Sea Otter 2024 - SILVER

HostMonterey/Pacific Grove
Date10/12/2024
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#		School	Team	A	B	TOT
1		Stevenson School	Pirates 1	33	52	85
2		SF University High School	Red Devils	84	46	130
3		Laguna Blanca School	Varsity	88	51	139
4		Alameda High School	Hornets	51	94	145
5		The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	80	85	165
6		St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	59	112	171
7		Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans	76	106	182
8		Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	122	61	183
9		Parker	Parker	87	100	187
10		Urban School of San Francisco	Blues	31	162	193
11		Brophy College Preparatory	Brophy	135	64	199
12		Pacific Grove High School	Breakers	127	89	216
13		Design Tech High School	Dragons 1	158	58	216
14		Carlmont	The Scots	102	120	222
15		Loyola High School (CA)	Cubs	124 MRP	102 MRP	226 MRP
16		Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	144	88	232
17		Archbishop Riordan	Crusaders	133	117	250
18		San Domenico High School	Panthers	98	157	255
19		Design Tech High School	Dragons 2	120 MRP	161 MRP	281 MRP
20		Stevenson School	Pirates 2	150	139	289
21	$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Dragons	119	183	302
22		Monterey High School	Toreadores	173	130	303
23		St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco	Wildcats	194	115	309
24		Carmel High School	Padres	123	192	315
25		The International School of San Francisco	Jaguars	174	151	325
26		Encinal High School	Jets	158	175	333
27		Crystal Springs Uplands School	Griffins	152	196	348
28		Redondo Union High School	Sea Hawks	167	194	361

	School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
	Urban School of San Francisco	Blues	1	12	1	1	7	1	7	1	31	Henry Scalise '26 [1-8] Adabella London '28 [1-2, 5-6] Dakota Burns '28 [3-4, 7-8]
	Stevenson School	Pirates 1	2	7	4	BKD	5	3	1	7	33	Liah Yamamura '26 Claire Lee '26
	Alameda High School	Hornets	4	11	5	4	2	16	6	3	51	Chase Carson '25 Sabine Lee '25
	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	3	2	2	3	17	4	8	20	59	Melina Ahrens '27 [1-8] Ella Schwartz '27 [1-4] Tyrus Hall '28 [5-8]
	Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans	9	21	6	5	8	6	11	10	76	Mark Novak '28 Arlo Willcox '31
	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	12	10	8	2	14	11	4	19	80	Milo Sperry '25 [1-8] Asher Ellis '27 [1-2, 5-6] Wilder Harlow '27 [3-4, 7-8]
	SF University High School	Red Devils	15	18	10	9	20	5	2	5	84	James Franzone '27 [1-8] Andrew James '25 [1-4] Reeve Char '27 [5-8]
	Parker	Parker	6	1	21	OCS	1	2	13	14	87	Caeden Nodurft '25 Mia Turner '27
	Laguna Blanca School	Varsity	8	4	14	11	15	10	15	11	88	Jack Grube '26 Robie Polos '26
	San Domenico High School	Panthers	7	14	23	13	21	7	9	4	98	Praire Press '26 Willem Morrow '27
	Carlmont	The Scots	16	6	3	7	23	17	22	8	102	Carter Newhauser '28 Lily Stutzin '26
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Dragons	26	9	9	21	10	9	23	12	119	Abigail Fenholt '28 Elijah Soussan '26
	Design Tech High School	Dragons 2	10	13	16	26	3	12	5	15	120 MRP	Tibet Saldamli '28 Arushi Lee '28
	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	18	20	BKD	BKD	13	13	12	16	122	Lila Rodet '27 [1-4, 7-8] Jesse Rushing '28 [5-6] Jesse Rushing '28 [1-2, 7-8] Owen Alper '26 [3-4] Cecilia De La Torre '26 [5-6]
	Carmel High School	Padres	14	8	13	15	26	22	3	22	123	June Emerson '28 [1-4] Lyric Gomez '28 [5-8] River Mello '28 [1-4]
	Loyola High School (CA)	Cubs	13	19	17	10	18	15	10	2	124 MRP	Luke Ondrey '25 Aiden Chang '27
	Pacific Grove High School	Breakers	21	5	18	14	9	14	18	28	127	Edward Shelton '27 [1-8] Milo Bingham '27 [1-2, 5-6] James Archer '27 [3-4, 7-8]
	Archbishop Riordan	Crusaders	20	25	15	6	6	26	DSQ	6	133	Nolan Balocki '27 [1-8] Paige Walsh '27 [1-2, 5-6] Kaia Burris '27 [3-4, 7-8]
	Brophy College Preparatory	Brophy	11	16	25	8	22	18	17	18	135	Weston Walker '25 Kilian Walker '28
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	19	17	19	18	4	20	24	23	144	Dersen Eddowes '24 Ransom Anderson '28
	Stevenson School	Pirates 2	5	15	11	25	27	25	21	21	150	Nate Burgstone '28 Marc Cheung '28
	Crystal Springs Uplands School	Griffins	28	24	12	20	16	23	20	9	152	Luke Wells '27 Sofia Dias '28
	Design Tech High School	Dragons 1	23	23	24	16	12	21	14	25	158	Will Kizer '25 Sam Cheng '25
	Encinal High School	Jets	27	26	26	17	11	8	16	27	158	Cyrus Estilaei '27 [1-8] Lucie Harriet '29 [1-2, 5-8] Jack Sheets '28 [3-4]
	Redondo Union High School	Sea Hawks	24	22	7	22	25	24	19	24	167	Alden Snyder '27 Meliah Medeiros '28
	Monterey High School	Toreadores	17	28	20	24	19	27	25	13	173	Rosemary Savukinas '28 [1-8] Matthew Hollins '28 [1-4] Ella Myers '25 [5-8]
	The International School of San Francisco	Jaguars	22	3	22	27	24	28	BKD	26	174	Theo Li '25 [1-8] Flora Ebringer '27 [1-2, 5-6] Ary Clark De Castilho '25 [3-4, 7-8]
	St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco	Wildcats	25	27	27	23	RAF	19	27	17	194	Alex Shum '27 [1-8] Dimitri Dimitrov '27 [1-2, 5-6] Jack Laipply '27 [3-4, 7-8]

	School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
	SF University High School	Red Devils	3	1	8	1	6	8	5	14	46	Alice Newmeyer '25 Chloe Eenmaa '28
	Laguna Blanca School	Varsity	5	2	5	3	3	OCS	2	2	51	Emma Edwards '28 Savannah Zollett '29
	Stevenson School	Pirates 1	1	15	10	4	2	10	4	6	52	Patrick O'Hara '27 Dillan Spence '27
	Design Tech High School	Dragons 1	6	6	4	7	24	1	9	1	58	Skye Crawford '25 John Nix '25
	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	8	3	6	12	4	9	16	3	61	Cullen Rushing '28 Penelope Kershaw '26
	Brophy College Preparatory	Brophy	2	11	3	10	11	3	13	11	64	Teague Walker '26 Lukas Villela '25
	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	15	12	18	5	8	11	7	9	85	Nola Jesenko '26 Lelio Maurillo '25
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	17	19	7	17	17	6	1	4	88	Julia Musial '26 Lada Nosar '26
	Pacific Grove High School	Breakers	7	13	16	2	5	2	20	24	89	Kieran Sherlock '25 Tyra Liljegard '25
	Alameda High School	Hornets	18	4	17	11	20	14	3	7	94	Logan Schwimmer '26 Charles Maxey '25
	Parker	Parker	4	8	14	9	27	16	10	12	100	Dominic Ciccimaro '25 Fia Cattaneo '27
	Loyola High School (CA)	Cubs	21	7	11	8	1	18	11	5	102 MRP	Declan Mcmahon '27 Gus Drynan '27
	Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans	9	22	1	22	OCS	5	8	10	106	Bosco Zhang '25 David Hervy '25
	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	12	10	12	13	10	15	23	17	112	Amanda Wheeler '25 Reuben Butt '27
	St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco	Wildcats	11	18	15	6	9	23	15	18	115	Donovan Shinn '26 [1-8] Lauren Yu '27 [1-2, 5-6] Lucas Shum '28 [3-4, 7-8]
	Archbishop Riordan	Crusaders	14	9	20	18	12	4	19	21	117	Eva Bennett '25 Elizabeth Walsh '26
	Carlmont	The Scots	10	17	13	15	14	17	12	22	120	Petra Bender '29 Emerson Elliott '27
	Monterey High School	Toreadores	20	20	2	25	13	7	18	25	130	Andrew Tschanz '25 [1, 3, 5-6] Elora Shester '28 [2, 4, 7-8] Elora Shester '28 [1, 3] Andrew Tschanz '25 [2, 4] Matthew Hollins '28 [5-8]
	Stevenson School	Pirates 2	13	14	19	14	26	20	17	16	139	Tommy O'Hara '29 Ryan Ferguson '28
	The International School of San Francisco	Jaguars	19	21	27	23	7	13	26	15	151	Lusia Foster '26 [1-8] Katharine Mackenzie '27 [1-2, 5-6] Andre Lintner-Calvo '25 [3-4, 7-8]
	San Domenico High School	Panthers	16	16	21	26	22	12	21	23	157	Django Press '28 Zach Mar-Elia '27
	Design Tech High School	Dragons 2	22	24	9	19	21	27	6	13	161 MRP	Lorelai Hartman '25 [1-2, 5-8] Mason Mchale '27 [3-4] Avery Brottem '28 [1-2, 5-8]
	Urban School of San Francisco	Blues	24	26	22	21	15	24	22	8	162	Azia Winn '29 Maya Youssef '28
	Encinal High School	Jets	23	5	26	16	25	25	28	27	175	Grace Harriet '27 [1-8] Ava Estilaei '27 [1-6] Jack Sheets '28 [7-8]
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Dragons	DNS	DNS	23	20	18	21	24	19	183	Ishaan Peterson '28 Aabid Fitzgerald '26
	Carmel High School	Padres	25	23	25	24	23	19	27	26	192	Samuel Weaver '26 Liam Stafford '28
	Redondo Union High School	Sea Hawks	26	25	24	DNF	19	26	25	20	194	Dylhan Bajaj '28 Maya Cortez '28
	Crystal Springs Uplands School	Griffins	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	16	22	14	28	196	Dashel Tsang '27 Sofia Risso '26

