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Carl Van Duyne MAISA Singles

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Leo Boucher '22 1 1 4 4 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 3 2 4 30
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Nicholas Sessions '24 5 9 3 1 9 5 6 6 4 6 1 4 1 1 61
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Keiran James Golden '24 7 10 7 7 10 3 3 1 3 1 2 1 7 5 67
Hampton University Hampton University Valerio Palamara '24 2 6 6 3 5 4 7 3 2 7 5 5 10 9 74
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Gavin Mcjones '23 4 2 5 5 2 8 5 8 10 3 10 11 11 10 94
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Charlie Anderson '25 11 11 10 2 8 11 2 4 11 5 4 8 8 3 98
Georgetown University Georgetown University Benjamin Smith '26 8 7 2 9 15 6 9 7 6 8 8 7 6 6 104
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Michael Burns '25 12 4 8 11 3 10 10 9 5 4 9 6 4 11 106
Georgetown University Georgetown University Diego Escobar '25 13 5 9 14 4 9 8 12 8 10 7 2 3 7 111
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy David Pearce '23 3 3 13 13 11 13 16 5 7 11 6 10 5 2 118
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University David Grace '23 6 13 1 16 6 2 13 10 9 9 11 13 9 8 126
Georgetown University Georgetown University Mateo Di Blasi '25 10 8 11 6 14 12 11 15 BKD 12 13 17 12 14 167
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Collin Porter '23 9 12 12 15 7 7 12 16 13 14 17 16 14 15 179
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Lucas Sawin '25 15 15 15 8 13 15 4 11 12 16 16 15 13 12 180
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Spencer Barnes '24 17 14 16 10 16 18 14 14 14 13 12 9 15 13 195
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Lars Osell '24 16 BKD 17 17 12 14 15 13 16 17 14 12 16 17 211
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Owen Harrod '26 14 16 14 12 17 16 18 18 15 15 15 14 17 16 217
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26 18 17 18 18 18 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 247

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  18 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Leo Boucher '22St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 114/144.816.34+1.5399th → 99th7.41%2.1 / 5.0
2Nicholas Sessions '24Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 114/143.904.78+0.8894th → 99th3.36%4.4 / 7.1
3Keiran James Golden '24St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 214/143.204.62+1.4285th → 99th8.11%4.8 / 9.0
4Valerio Palamara '24Hampton University14/143.584.51+0.9392nd → 99th3.88%5.3 / 8.1
5Gavin Mcjones '23U. S. Naval Academy14/143.803.90+0.1194th → 94th0.139%6.7 / 7.4
6Charlie Anderson '25St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 314/142.753.87+1.1273rd → 94th5.56%7.0 / 10.3
7Benjamin Smith '26Georgetown University Hoyas 314/143.003.80+0.7982nd → 94th2.916%7.4 / 9.6
8Michael Burns '25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 214/143.053.76+0.7183rd → 93rd2.419%7.6 / 9.5
9Diego Escobar '25Georgetown University Hoyas 214/143.313.55+0.2488th → 92nd0.336%7.9 / 8.8
10David Pearce '23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 114/143.123.28+0.1684th → 86th0.135%8.4 / 9.3
11David Grace '23Christopher Newport University14/142.713.22+0.5172nd → 85th1.329%9.0 / 10.5
12Mateo Di Blasi '25Georgetown University Hoyas 114/143.392.55−0.8489th → 67th4.397%12.4 / 8.6
13Collin Porter '23Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 314/142.372.37−0.0061st → 61st0.076%12.8 / 11.4
14Lucas Sawin '25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 314/142.952.28−0.6781st → 59th2.992%12.9 / 9.8
15Spencer Barnes '24SUNY Maritime College14/142.761.95−0.8174th → 50th4.097%13.9 / 10.3
16Lars Osell '24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 414/141.931.78−0.1549th → 44th0.190%15.4 / 12.3
17Owen Harrod '26Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 414/142.061.51−0.5453rd → 38th1.697%15.5 / 12.2
18Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 214/142.20-0.91−3.1158th → 1st29.4>99%17.6 / 11.8

Conditions — 10/01/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Dense drizzle
Humidity 90%  ·  Pressure 1011.0 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.8 kn
avg  ·  max 12.9 kn
Gusts to 30.5 kn
From NE (56°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine5.6 hrs Humidity90% Pressure1011.0 hPa Rain0.32 in

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →