Bryn Mawr '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.59 (fleet 2.58) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–0 (100%) as crew 19–10 (66%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2023 | 1 | — | 6–2 |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | — | 9–7 |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 1–0 | 4–1 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (29 matches) the record is 19–10 against 15.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-04 | VISA Southside Team Race Series #2 | crew | 2.19 | 4.71 | 6–2 | 3.0 | +2.53 | 4.2 | 2% |
| 2023-04-29 | MASSA Team Race Championship | crew | 2.26 | 1.62 | 5–7 | 6.0 | −0.64 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 2023-04-22 | VISA Team Championship | crew | 2.23 | 5.23 | 4–0 | 2.9 | ≥+3.00 | 1.8 | 25% |
| 2022-04-23 | VISA Team Championship | crew | 2.04 | 2.62 | 4–1 | 3.9 | +0.58 | 0.0 | 78% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 Season | |||||
| MASSA Cressy Quailifier Girls ILCA 6 Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 12 | 1.6 | 2.60 |
| 24/25 Cressy National Championship ILCA 6 Female Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.8 | 1.01 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Alders Kulynych-Irvin |  Dartmouth College |
'29 |
| ISSA | Alders Kulynych-Irvin |  Maret |
'25 |
| ISSA | Alders Kulynych-Irvin |  Christchurch School |
'25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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