West Bloomfield High School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.44 (fleet -0.71) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 2–26 (7%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 | 1 | — | 0–6 |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | — | 0–8 |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | — | 1–7 |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 1–5 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (28 matches) the record is 2–26 against 8.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−6.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-06 | Lake St. Clair Classic Fall Team Race | crew | 0.40 | -2.60 | 0–6 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| 2019-04-12 | MISSA East Baker - Pre Qualifier Tier 2 | crew | 0.94 | -2.06 | 0–8 | 2.4 | ≤−3.00 | 4.0 | >99% |
| 2018-10-07 | Tango on the Lake Team Race | crew | 0.60 | -2.53 | 1–7 | 3.9 | −3.13 | 4.6 | >99% |
| 2017-04-15 | Grosse Pointe South Team Race Regatta | crew | 0.78 | 0.29 | 1–5 | 1.3 | −0.49 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2017 Season | |||||
| Halloween Regatta at PYC | Skipper | B | 6 | 23.0 | -1.09 |
| Fall 2016 Season | |||||
| DCDS Halloween Regatta | Crew | B | 4 | 19.0 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Dwight Ellis |  Grosse Pointe North High School |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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