Phoebus High School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.30 (fleet 0.46) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–11 (35%) as crew 1–5 (17%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 4–7 | — |
| Fall 2024 | 1 | 2–4 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | — | 1–5 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (23 matches) the record is 7–16 against 6.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-19 | VISA Team Race Championship for Patterson Trophy | skipper | 0.67 | -1.46 | 1–5 | 1.9 | −2.13 | 1.0 | 98% |
| 2025-03-29 | VISA Poquoson Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.54 | 2.68 | 3–2 | 2.0 | +2.14 | 1.2 | 23% |
| 2024-09-14 | VISA Hampton City Schools Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.37 | 1.38 | 2–4 | 1.5 | +1.01 | 0.3 | 44% |
| 2024-04-20 | VISA Team Race Championship | crew | 0.56 | -0.01 | 1–5 | 1.3 | −0.57 | 0.1 | 83% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA CCS Fleet Regatta 2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.5 | 1.01 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Kecoughtan Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.4 | -0.23 |
| VISA Poquoson Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.6 | 0.08 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA NSA Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 17.8 | -3.79 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| VISA Kecoughtan/Phoebus Fleet Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 17.2 | -2.70 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
