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Mascoma Invitational/Northern Series 2

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 109
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 132
3 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 223
4 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 261
5 University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 326
6 Colby Colby Colby 494
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 R17 R18 R19 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos A 5 5 4 3 5 2 1 1 3 3 2 2 2 1 3 3 4 2 1 52 Amanda Sommi '16
Mackenzie Loy '13
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green B 3 2 3 4 3 1 3 3 2 5 7 1 4 5 2 1 1 1 2 53 Dylan Kavookjian '16
Rachel Margolese '16
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green A 1 1 1 2 1 3 2 6 6 4 1 4 1 3 1 4 6 6 3 56 Thomas Gallagher '16 [1-19]
Emily Petno '16 [1-10]
Hope Wilson '16 [11-19]
Bates College Bates College Bobcats A 2 3 2 1 2 5 7 2 4 2 3 5 6 4 4 2 2 3 4 63 Samuel Scribner '15
Camille Cushman '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos B 6 4 5 5 4 4 6 4 1 1 8 3 3 2 5 6 3 4 6 80 Sarah Stubbs '16
Madeline Luce '13
McGill University McGill University Redbirds A 4 7 6 6 9 6 4 8 7 7 4 6 5 6 9 5 5 7 8 119 Simon Li '14
Maximilien Brodel '15
McGill University McGill University Redbirds B 8 9 10 10 8 7 5 5 5 6 6 8 10 7 6 8 9 5 10 142 James Paolino '15
Thomas Erwes '14
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs A 9 8 7 9 7 10 9 7 9 10 5 7 8 8 7 9 8 9 5 151 Michelle Guidotti '13 [1-19]
Shawna Denn '13 [1-5]
Julia Trudel '15 [6-19]
Bates College Bates College Bobcats B 7 6 8 7 10 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 7 DNF DNS 7 7 8 7 160 William Seider '16
Jonathan Gougelet '16
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs B 10 10 9 8 6 9 10 10 10 8 10 10 9 9 8 10 10 10 9 175 Maggie Mcdonald '14 [1-5]
Bailey Rice '15 [6-19]
Kelsey Martins '16 [1-5]
Emma Linden '15 [6-19]
Colby Colby Colby A DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 247
Colby Colby Colby B DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 247
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A15A16A17A18A19A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats1111111111111111111
ColbyColby Colby2222222222222222222
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green3333333333333333333
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds4444444444444444444
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos5555555555555555555
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs6666666666666666666

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B15B16B17B18B19B
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats7777777777777777777
ColbyColby Colby8888888888888888888
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green9999999999999999999
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds10101010101010101010101010101010101010
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos11111111111111111111111111111111111111
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs12121212121212121212121212121212121212

Conditions — 09/22/2012 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 79%  ·  Pressure 1013.5 hPa

Temperature

65°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.0 kn
avg  ·  max 7.6 kn
Gusts to 17.9 kn
From SW (229°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover43% Sunshine8.3 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1013.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn · N 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Dartmouth: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.22
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.24 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Dartmouth by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (34 labelled days at Dartmouth).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →