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Faye Bennet MAISA Women's Singles

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
George Washington University George Washington University Riley Legault '19 1 2 5 5 3 1 1 4 7 8 6 2 4 5 54
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Lenox Butcher '20 13 3 8 1 1 2 3 3 2 2 4 1 7 13 63
Georgetown University Georgetown University Carly Broussard '21 3 14 2 3 2 4 4 7 3 1 11 12 2 1 69
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Jessica Mcjones '20 6 6 9 7 6 5 6 1 5 4 3 7 6 3 74
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Claire Siegel-Wilson '22 7 7 7 4 4 3 10 9 11 11 1 5 1 7 87
Georgetown University Georgetown University Macey Mccann '20 10 1 1 2 12 7 7 2 10 5 DSQ 3 3 8 89
Cornell University Cornell University Gabby Rizika '20 4 4 10 6 11 12 13 8 6 3 5 8 8 2 100
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Ellie Ungar '19 2 10 17 8 5 11 9 5 1 7 9 15 12 4 115
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Amanda Majernik '22 12 12 13 10 10 6 11 10 9 6 8 9 5 9 130
Fordham University Fordham University Charlotte Leclue '19 9 11 11 11 15 8 5 11 13 12 2 14 11 6 139
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Brittney Slook '20 14 15 12 13 8 15 2 13 4 9 7 6 13 11 142
Georgetown University Georgetown University Marley Mais '21 8 13 3 14 9 10 12 16 14 10 10 16 14 12 161
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Bridget Groble '22 5 5 4 12 14 16 14 14 15 13 15 11 10 14 162
Cornell University Cornell University Patricia Corujo '21 15 9 6 9 16 9 8 17 16 14 14 17 9 15 174
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Kate Bjerregaard '19 16 16 16 15 7 17 17 15 8 15 12 4 17 10 185
Cornell University Cornell University Halle Buescher '21 11 8 15 17 13 14 15 12 17 16 16 13 16 16 199
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Bridget Lawless '21 17 17 14 16 17 13 16 6 12 17 13 10 15 17 200

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  17 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Riley Legault '19George Washington University14/143.053.97+0.9283rd → 95th3.55%3.9 / 6.6
2Lenox Butcher '20University of Pennsylvania Quakers 114/142.603.43+0.8268th → 89th2.95%4.5 / 7.6
3Carly Broussard '21Georgetown University Hoyas 114/142.583.23+0.6567th → 85th1.97%4.9 / 7.7
4Jessica Mcjones '20U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 114/142.643.45+0.8169th → 89th3.011%5.3 / 7.5
5Claire Siegel-Wilson '22Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 114/142.033.05+1.0253rd → 83rd4.614%6.2 / 9.0
6Macey Mccann '20Georgetown University Hoyas 314/142.423.21+0.8061st → 85th2.625%6.4 / 8.1
7Gabby Rizika '20Cornell University Big Red 114/142.592.71+0.1368th → 72nd0.143%7.1 / 7.7
8Ellie Ungar '19St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 114/142.272.12−0.1559th → 56th0.147%8.2 / 8.4
9Amanda Majernik '22University of Pennsylvania Quakers 214/142.162.29+0.1356th → 59th0.160%9.3 / 8.7
10Charlotte Leclue '19Fordham University14/141.982.00+0.0251st → 52nd0.061%9.9 / 9.2
11Brittney Slook '20U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 214/142.121.83−0.2956th → 46th0.575%10.1 / 8.9
12Marley Mais '21Georgetown University Hoyas 214/142.001.49−0.5152nd → 38th1.584%11.5 / 9.1
13Bridget Groble '22Old Dominion University14/141.991.35−0.6451st → 31st2.584%11.6 / 9.2
14Patricia Corujo '21Cornell University Big Red 214/141.011.04+0.0323rd → 24th0.061%12.4 / 11.6
15Kate Bjerregaard '19St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 214/141.110.67−0.4425th → 17th0.979%13.2 / 11.4
16Halle Buescher '21Cornell University Big Red 314/141.010.56−0.4523rd → 15th1.089%14.2 / 11.6
17Bridget Lawless '21Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 214/141.490.10−1.3938th → 7th9.395%14.3 / 10.5

Conditions — 09/15/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1020.9 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 81°F   ↓ 70°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.9 kn
Gusts to 21.4 kn
From ENE (64°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine7.6 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1020.9 hPa Rain0.13 in

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →