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NE Women's Singles

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
Boston College Boston College Anne Haeger '12 3 3 1 3 1 4 1 1 2 2 1 2 5 2 31
Yale University Yale University Claire Dennis '13 4 2 2 1 2 2 4 9 1 7 3 3 10 5 55
Yale University Yale University Emily Billing '13 1 1 3 2 6 13 6 11 3 1 2 1 2 6 58
Brown University Brown University Sky Adams '14 2 5 5 4 4 8 7 13 7 4 5 4 11 3 82
Brown University Brown University Jessica Claflin '13 12 4 9 10 3 5 2 10 9 3 11 8 1 1 88
Boston College Boston College Carolyn Naughton '14 5 8 7 6 9 1 5 7 4 10 6 5 8 8 89
Yale University Yale University Urska Kosir '15 11 13 15 14 12 7 3 5 5 12 8 10 7 4 126
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Lauren Cefali '15 10 12 12 13 14 3 13 4 8 8 9 12 4 7 129
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 6 9 10 9 10 15 10 8 10 9 14 7 3 11 131
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Hanna Vincent '14 7 7 6 5 11 14 12 6 11 13 4 11 13 12 132
Brown University Brown University Kelly Mcglynn '15 9 11 4 7 13 9 8 2 13 5 12 15 9 15 132
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Wendy Reuss '15 8 14 13 15 8 6 11 3 6 14 10 14 12 9 143
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Devon Rohde '15 15 15 14 8 7 12 9 14 15 6 13 9 6 10 153
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Kaylee Schwitzer '15 13 10 8 11 15 10 15 12 12 11 7 6 14 14 158
Connecticut College Connecticut College Liz Dubovik '15 14 6 11 12 5 11 14 15 14 15 15 13 15 13 173
Boat Speed Analyzer

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels88888888888888

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  15 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Anne Haeger '12Boston College Eagles 214/143.084.71+1.6483rd → 99th8.51%2.2 / 5.2
2Claire Dennis '13Yale University Bulldogs 214/142.403.44+1.0461st → 89th4.44%3.9 / 6.7
3Emily Billing '13Yale University Bulldogs 114/142.483.14+0.6562nd → 84th1.88%4.1 / 6.5
4Sky Adams '14Brown University Bears 114/142.122.63+0.5056th → 69th1.223%5.9 / 7.2
5Jessica Claflin '13Brown University Bears 314/141.952.37+0.4250th → 61st0.927%6.3 / 7.7
6Carolyn Naughton '14Boston College Eagles 114/141.852.57+0.7246th → 67th2.419%6.4 / 7.9
7Urska Kosir '15Yale University Elis14/141.771.35−0.4243rd → 31st1.067%9.0 / 8.0
8Lauren Cefali '15U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 214/141.381.53+0.1533rd → 38th0.153%9.2 / 9.0
10Hanna Vincent '14Massachusetts Institute of Technology14/141.441.54+0.1035th → 38th0.164%9.4 / 8.8
10Kelly Mcglynn '15Brown University Bears 214/141.181.25+0.0727th → 29th0.050%9.4 / 9.4
12Wendy Reuss '15Roger Williams University14/141.011.10+0.0923rd → 25th0.060%10.2 / 9.6
13Devon Rohde '15U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 114/141.160.74−0.4227th → 17th0.876%10.9 / 9.4
14Kaylee Schwitzer '15Bowdoin College14/142.140.73−1.4056th → 17th12.398%11.3 / 7.2
15Liz Dubovik '15Connecticut College14/141.160.30−0.8626th → 11th3.692%12.4 / 9.4

Conditions — 10/01/2011 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 93%  ·  Pressure 1003.9 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.7 kn
avg  ·  max 8.4 kn
Gusts to 25.3 kn
From N (358°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine2.4 hrs Humidity93% Pressure1003.9 hPa Rain0.80 in

What this breeze does at Yale — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Yale in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.10)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Yale by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Yale).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →