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Carl Van Duyne Trophy

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Leo Boucher '22 3 4 1 2 2 5 3 3 5 1 4 2 35
Georgetown University Georgetown University Thomas Mccann '22 4 5 5 14 1 2 5 4 3 5 1 13 62
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Charles Carraway '22 1 3 3 1 9 6 1 9 8 2 11 9 63
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Nicholas Sessions '24 8 8 7 3 12 1 9 5 BKD 3 2 6 70
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy David Pearce '23 5 6 6 15 6 4 15 1 4 10 18 4 94
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Gavin Mcjones '23 10 9 8 8 5 3 11 15 1 12 14 3 99
Hampton University Hampton University Valerio Palamara '24 2 17 2 9 17 10 2 17 11 4 6 5 102
Georgetown University Georgetown University Diego Escobar '25 7 16 12 18 4 13 4 6 10 6 7 1 104
George Washington University George Washington University Cameron Feves '22 6 2 10 6 3 9 16 18 13 15 3 11 112
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Michael Burns '25 11 7 17 10 7 7 13 8 BKD 9 8 7 113
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Will Foox '24 9 14 9 7 8 17 6 14 12 13 5 10 124
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Lucas Sawin '25 16 18 14 12 10 8 12 2 6 11 9 12 130
Webb Institute Webb Institute Daniel Escudero '25 17 1 18 5 14 11 10 11 2 17 16 8 130
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Charlie Anderson '25 15 11 4 4 16 15 8 10 16 16 12 14 141
George Washington University George Washington University Michael Ehnot '22 13 10 15 13 15 16 7 7 7 7 15 17 142
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Keiran James Golden '24 12 15 11 16 11 14 14 16 14 8 10 18 159
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Spencer Barnes '24 14 13 13 11 RAF 12 17 12 9 14 13 15 162
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Pete Mcgriff '24 18 12 16 17 13 18 18 13 15 18 17 16 191

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  18 boats · 12 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Leo Boucher '22St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 212/124.645.76+1.1399th → 99th4.13%2.9 / 5.7
2Thomas Mccann '22Georgetown University Hoyas 112/124.004.45+0.4595th → 99th0.816%5.2 / 7.3
3Charles Carraway '22Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 112/123.944.50+0.5795th → 99th1.313%5.2 / 7.4
4Nicholas Sessions '24Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 212/123.444.39+0.9589th → 98th3.120%6.9 / 8.8
5David Pearce '23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 112/123.103.41+0.3084th → 89th0.421%7.8 / 9.8
6Gavin Mcjones '23U. S. Naval Academy12/123.453.60+0.1589th → 92nd0.142%8.2 / 8.8
7Valerio Palamara '24Hampton University12/123.263.05−0.2186th → 83rd0.237%8.5 / 9.3
8Diego Escobar '25Georgetown University Hoyas 212/123.223.23+0.0185th → 85th0.039%8.7 / 9.4
9Cameron Feves '22George Washington University Colonials 112/122.793.05+0.2675th → 83rd0.329%9.3 / 10.6
10Michael Burns '25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 312/122.993.40+0.4281st → 89th0.752%10.2 / 10.2
11Will Foox '24Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 312/122.683.12+0.4471st → 84th0.840%10.3 / 11.0
12Daniel Escudero '25Webb Institute12/123.422.49−0.9389th → 63rd4.381%10.8 / 8.9
12Lucas Sawin '25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 212/122.992.92−0.0781st → 79th0.064%10.8 / 10.1
14Charlie Anderson '25St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 112/122.792.57−0.2275th → 67th0.268%11.8 / 10.7
15Michael Ehnot '22George Washington University Colonials 212/122.952.77−0.1981st → 74th0.277%11.8 / 10.3
16Keiran James Golden '24St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 312/123.302.38−0.9287th → 61st4.697%13.2 / 9.3
17Spencer Barnes '24SUNY Maritime College12/122.692.68−0.0171st → 71st0.088%13.5 / 10.9
18Pete Mcgriff '24Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 412/122.131.46−0.6856th → 36th1.897%15.9 / 12.4

Conditions — 10/02/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1019.8 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.3 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 19.6 kn
From WSW (246°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover68% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1019.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Kings Point — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Kings Point in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kings Point by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (80 labelled fleet-race days at Kings Point).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →