Nathan Hale High School '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.98 (fleet 1.57) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 12–11 (52%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 6–2 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 5–4 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (23 matches) the record is 12–11 against 10.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-12 | Seattle Team Race | skipper | 0.83 | 0.16 | 1–5 | 1.5 | −0.67 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 2019-03-16 | Olympia Gold Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.85 | 1.98 | 6–2 | 4.6 | +1.13 | 0.8 | 26% |
| 2018-05-05 | NWISA JV Team Race Districts | skipper | 0.55 | 0.65 | 5–4 | 4.9 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Season | |||||
| NWISA Silver Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.6 | 1.70 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Alden Mcgonagle |  Inglemoor High School |
'21 |
| ISSA | Alden Mcgonagle |  Roosevelt High School |
'21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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