North #2

HostCornell
Date10/16/2010
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
Boat420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	28	25	53
2	Cornell University	Big Red 1	35	30	65
3	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	43	25	68
4	Columbia University	Lions	29	45	74
5	Fordham University	Rams	43	32	75
6	Queen's University	Gaels	44	44	88
7	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	51	57	108
8	Cornell University	Big Red 2	53	58	111
9	University of Rochester	U. Rochester	42	78	120
10	Webb Institute	Webb Institute	44	88	132
11	Rochester Institute of Technology	Rochester	90	63	153
12	Colgate University	Colgate	97	61	158
13	University of Ottawa	University of Ottawa	100	74	174
14	U. S. Military Academy	Army	90	94	184
15	Rutgers University	Rutgers	73	116	189
16	Ocean County College	Vikings	100	106	206
17	Drexel University	Dragons	123	96	219
18	Royal Military College	Royal Military	116	108	224

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	3	2	5	2	4	8	4	28	Potter Hodgson '13 Camille Conover '14
Columbia University	Lions	5	5	1	8	7	1	2	29	Brendan Hannon '11 Marie Johnson '12
Cornell University	Big Red 1	1	8	4	4	6	9	3	35	Philip Alley '12 [1-7] Juliet Levine '14 [1-4] Conor Cashel '14 [5-7]
University of Rochester	U. Rochester	2	1	7	3	11	10	8	42	Geoff Williams '11 Sarah Young '13
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	4	4	2	10	9	5	9	43	Tyler Steel '13 Kyle Crandall '12
Fordham University	Rams	10	7	3	6	5	6	6	43	Joseph Turchiano '11 Emma Pfohman '13
Webb Institute	Webb Institute	6	6	9	5	3	4	11	44	Nathan Fast '14 Michael Larose '13
Queen's University	Gaels	11	9	OCS	1	1	2	1	44	Matthew Sullivan '13 William Douglas '13
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	12	11	6	7	2	3	10	51	Robert Boger '13 Samantha Sofge '14
Cornell University	Big Red 2	8	3	11	9	10	7	5	53	Blair Davis '10 Colleen Cozzens '12
Rutgers University	Rutgers	7	17	10	12	8	12	7	73	Ross Nuechterlein '11 Mike Mcneley '11
Rochester Institute of Technology	Rochester	9	12	14	15	13	13	14	90	Nathan Fulcher '13 [1-4] John Handel '12 [5-6] Daniel Christiani '15 [7] John Handel '12 [1-4]
U. S. Military Academy	Army	16	18	8	13	12	11	12	90	Alexander Lovo '11 Peter Hudelson '11
Colgate University	Colgate	14	10	12	14	16	15	16	97	Nathan Swift '11 [1-4] Leah Feldman '14 [5-7] Hillary Karsten '12 [1-4] Sara Winkelman '12 [5-7]
University of Ottawa	University of Ottawa	13	14	15	16	15	14	13	100	Ethan Plato '12 Daniel Bader '13
Ocean County College	Vikings	15	15	13	11	14	17	15	100	Nicholas Rinaldi '14 Andrew Daponte '14
Royal Military College	Royal Military	18	13	17	18	17	16	17	116	Marc Flynn '12 Jennifer Bowen '12
Drexel University	Dragons	17	16	16	17	DNF	DNS	DNS	123	Jason Sinclair '13 Katherine Rimmele '14

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	3	7	2	1	2	1	9	25	Michael Deady '14 Kathryn Moloney '13
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	5	2	3	6	4	2	3	25	Matthew Schoene '15 Paige Conlin '14
Cornell University	Big Red 1	8	1	6	4	1	8	2	30	Vincent Andrews '11 Martha Peterson '12
Fordham University	Rams	1	5	1	2	3	DSQ	1	32	Alexander Sachs '12 Ryann Hall '11
Queen's University	Gaels	7	4	4	10	8	7	4	44	Charles Legge '12 Elizabeth Campbell '12
Columbia University	Lions	2	3	5	8	10	10	7	45	John Croll '12 [1-7] Kerry Morrison '11 [1-4, 7] Austin Lo '12 [5-6]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	6	6	9	5	DSQ	6	6	57	Arthur Bailey Iv '14 Maggy Ashton '14
Cornell University	Big Red 2	12	11	8	3	5	11	8	58	Jonathan Goldsmith '11 Devon Furlong '13
Colgate University	Colgate	11	10	12	14	6	3	5	61	Caroline Libby '14 [1-2] Morgan Beals '13 [3-4] Scott Layton '11 [5-7] Andrea Liptack '13 [1-4] Caroline Libby '14 [5-7]
Rochester Institute of Technology	Rochester	9	8	15	7	9	5	10	63	Ian Hunt '13 [1-4, 7] Christopher Sullivan '12 [5-6] Peter Thorpe '13 [1-4, 7]
University of Ottawa	University of Ottawa	4	13	10	11	12	9	15	74	Jonathan Williams '11 Emily Rees '12
University of Rochester	U. Rochester	10	16	13	13	11	4	11	78	Nicholas Troche '11 Kelly Rousmaniere '14
Webb Institute	Webb Institute	13	14	7	9	17	16	12	88	James Codega '14 Marc Smith '13
U. S. Military Academy	Army	14	12	11	15	13	15	14	94	Gregory Dempsey '11 Dylan Russell '13
Drexel University	Dragons	17	15	14	12	7	13	18	96	Chris Myers '15 Erin Maccausland '14
Ocean County College	Vikings	15	17	16	18	15	12	13	106	Jack Murray '14 Matthew Walton '14
Royal Military College	Royal Military	18	9	DNS	16	16	14	16	108	Mitch Newman '12 Beca Macdonald '12
Rutgers University	Rutgers	16	18	17	17	14	17	17	116	Welf Ludwig '12 Tim Gorzelnik '14

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
U. S. Military Academy Army	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Colgate University Colgate	2	2	18	18	16	16	14
Columbia University Lions	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Cornell University Big Red 1	4	4	2	2	18	18	16
Cornell University Big Red 2	12	12	10	10	8	8	6
Drexel University Dragons	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Fordham University Rams	6	6	4	4	2	2	18
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	8	8	6	6	4	4	2
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Ocean County College Vikings	10	10	8	8	6	6	4
University of Ottawa University of Ottawa	16	16	14	14	12	12	10
Queen's University Gaels	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester	13	13	15	15	17	17	1
University of Rochester U. Rochester	17	17	1	1	3	3	5
Royal Military College Royal Military	14	14	12	12	10	10	8
Rutgers University Rutgers	15	15	17	17	1	1	3
Webb Institute Webb Institute	18	18	16	16	14	14	12

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
U. S. Military Academy Army	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Colgate University Colgate	1	1	17	17	15	15	13
Columbia University Lions	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Cornell University Big Red 1	3	3	1	1	17	17	15
Cornell University Big Red 2	11	11	9	9	7	7	5
Drexel University Dragons	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Fordham University Rams	5	5	3	3	1	1	17
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	7	7	5	5	3	3	1
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Ocean County College Vikings	9	9	7	7	5	5	3
University of Ottawa University of Ottawa	15	15	13	13	11	11	9
Queen's University Gaels	12	12	14	14	16	16	18
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester	14	14	16	16	18	18	2
University of Rochester U. Rochester	18	18	2	2	4	4	6
Royal Military College Royal Military	13	13	11	11	9	9	7
Rutgers University Rutgers	16	16	18	18	2	2	4
Webb Institute Webb Institute	17	17	15	15	13	13	11

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Colgate University	Nathan Swift '11 [1-4] Leah Feldman '14 [5-7]	Hillary Karsten '12 [1-4] Sara Winkelman '12 [5-7]
Colgate	Caroline Libby '14 [1-2] Morgan Beals '13 [3-4] Scott Layton '11 [5-7]	Andrea Liptack '13 [1-4] Caroline Libby '14 [5-7]
Columbia University	Brendan Hannon '11	Marie Johnson '12
Lions	John Croll '12 [1-7]	Kerry Morrison '11 [1-4, 7] Austin Lo '12 [5-6]
Cornell University	Philip Alley '12 [1-7]	Juliet Levine '14 [1-4] Conor Cashel '14 [5-7]
Big Red 1	Vincent Andrews '11	Martha Peterson '12
Cornell University	Blair Davis '10	Colleen Cozzens '12
Big Red 2	Jonathan Goldsmith '11	Devon Furlong '13
Drexel University	Jason Sinclair '13	Katherine Rimmele '14
Dragons	Chris Myers '15	Erin Maccausland '14
Fordham University	Joseph Turchiano '11	Emma Pfohman '13
Rams	Alexander Sachs '12	Ryann Hall '11
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Potter Hodgson '13	Camille Conover '14
Statesmen	Michael Deady '14	Kathryn Moloney '13
Ocean County College	Nicholas Rinaldi '14	Andrew Daponte '14
Vikings	Jack Murray '14	Matthew Walton '14
Queen's University	Matthew Sullivan '13	William Douglas '13
Gaels	Charles Legge '12	Elizabeth Campbell '12
Rochester Institute of Technology	Nathan Fulcher '13 [1-4] John Handel '12 [5-6] Daniel Christiani '15 [7]	John Handel '12 [1-4]
Rochester	Ian Hunt '13 [1-4, 7] Christopher Sullivan '12 [5-6]	Peter Thorpe '13 [1-4, 7]
Royal Military College	Marc Flynn '12	Jennifer Bowen '12
Royal Military	Mitch Newman '12	Beca Macdonald '12
Rutgers University	Ross Nuechterlein '11	Mike Mcneley '11
Rutgers	Welf Ludwig '12	Tim Gorzelnik '14
SUNY Maritime College	Tyler Steel '13	Kyle Crandall '12
Privateers	Matthew Schoene '15	Paige Conlin '14
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Robert Boger '13	Samantha Sofge '14
Mariners	Arthur Bailey Iv '14	Maggy Ashton '14
U. S. Military Academy	Alexander Lovo '11	Peter Hudelson '11
Army	Gregory Dempsey '11	Dylan Russell '13
University of Ottawa	Ethan Plato '12	Daniel Bader '13
University of Ottawa	Jonathan Williams '11	Emily Rees '12
University of Rochester	Geoff Williams '11	Sarah Young '13
U. Rochester	Nicholas Troche '11	Kelly Rousmaniere '14
Webb Institute	Nathan Fast '14	Michael Larose '13
Webb Institute	James Codega '14	Marc Smith '13

Conditions — 10/16/2010 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy

Humidity 65% · Pressure 1013.5 hPa

Temperature

49°F

↑ 52°F ↓ 46°F

Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.5 kn

avg · max 13.5 kn

Gusts to 32.5 kn

From NW (321°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover50% Sunshine9.5 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1013.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 13 kn · NW 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Cornell: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.09

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.15 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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