88	4.24	+1.36	97th → 99th	3.4	4%	7.2 / 15.9
6	Dorothy Mendelblatt '24	St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 1	6/6	1.91	4.02	+2.11	82nd → 99th	7.2	2%	8.3 / 22.1
7	Bella Shakespeare '23	St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 3	6/6	1.64	3.24	+1.60	76th → 99th	4.6	8%	13.0 / 23.9
8	Jake Homberger '27	William T. Dwyer High School	6/6	2.92	3.08	+0.16	98th → 99th	0.1	36%	13.2 / 15.8
8	Valerio Cassanmagnago '23	Sagemont School	6/6	1.37^u	4.32	+2.94	68th → 99th	10.0	5%	13.2 / 25.6
10	Kaitlyn Hamilton '22	St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 2	6/6	2.30	3.05	+0.75	88th → 99th	1.2	16%	13.3 / 19.6
11	Sebastian Van De Kreeke '25	Ransom Everglades School Raiders 4	6/6	2.12	2.93	+0.81	84th → 98th	1.4	19%	14.0 / 20.8
12	Audrey Foley '24	The Pine School Knights 1	6/6	1.70	2.98	+1.28	78th → 98th	3.2	7%	14.3 / 23.7
13	Kevin Gosselin '23	St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 1	6/6	1.57	2.97	+1.40	74th → 98th	3.7	12%	15.0 / 24.3
14	Nico Garcia-Castrillon '22	Belen Jesuit Preparatory School	6/6	1.37^u	2.84	+1.46	68th → 96th	4.0	10%	15.7 / 25.5
15	Thomas Mazzeo '22	John Paul II (SC)	6/6	1.62	2.85	+1.23	75th → 96th	3.0	18%	17.0 / 24.0
16	Spencer Dominguez '23	Miami Beach Senior High School	6/6	2.83	2.65	−0.18	96th → 94th	0.1	65%	17.8 / 16.1
17	Bridget Monahan '22	Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 1	6/6	2.24	2.34	+0.09	87th → 89th	0.0	56%	20.3 / 19.8
17	Jack Carter '23	Lake Highland Preparatory School	6/6	1.54	2.41	+0.88	74th → 91st	1.6	27%	20.3 / 24.5
17	Olivia Drulard '23	Ransom Everglades School Raiders 2	6/6	2.67	2.34	−0.33	94th → 89th	0.3	69%	20.3 / 17.3
20	Robert Richards '25	Antilles School Hurricanes 2	6/6	2.16	2.25	+0.09	85th → 87th	0.0	55%	21.0 / 20.6
21	Sophia Woodbury '24	Sarasota High School Sailors 2	6/6	1.95	2.07	+0.12	82nd → 84th	0.0	51%	21.7 / 21.7
22	Umi Noritake '24	Immaculata La Salle High School	6/6	2.36	2.12	−0.24	89th → 84th	0.2	67%	21.8 / 19.2
23	Sidney Moyer '23	St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 2	6/6	2.37	1.83	−0.54	89th → 81st	0.9	70%	22.3 / 19.2
24	Callen Burnett '25	Canterbury School of Florida	6/6	2.54	2.06	−0.48	92nd → 83rd	0.7	81%	22.8 / 18.0
24	Wyatt Norman '25	Hilton Head High School Hilton Head 2	6/6	1.32^u	2.12	+0.80	67th → 84th	1.4	34%	22.8 / 25.7
26	Kate Danielson '24	Shorecrest Preparatory School	6/6	2.06	1.76	−0.30	84th → 79th	0.2	61%	23.0 / 21.3
27	Jan Mistak '25	Clearwater Central Catholic High School	6/6	2.59	2.08	−0.52	93rd → 84th	0.8	78%	23.3 / 17.9
28	Will Rucker '24	Berkeley High School (SC)	6/6	3.17	1.61	−1.56	99th → 75th	9.1	96%	24.8 / 14.2
30	Martin Barrera '24	MAST Academy	6/6	1.62	1.66	+0.04	76th → 77th	0.0	69%	27.8 / 24.0
31	Alejo Diblasi '25	Antilles School Hurricanes 1	6/6	2.14	1.62	−0.51	85th → 76th	0.8	83%	28.0 / 20.5
32	Mary Katherine Monahan '24	Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 2	6/6	1.66	1.00	−0.66	77th → 58th	1.2	76%	28.8 / 23.6
33	Noah Clark '23	Hilton Head High School Hilton Head 1	6/6	1.20^u	1.22	+0.02	65th → 65th	0.0	67%	30.0 / 26.7
33	Preston Weaver '23	Tampa Christian Community School Tampa Christian Comm 2	6/6	1.63^u	1.28	−0.35	76th → 66th	0.3	79%	30.0 / 23.9
35	Sophia Debs '24	Calvary Christian Academy	6/6	1.15	1.35	+0.20	63rd → 68th	0.1	70%	31.0 / 26.9
36	Isabel Thurlough '23	Hilton Head High School Hilton Head 3	6/6	1.20^u	1.22	+0.02	65th → 65th	0.0	76%	32.0 / 26.4
37	Peyton Weaver '25	Tampa Christian Community School Tampa Christian Comm 1	6/6	1.13^u	0.81	−0.32	62nd → 51st	0.3	84%	34.2 / 26.9
38	Milo King '29	Robinson High School	6/6	1.14^u	0.88	−0.25	62nd → 53rd	0.2	88%	35.7 / 27.2
39	Claire Miller '22	Carrollwood Day School	6/6	0.54	0.68	+0.14	40th → 45th	0.0	78%	36.0 / 30.4
40	Lee Jackson '25	H. B. Plant High School	6/6	1.01^u	0.31	−0.70	58th → 31st	1.4	96%	39.0 / 27.7
41	Boris Bialer '22	Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1	6/6	1.31	0.08	−1.23	67th → 24th	5.1	99%	40.0 / 26.0
42	Samantha Jones '25	Sarasota High School Sailors 1	6/6	0.42	-0.10	−0.51	34th → 19th	0.7	94%	40.3 / 31.0
43	Scott Busey '23	Episcopal School of Jacksonville	6/6	0.63	-0.25	−0.88	43rd → 15th	2.0	95%	40.5 / 30.3
44	Ayla Edwards '23	Sarasota Military Academy Eagles 1	6/6	0.63^u	-2.78	−3.41	43rd → 1st	14.2	>99%	43.3 / 29.8

Conditions — 09/25/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 71% · Pressure 1016.0 hPa

Temperature

83°F

↑ 87°F ↓ 77°F

Feels like 92°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.2 kn

avg · max 6.7 kn

Gusts to 13.0 kn

From NE (51°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover19% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1016.0 hPa Rain0.03 in

What this breeze does at Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Shorecrest Prep/St. Petersburg, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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