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2010 Bryson Women's

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 30 17 47
2 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 32 31 63
3 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 27 53 80
4 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles UC Los Angeles 49 34 83
5 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 62 58 120
6 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Berkeley 68 65 133
7 California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 68 78 146
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 3 5 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 2 1 27 Hannah Tuson-Turner '11
Hanne Nagatani '13
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 4 1 2 7 1 3 3 2 1 1 3 2 30 Eliza Richartz '13
Alysha De Souza '12
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 1 6 1 2 3 2 2 4 5 2 1 3 32 Kelsey Rupp '12
Mallory Schluter '14
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles UC Los Angeles 2 3 4 1 4 7 6 5 4 5 4 4 49 Carmen Bozina '11 [1-12]
Amy Stuyvesant '13 [1-5, 11-12]
Emelia Pelliccio '13 [6-10]
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 5 4 6 5 5 5 4 7 3 7 5 6 62 Ashley Hobson '13
Martha Davis '12
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 6 7 5 6 7 4 7 3 6 4 6 7 68 Ashley Eberhard '11
Natalie Cardoso '13
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Berkeley 7 2 7 4 6 6 5 6 7 6 7 5 68 Lauren Amery '12
Michelle Hanson '13
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 1 17 Sarah Mace '14
Yuri Namikawa '14
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 1 3 4 31 Emily Dahl '13
Natalie Rastello '11
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles UC Los Angeles 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 4 3 2 3 34 Carmen Bozina '11 [1-12]
Amy Stuyvesant '13 [1-5, 11-12]
Emelia Pelliccio '13 [6-10]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 2 6 2 5 5 53 Madeline Kennedy '14 [1-12]
Taylor Nidds '13 [1-3, 10-12]
Holly Nishiguchi '13 [4-9]
University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 4 4 6 6 5 4 3 4 5 7 4 6 58 Blair Johnston '11 [1-4]
Kate Andersen '15 [5-12]
Kate Andersen '15 [1-4]
Blair Johnston '11 [5-12]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Berkeley 6 6 7 5 7 6 6 6 3 4 7 2 65 Megan Hayes '13
Cathy Liu '12
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 7 7 4 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 78 Maryan Gonnerman '11
Christina Stege '14
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Berkeley112233445566
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows223344556677
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters334455667711
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans445566771122
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal556677112233
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters667711223344
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles UC Los Angeles771122334455

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Berkeley111112121313141415151616
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows121213131414151516161717
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters131314141515161617171111
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans141415151616171711111212
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal151516161717111112121313
University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Irvine Anteaters161617171111121213131414
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles UC Los Angeles171711111212131314141515

Conditions — 10/02/2010 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1013.6 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 60°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.4 kn
avg  ·  max 5.3 kn
Gusts to 14.2 kn
From W (262°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover34% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1013.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.20 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →