South Points #6

HostVero Beach
Date02/29/2020
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	9	8	17
2	Immaculata La Salle High School	Royal Lions	34	11	45
3	Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	10	38	48
4	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	22	30	52
5	Sarasota High School	Sailors	39	23	62
6	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	27	41	68
7	Fort Myers High School	Green Wave	33	51	84
8	St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	52	36	88
9	South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	45	50	95
10	Westminster Christian School	Warriors	47	50	97
11	Manatee High School	Hurricanes	59 MRP	44 MRP	103 MRP
12	H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	72	40	112
13	Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	57	62	119
14	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Carrollton School	34	96	130
15	Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	63	75	138
16	Vero Beach High School	Vero Beach	78	64	142
17	MOA/Westwood High School	Panthers	77	84	161
18	Martin County High School	Tigers	93	75	168
19	Pine Crest School	Panthers	95	88	183

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	1	2	3	1	2	9	Lachlain Mc Granahan '20 Adam Kaplan '21
Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	2	1	RDG	2	3	10	Daniel Hughes '21 Chris Purcell '21
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	3	7	7	4	1	22	Connor Boland '21 [1-5] Sam Juskiewicz '20 [1-4] Isa Duplessis '20 [5]
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	9	3	6	5	4	27	Guthrie Braun '22 Thomas Cura '21
Fort Myers High School	Green Wave	10	5	1	10	7	33	Patrick Walke '21 Zachary Syska '22
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Carrollton School	4	11	5	3	11	34	Audrey Russler '26 [1-5] Natalia Freyre '23 [1-3, 5] Carolina Gaston '21 [4]
Immaculata La Salle High School	Royal Lions	5	6	RDG	RDG	5	34	Justin Callahan '22 [1-5] Antonio Miranda '20 [1-4] Isabela Martinez-Moure '20 [5]
Sarasota High School	Sailors	7	8	4	11	9	39	Will Murray '20 Kay Brumsvold '21
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	6	9	14	6	10	45	Emily Bornarth '20 Ryan Ince '21
Westminster Christian School	Warriors	8	13	8	12	6	47	Enzo Menditto '22 Joshua Pike '22
St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	13	10	12	9	8	52	Emma Shakespeare '20 [1-5] Hannah Marsicano '20 [1-2] Tyler Rogers '20 [3-5]
Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	RDG	RDG	9	8	14	57	Chloe Hudgins '20 Cole Degner '21
Manatee High School	Hurricanes	11	4	2	7	15	59 MRP	Bryce Tone '21 Matthew Mackin '21
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	14	12	10	15	12	63	Hilton Kamps '22 Aidan Deitrick '20
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	12	15	15	17	13	72	Garrett Brooks '22 [1-5] Emmy Digiacomo '20 [1-2, 5] Blake Wilson '20 [3-4]
MOA/Westwood High School	Panthers	15	16	16	14	16	77	Heriberto Lara-Mijares '20 Colin Flink '20
Vero Beach High School	Vero Beach	17	14	17	13	17	78	Mylee Smith '21 Katherine Bounassi '23
Martin County High School	Tigers	DNF	18	18	19	18	93	Kathryn Thorsen '21 Jennifer Donelon '22
Pine Crest School	Panthers	DNS	19	19	18	19	95	Sean Anagnoste '23 [1-5] Rachel Becker '23 [1-2] Daniel Wilentz '23 [3-5]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	1	3	1	2	1	8	Liam O'Keefe '21 [1-2, 5] Javier Garcon '21 [3-4] Louis La Fontisse '21 [1-2] Lucas Vianna '21 [3-4] Nicolas Echarte '21 [5]
Immaculata La Salle High School	Royal Lions	2	1	2	4	2	11	Mitchell Callahan '22 Brianna Ross '22
Sarasota High School	Sailors	5	2	5	6	5	23	Matthew King '20 Nick Powers '21
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	8	12	4	3	3	30	Libby Redmond '20 [1-5] Isa Duplessis '20 [1-2] Sophia St. Romain '22 [3-5]
St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	7	5	9	9	6	36	Emily Allen '21 Tommy Chase '20
Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	4	7	8	7	12	38	Kyle Bramson '20 [1-2] Cort Snyder '23 [3-5] Roberto Lugones '20 [1-2] Jonas Carvalho '23 [3-5]
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	6	14	3	10	7	40	Reid Nelson '23 [1-5] Spencer Brooks '20 [1-2] Elliot Francola '23 [3-5]
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	9	6	12	5	9	41	Heather Kerns '20 Zuri Patel '20
Manatee High School	Hurricanes	3	10	6	1	4	44 MRP	Nick Dewitt '22 Riley Baugh '20
Westminster Christian School	Warriors	10	11	13	8	8	50	Charlie Leigh '22 [1-5] Fernando Sierra '22 [1-2, 5] Mariana Sierra '23 [3-4]
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	11	4	RDG	RDG	15	50	Katelyn Herter '20 Kenan Walsh '20
Fort Myers High School	Green Wave	12	9	7	12	11	51	Bo Dwyer '22 [1-5] Morgan Gahan '22 [1-2, 5] Caroline Cicotte '21 [3-4]
Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	13	8	11	14	16	62	Frederick Debiase '20 Sara Lemba '21
Vero Beach High School	Vero Beach	14	13	10	13	14	64	Sydney Ohs '23 Catherine Lovelady '23
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	16	16	17	16	10	75	Liz Cloninger '22 Campbell Taylor '22
Martin County High School	Tigers	17	15	15	15	13	75	Stevan Weiss '22 Diego Cruz '23
MOA/Westwood High School	Panthers	15	17	16	17	19	84	Nicholas Stange '20 Austin Daigle '20
Pine Crest School	Panthers	DNF	18	14	18	18	88	Max Maister '23 [1-5] Molly Schlesinger '23 [1-2] William Burke '23 [3-5]
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Carrollton School	DNF	DNS	DNF	19	17	96	Carolina Gaston '21 [1-3, 5] Paulina Freyre '25 [4] Paulina Freyre '25 [1-3, 5] Natalie Scherr '20 [4]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2020 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School	16	16	13	13	5
Fort Myers High School Green Wave	13	13	5	5	3
Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	5	5	3	3	4
Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions	4	4	17	17	18
Jensen Beach High School Falcons	17	17	18	18	19
Manatee High School Hurricanes	19	19	9	9	10
Martin County High School Tigers	9	9	10	10	2
MOA/Westwood High School Panthers	18	18	19	19	9
Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	10	10	2	2	14
Pine Crest School Panthers	2	2	14	14	15
H. B. Plant High School Panthers	3	3	4	4	17
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	14	14	15	15	6
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	11	11	8	8	12
Sarasota High School Sailors	15	15	6	6	7
Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers	6	6	7	7	1
South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS	7	7	1	1	11
St. Petersburg High School Green Devils	1	1	11	11	8
Vero Beach High School Vero Beach	8	8	12	12	16
Westminster Christian School Warriors	12	12	16	16	13

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School	10	10	2	2	14
Fort Myers High School Green Wave	2	2	14	14	15
Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	14	14	15	15	6
Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions	6	6	7	7	1
Jensen Beach High School Falcons	7	7	1	1	11
Manatee High School Hurricanes	11	11	8	8	12
Martin County High School Tigers	8	8	12	12	16
MOA/Westwood High School Panthers	1	1	11	11	8
Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	12	12	16	16	13
Pine Crest School Panthers	16	16	13	13	5
H. B. Plant High School Panthers	15	15	6	6	7
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	13	13	5	5	3
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	18	18	19	19	9
Sarasota High School Sailors	5	5	3	3	4
Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers	3	3	4	4	17
South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS	4	4	17	17	18
St. Petersburg High School Green Devils	17	17	18	18	19
Vero Beach High School Vero Beach	19	19	9	9	10
Westminster Christian School Warriors	9	9	10	10	2

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Audrey Russler '26 [1-5]	Natalia Freyre '23 [1-3, 5] Carolina Gaston '21 [4]
Carrollton School	Carolina Gaston '21 [1-3, 5] Paulina Freyre '25 [4]	Paulina Freyre '25 [1-3, 5] Natalie Scherr '20 [4]
Fort Myers High School	Patrick Walke '21	Zachary Syska '22
Green Wave	Bo Dwyer '22 [1-5]	Morgan Gahan '22 [1-2, 5] Caroline Cicotte '21 [3-4]
Gulliver Preparatory School	Daniel Hughes '21	Chris Purcell '21
Raiders	Kyle Bramson '20 [1-2] Cort Snyder '23 [3-5]	Roberto Lugones '20 [1-2] Jonas Carvalho '23 [3-5]
H. B. Plant High School	Garrett Brooks '22 [1-5]	Emmy Digiacomo '20 [1-2, 5] Blake Wilson '20 [3-4]
Panthers	Reid Nelson '23 [1-5]	Spencer Brooks '20 [1-2] Elliot Francola '23 [3-5]
Immaculata La Salle High School	Justin Callahan '22 [1-5]	Antonio Miranda '20 [1-4] Isabela Martinez-Moure '20 [5]
Royal Lions	Mitchell Callahan '22	Brianna Ross '22
Jensen Beach High School	Chloe Hudgins '20	Cole Degner '21
Falcons	Frederick Debiase '20	Sara Lemba '21
MOA/Westwood High School	Heriberto Lara-Mijares '20	Colin Flink '20
Panthers	Nicholas Stange '20	Austin Daigle '20
Manatee High School	Bryce Tone '21	Matthew Mackin '21
Hurricanes	Nick Dewitt '22	Riley Baugh '20
Martin County High School	Kathryn Thorsen '21	Jennifer Donelon '22
Tigers	Stevan Weiss '22	Diego Cruz '23
Oxbridge Academy	Hilton Kamps '22	Aidan Deitrick '20
ThunderWolves	Liz Cloninger '22	Campbell Taylor '22
Pine Crest School	Sean Anagnoste '23 [1-5]	Rachel Becker '23 [1-2] Daniel Wilentz '23 [3-5]
Panthers	Max Maister '23 [1-5]	Molly Schlesinger '23 [1-2] William Burke '23 [3-5]
Ransom Everglades School	Lachlain Mc Granahan '20	Adam Kaplan '21
Raiders	Liam O'Keefe '21 [1-2, 5] Javier Garcon '21 [3-4]	Louis La Fontisse '21 [1-2] Lucas Vianna '21 [3-4] Nicolas Echarte '21 [5]
Sarasota High School	Will Murray '20	Kay Brumsvold '21
Sailors	Matthew King '20	Nick Powers '21
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Guthrie Braun '22	Thomas Cura '21
Chargers	Heather Kerns '20	Zuri Patel '20
South Fork High School	Emily Bornarth '20	Ryan Ince '21
SF BULLDOGS	Katelyn Herter '20	Kenan Walsh '20
St. Petersburg High School	Emma Shakespeare '20 [1-5]	Hannah Marsicano '20 [1-2] Tyler Rogers '20 [3-5]
Green Devils	Emily Allen '21	Tommy Chase '20
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Connor Boland '21 [1-5]	Sam Juskiewicz '20 [1-4] Isa Duplessis '20 [5]
Raiders	Libby Redmond '20 [1-5]	Isa Duplessis '20 [1-2] Sophia St. Romain '22 [3-5]
Vero Beach High School	Mylee Smith '21	Katherine Bounassi '23
Vero Beach	Sydney Ohs '23	Catherine Lovelady '23
Westminster Christian School	Enzo Menditto '22	Joshua Pike '22
Warriors	Charlie Leigh '22 [1-5]	Fernando Sierra '22 [1-2, 5] Mariana Sierra '23 [3-4]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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South Points #6

Division A

Division B

From the notes