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.150+0.15

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2024 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

	Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
	Alameda High School Hornets	64	64	62	62	60	60	58	58
	Archbishop Riordan Crusaders	63	63	36	36	38	38	40	40
	Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	62	62	60	60	58	58	56	56
	Brophy College Preparatory Brophy	61	61	63	63	36	36	38	38
	Carlmont The Scots	60	60	58	58	56	56	54	54
	Carmel High School Padres	59	59	61	61	63	63	36	36
	Crystal Springs Uplands School Griffins	58	58	56	56	54	54	52	52
	Design Tech High School Dragons 1	57	57	59	59	61	61	63	63
	Design Tech High School Dragons 2	56	56	54	54	52	52	49	49
	Encinal High School Jets	55	55	57	57	59	59	61	61
	Parker Parker	54	54	52	52	49	49	47	47
	Henry M. Gunn High School Titans	53	53	55	55	57	57	59	59
	The International School of San Francisco Jaguars	37	37	64	64	62	62	60	60
	Laguna Blanca School Varsity	52	52	49	49	47	47	45	45
	Loyola High School (CA) Cubs	51	51	53	53	55	55	57	57
	Monterey High School Toreadores	49	49	47	47	45	45	43	43
	Pacific Grove High School Breakers	48	48	51	51	53	53	55	55
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	47	47	45	45	43	43	41	41
	Redondo Union High School Sea Hawks	46	46	48	48	51	51	53	53
	San Domenico High School Panthers	44	44	46	46	48	48	51	51
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Dragons	43	43	41	41	39	39	37	37
	SF University High School Red Devils	45	45	43	43	41	41	39	39
	St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco Wildcats	42	42	44	44	46	46	48	48
	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA St Joseph Notre Dame	41	41	39	39	37	37	64	64
	Stevenson School Pirates 1	40	40	42	42	44	44	46	46
	Stevenson School Pirates 2	39	39	37	37	64	64	62	62
	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	38	38	40	40	42	42	44	44
	Urban School of San Francisco Blues	36	36	38	38	40	40	42	42

