Cheverus High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.57 (fleet 0.93) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–10 (23%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 4 | 3–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 3–9 against 4.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-05 | Cheverus Team Race | skipper | 0.38 | -2.62 | 0–3 | 1.2 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
| 2018-04-07 | Clipper Challenge | skipper | 0.42 | -2.58 | 0–5 | 1.7 | ≤−3.00 | 2.7 | >99% |
| 2018-03-31 | Falmouth Team Race | skipper | 0.29 | 2.64 | 3–1 | 1.7 | +2.34 | 1.6 | 18% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Fall Funfest (Gleekman) | Crew | B | 1 | 16.0 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | John Holt |  Wentworth Institute of Technology |
'22 |
| ICSA | John Holt |  University of Maine |
'23 |
| ISSA | John Holt |  Portland High School |
'18 |
| ISSA | John Holt |  Unregistered-NESSA |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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