NJISA 2024 TR Spring Series 1

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Seton Hall Preparatory School Seton Hall Preparatory School Pirates 11 5 16
2 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 9 8 17
3 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 14 7 21
4 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 6 19 25
5 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 16 12 28
6 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 8 25 33
7 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 24 20 44
8 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 28 17 45
9 Ridge High School Ridge High School Red Devils 22 27 49
10 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 30 25 55
11 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 4 30 33 63
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 1111
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 2222
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 3333
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 4555
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins444
Ridge High SchoolRidge High School Red Devils777
Seton Hall Preparatory SchoolSeton Hall Preparatory School Pirates999
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 1101010
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 2111111
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians121212
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs141414

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 1111
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 2222
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 3333
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 4555
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins444
Ridge High SchoolRidge High School Red Devils777
Seton Hall Preparatory SchoolSeton Hall Preparatory School Pirates999
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 1101010
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 2111111
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians121212
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs141414

Conditions — 03/27/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1019.2 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.0 kn
avg  ·  max 3.0 kn
Gusts to 9.9 kn
From NE (34°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine5.4 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1019.2 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christian Brothers: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.19)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.34 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.19 means a rating gap counts about 16% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christian Brothers by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Christian Brothers, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →