MDISA St. Marys Ryken Tier 2 Fleet

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 11 8 19
2 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 21 15 36
3 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 2 21 18 39
4 Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Battlin' Baron 24 20 44
5 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 20 24 44
6 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 1 19 35 54
7 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 27 31 58
8 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 37 29 66
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 1 6 2 1 1 11 Alex Julian '28
Vika Ferus '27
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 1 7 2 6 2 2 19 Robert David '28
Rory Campbell '27
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 3 3 1 6 7 20 Michael Groat '27 [1-5]
Bryeden Rapp '27 [1-3]
Tejas Suri '28 [4-5]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 4 7 3 3 4 21 Carson Zinkgraf '28 [1-3]
Brandon Hall '28 [4-5]
Logan Lahtinen '28 [1-3]
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 2 6 1 4 7 3 21 Tomas ... '26
Finn Fraser '28
Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Battlin' Baron 2 5 7 5 5 24 Matthew Sward '27 [1-3]
Callie Flesch '28 [4-5]
Ben Rashkin '28 [1-3]
Eton Smith '27 [4-5]
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 5 4 8 4 6 27 Joseph Dibonaventuro '26
Beau Sink '31
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 8 8 5 8 8 37 Ian Murphy '29
Zachary Marshall '30
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 2 1 1 1 3 8 Matthew Synoracki '28 [1-5]
Dylan Cook '29 [1-3]
Owen Henry '28 [4-5]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 3 3 2 2 5 15 Finn Erickson '29
Ellie Dorman '29
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 2 1 8 4 3 2 18 Julia Deaton '29 [1-5]
Jack Little '28 [1-3]
Charan Ghambir '29 [4-5]
Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Battlin' Baron 4 2 6 7 1 20 Ethan Snyder '27 [1-3]
Orly Pearlman '29 [4-5]
Ha An Do '28 [1-3]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 5 4 5 6 4 24 Alex Dusterwald '27
Georgia Mudd '26
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 6 6 3 8 6 29 Zachary Rudd '29
Mason Riley '28
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 7 5 8 4 7 31 Max Wingate '30
Annabelle Yurko '29
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 1 8 7 7 5 8 35 Charlie Larson '28
Kiera Seahawk '30
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (16 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers11144
Bethesda Chevy-Chase HSBethesda Chevy-Chase HS Battlin' Baron33366
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins44477
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders66688
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers7771010
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks 18881111
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks 210101011
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights11111133

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers33366
Bethesda Chevy-Chase HSBethesda Chevy-Chase HS Battlin' Baron44477
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins66688
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders7771010
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers8881111
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks 110101011
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks 211111133
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights11144

Conditions — 09/14/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1016.4 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
1.9 kn
avg  ·  max 4.2 kn
Gusts to 7.8 kn
From SSW (202°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover84% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1016.4 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 5 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Mary's Ryken: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.17 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.26
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.03 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's Ryken by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at St. Mary's Ryken, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →