West Bloomfield High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.01 (fleet -0.02) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–9 (25%) as crew 5–3 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 3–6 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 0–3 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 5–3 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (20 matches) the record is 8–12 against 7.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-10-21 | 2017 GPS Fall Team Race Regatta | skipper | 0.18 | -0.46 | 3–6 | 3.8 | −0.64 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 2017-05-13 | Cherryland no wind regatta | skipper | 0.22 | -2.78 | 0–3 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| 2016-05-14 | Cherryland Team Race | crew | 0.46 | 1.99 | 5–3 | 3.0 | +1.53 | 1.7 | 12% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2017 Season | |||||
| October Fun Regatta | Skipper | B | 2 | 4.5 | 1.04 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Megan O'Gorman |  University of Notre Dame |
'22 |
| ISSA | Megan O'Gorman |  Bloomfield Hills High School |
'18 |
| ISSA | Megan O'Gorman |  Detroit Country Day School |
'18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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