Division B

	Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
	Alameda High School Hornets	63	63	61	61	59	59	57	57
	Archbishop Riordan Crusaders	64	64	37	37	39	39	41	41
	Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	61	61	59	59	57	57	55	55
	Brophy College Preparatory Brophy	62	62	64	64	37	37	39	39
	Carlmont The Scots	59	59	57	57	55	55	53	53
	Carmel High School Padres	60	60	62	62	64	64	37	37
	Crystal Springs Uplands School Griffins	57	57	55	55	53	53	51	51
	Design Tech High School Dragons 1	58	58	60	60	62	62	64	64
	Design Tech High School Dragons 2	55	55	53	53	51	51	48	48
	Encinal High School Jets	56	56	58	58	60	60	62	62
	Parker Parker	53	53	51	51	48	48	46	46
	Henry M. Gunn High School Titans	54	54	56	56	58	58	60	60
	The International School of San Francisco Jaguars	36	36	63	63	61	61	59	59
	Laguna Blanca School Varsity	51	51	48	48	46	46	44	44
	Loyola High School (CA) Cubs	52	52	54	54	56	56	58	58
	Monterey High School Toreadores	48	48	46	46	44	44	42	42
	Pacific Grove High School Breakers	49	49	52	52	54	54	56	56
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	46	46	44	44	42	42	40	40
	Redondo Union High School Sea Hawks	47	47	49	49	52	52	54	54
	San Domenico High School Panthers	45	45	47	47	49	49	52	52
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Dragons	42	42	40	40	38	38	36	36
	SF University High School Red Devils	44	44	42	42	40	40	38	38
	St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco Wildcats	43	43	45	45	47	47	49	49
	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA St Joseph Notre Dame	40	40	38	38	36	36	63	63
	Stevenson School Pirates 1	41	41	43	43	45	45	47	47
	Stevenson School Pirates 2	38	38	36	36	63	63	61	61
	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	39	39	41	41	43	43	45	45
	Urban School of San Francisco Blues	37	37	39	39	41	41	43	43

	School / Team	Skipper	Crew
	Alameda High School	Chase Carson '25	Sabine Lee '25
	Hornets	Logan Schwimmer '26	Charles Maxey '25
	Archbishop Riordan	Nolan Balocki '27 [1-8]	Paige Walsh '27 [1-2, 5-6] Kaia Burris '27 [3-4, 7-8]
	Crusaders	Eva Bennett '25	Elizabeth Walsh '26
	Berkeley High School	Lila Rodet '27 [1-4, 7-8] Jesse Rushing '28 [5-6]	Jesse Rushing '28 [1-2, 7-8] Owen Alper '26 [3-4] Cecilia De La Torre '26 [5-6]
	Yellowjackets	Cullen Rushing '28	Penelope Kershaw '26
	Brophy College Preparatory	Weston Walker '25	Kilian Walker '28
	Brophy	Teague Walker '26	Lukas Villela '25
	Carlmont	Carter Newhauser '28	Lily Stutzin '26
	The Scots	Petra Bender '29	Emerson Elliott '27
	Carmel High School	June Emerson '28 [1-4] Lyric Gomez '28 [5-8]	River Mello '28 [1-4]
	Padres	Samuel Weaver '26	Liam Stafford '28
	Crystal Springs Uplands School	Luke Wells '27	Sofia Dias '28
	Griffins	Dashel Tsang '27	Sofia Risso '26
	Design Tech High School	Will Kizer '25	Sam Cheng '25
	Dragons 1	Skye Crawford '25	John Nix '25
	Design Tech High School	Tibet Saldamli '28	Arushi Lee '28
	Dragons 2	Lorelai Hartman '25 [1-2, 5-8] Mason Mchale '27 [3-4]	Avery Brottem '28 [1-2, 5-8]
	Encinal High School	Cyrus Estilaei '27 [1-8]	Lucie Harriet '29 [1-2, 5-8] Jack Sheets '28 [3-4]
	Jets	Grace Harriet '27 [1-8]	Ava Estilaei '27 [1-6] Jack Sheets '28 [7-8]
	Henry M. Gunn High School	Mark Novak '28	Arlo Willcox '31
	Titans	Bosco Zhang '25	David Hervy '25
	Laguna Blanca School	Jack Grube '26	Robie Polos '26
	Varsity	Emma Edwards '28	Savannah Zollett '29
	Loyola High School (CA)	Luke Ondrey '25	Aiden Chang '27
	Cubs	Declan Mcmahon '27	Gus Drynan '27
	Monterey High School	Rosemary Savukinas '28 [1-8]	Matthew Hollins '28 [1-4] Ella Myers '25 [5-8]
	Toreadores	Andrew Tschanz '25 [1, 3, 5-6] Elora Shester '28 [2, 4, 7-8]	Elora Shester '28 [1, 3] Andrew Tschanz '25 [2, 4] Matthew Hollins '28 [5-8]
	Pacific Grove High School	Edward Shelton '27 [1-8]	Milo Bingham '27 [1-2, 5-6] James Archer '27 [3-4, 7-8]
	Breakers	Kieran Sherlock '25	Tyra Liljegard '25
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Dersen Eddowes '24	Ransom Anderson '28
	Panthers	Julia Musial '26	Lada Nosar '26
	Parker	Caeden Nodurft '25	Mia Turner '27
	Parker	Dominic Ciccimaro '25	Fia Cattaneo '27
	Redondo Union High School	Alden Snyder '27	Meliah Medeiros '28
	Sea Hawks	Dylhan Bajaj '28	Maya Cortez '28
	SF University High School	James Franzone '27 [1-8]	Andrew James '25 [1-4] Reeve Char '27 [5-8]
	Red Devils	Alice Newmeyer '25	Chloe Eenmaa '28
	San Domenico High School	Praire Press '26	Willem Morrow '27
	Panthers	Django Press '28	Zach Mar-Elia '27
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Abigail Fenholt '28	Elijah Soussan '26
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Dragons	Ishaan Peterson '28	Aabid Fitzgerald '26
	St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco	Alex Shum '27 [1-8]	Dimitri Dimitrov '27 [1-2, 5-6] Jack Laipply '27 [3-4, 7-8]
	Wildcats	Donovan Shinn '26 [1-8]	Lauren Yu '27 [1-2, 5-6] Lucas Shum '28 [3-4, 7-8]
	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	Melina Ahrens '27 [1-8]	Ella Schwartz '27 [1-4] Tyrus Hall '28 [5-8]
	St Joseph Notre Dame	Amanda Wheeler '25	Reuben Butt '27
	Stevenson School	Liah Yamamura '26	Claire Lee '26
	Pirates 1	Patrick O'Hara '27	Dillan Spence '27
	Stevenson School	Nate Burgstone '28	Marc Cheung '28
	Pirates 2	Tommy O'Hara '29	Ryan Ferguson '28
	The Bay School of San Francisco	Milo Sperry '25 [1-8]	Asher Ellis '27 [1-2, 5-6] Wilder Harlow '27 [3-4, 7-8]
	Breakers	Nola Jesenko '26	Lelio Maurillo '25
	The International School of San Francisco	Theo Li '25 [1-8]	Flora Ebringer '27 [1-2, 5-6] Ary Clark De Castilho '25 [3-4, 7-8]
	Jaguars	Lusia Foster '26 [1-8]	Katharine Mackenzie '27 [1-2, 5-6] Andre Lintner-Calvo '25 [3-4, 7-8]
	Urban School of San Francisco	Henry Scalise '26 [1-8]	Adabella London '28 [1-2, 5-6] Dakota Burns '28 [3-4, 7-8]
	Blues	Azia Winn '29	Maya Youssef '28

Conditions — 10/12/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 79% · Pressure 1020.1 hPa

Temperature

66°F

↑ 70°F ↓ 60°F

Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.5 kn

avg · max 6.3 kn

Gusts to 16.7 kn

From NW (312°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover27% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1020.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn · NW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Monterey/Pacific Grove: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.12 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Monterey/Pacific Grove by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Monterey/Pacific Grove: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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