| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Antilles School | Hurricanes | 8–2 |
| 2 |  |
Ransom Everglades School | Raiders | 8–2 |
| 3 |  |
Immaculata La Salle High School | Royal Lions | 7–3 |
| 4 |  |
St. Thomas Aquinas High School | Raiders | 5–5 |
| 5 |  |
Shorecrest Preparatory School | Chargers | 2–8 |
| 6 |  |
Oxbridge Academy | ThunderWolves | 0–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,491 team race matches sailed before 2021-05-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 28 of 30 matches (93%) with a log-loss of 0.291 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.13 ± 0.42: a typical event, more orderly than 50% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Immaculata La Salle High School | 7.51 | 8.39 | 7–3 | 6.0 | +0.88 | 0.5 | 33% |
| 4 | St. Thomas Aquinas High School | 6.48 | 6.92 | 5–5 | 4.5 | +0.44 | 0.1 | 49% |
| 2 | Ransom Everglades School | 8.68 | 8.88 | 8–2 | 7.8 | +0.20 | 0.0 | 62% |
| 1 | Antilles School | 9.11 | 8.71 | 8–2 | 8.4 | −0.39 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 5 | Shorecrest Preparatory School | 5.52 | 3.82 | 2–8 | 3.1 | −1.70 | 1.0 | 97% |
| 6 | Oxbridge Academy | 2.26 | -0.74 | 0–10 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary (Lucy) Meagher | St. Thomas Aquinas High School | 1.35 | 2.84 | 5–3 | 3.8 | +1.50 | 1.0 | 22% |
| Danny Rianno | Immaculata La Salle High School | 1.01 | 1.88 | 7–3 | 6.0 | +0.88 | 0.5 | 33% |
| Robert (Bobby) Rielly | St. Thomas Aquinas High School | 2.12 | 2.56 | 5–5 | 4.5 | +0.44 | 0.1 | 49% |
| Hilton Kamps | Oxbridge Academy | 0.42 | -2.58 | 0–10 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
| Zander Pestrichelli | Oxbridge Academy | -0.13 | -3.13 | 0–10 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
ThunderWolves | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Chargers | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-5 | def. | |
ThunderWolves | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Raiders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Chargers | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Chargers | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
ThunderWolves | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Chargers | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Royal Lions | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-4 | def. | |
ThunderWolves | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Chargers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
ThunderWolves | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Royal Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
ThunderWolves | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Chargers | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-5 | def. | |
ThunderWolves | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Chargers | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Chargers | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Raiders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
ThunderWolves | 2-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Hurricanes | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 25 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Chargers | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Royal Lions | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
ThunderWolves | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Raiders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Chargers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
ThunderWolves | 2-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
